Motivation is obviously key but lets break down what MOTIVATION really is?
Motivation in the first matchup was there for Purdue so hence the result of the blowout.
Motivation was not there for Boise State, but I can't just say that BOISE was not motivated, they lost to an equally talented team in ECU.
Now we can have a team who is more motivated vs a team that is less motivated, but it does not always mean the team with less motivation cannot win. Sometimes talent can overcome the motivation factor.
It is tough to know exactly the real mindest of PURDUE, perhaps they are unmotivated or perhaps they are motivated to get a bowl win or end the season with a WIN. I think if you take Central MICH you cannot rely on Motivation alone.
This game is a little different in that you have a team that has NO DEFENCE when they play good teams, they are pretty good offensively.
Historically though the team in Central MICHIGANS position has hit easy, and perhaps even with a straight Up win.
However the DEFENCE on Central MICH is not great and if PURDUE is somewhat motivated, I do not think CENT MICH will be a sure winner, because of the lack of the Defence on Central Michigan. Also the total is at 70 so I think either CENT MICH wins the game or if the lose i dont think they cover
Hi Sammy, I've been reading your posts and you usually have some good points to make and I agree with you 100% that motivation cannot be the sole reason for backing a team. But judging so far from the Bowl games we have seen, motivation is significant and the more talented teams we expected to perform did not perform to the level we expected (ie Boise State (I disagree with you on ECU being equally talented but I digress), BYU, Utah).
Do I think CMU will win? Not enough to take the ML. But I think the right play on the side is +7.5 and up for the following reasons:
1) As you mentioned, CMU is more than respectable when it comes to offense. They are led by a QB who can hurt you either on the ground or through the air (yes I recognize that he has done most of his damage on the ground against weaker teams) while having a respectable run game in Hoskins. If Lefevour can maintain composure, he can keep his O on the field for long, time consuming drives. What this amounts to is that certainly, CMU's D is, well, awful, but not CMU's offense is more than capable of answering back, especially against a Purdue D that has been more or less mediocre.
2) Home field Advantage: CMU has played on this field before and will certainly have more fans in the stands than Purdue. Does this really matter in the grand scheme of things? Maybe not, but the surface certainly plays into CMU's strengths on offense and familiarity with the field never hurts.
3) I just cannot fight the gut feeling that we are going to see something similar to what occurred with Navy/Utah: I noticed a lot of people on the board saying they just couldn't trust the secondary of Navy, thus a play on Utah and I understand why people would say the same thing for this game. But not unlike what we saw with BYU/UCLA, both teams have had time to make adjustments, and to expect to see the same result of what occurred earlier in the season might not be the way to go.
Is Purdue the more talented squad, without a doubt. But I can't ignore the fact that Purdue ended its season on a terrible skid and I believe that Purdue as a squad thinks it is too good to be in such an inferior bowl game. CMU will have had the benefit of proper prep close to home over the holidays, while Purdue did not have the same luxury.
I think Purdue will likely pull this out - but I suspect it will come down to the wire via a late TD/FG in the 4th quarter or we will witness a backdoor cover. A TD plus is just too much in this one for me.
GL with your plays tonight everyone