MOT Week 8

[M.O.T]

First plays since the end of September after sitting out a few weeks to evaluate things a little differently. Wasn't around for openers so I'm going a little more by feel and matchup this week, and hope to jump back in and catch some numbers for next week on Sunday.

Season 23-22-2 (-4.65)

Texas State +6
Texas ML (+120) (.5u)
Missouri -7 (+110)
TCU +6.5 (2u)

 

[Timh]

BOL MOT - I know you have prob watched Missouri more than I have, and was wondering what your thoughts were on the tempo of this game. I figure it to be close to 164-165 plays which is pretty high tempo but the OE (PTS per play) for MO. isn't really all that impressive for the season (.312 pp). Do you think that is a factor of the defenses they have played to date, and that they should do much better here against a class relief defense like MTSU. I kind of want to play over here, but haven't pulled the trigger.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

wb, MOT... GL this week

 

[M.O.T]

Thanks G4M.

Tim I'm not the best to ask as I don't play a lot of totals, just some team numbers I like here or there, so I don't do a ton of analysis beyond general pace as it relates to whatever side I'm considering.

My play on Missouri is a combination of class relief and the spot for MTSU after a tough conference loss in a big game last week. I saw Missouri in person against LSU and thought their two biggest issues that night were being pushed around by LSU's OL and the LSU secondary playing one of its better games of the last couple seasons after the run was taken away.

We know Missouri wants to play fast and I believe MTSU will as well. Based on what similar style offenses have done to MTSU I feel like Missouri can get into the 40's and come up with enough stops to cover.

Maybe the over is an issue if MTSU thinks their best chance to win the game is to slow it down and try to play keep away? Or if they're forced to grind out drives by relying on the run or short passing game, and are unable to hold up their end of the scoring?

 

[Timh]

Thanks G4M.

Tim I'm not the best to ask as I don't play a lot of totals, just some team numbers I like here or there, so I don't do a ton of analysis beyond general pace as it relates to whatever side I'm considering.

My play on Missouri is a combination of class relief and the spot for MTSU after a tough conference loss in a big game last week. I saw Missouri in person against LSU and thought their two biggest issues that night were being pushed around by LSU's OL and the LSU secondary playing one of its better games of the last couple seasons after the run was taken away.

We know Missouri wants to play fast and I believe MTSU will as well. Based on what similar style offenses have done to MTSU I feel like Missouri can get into the 40's and come up with enough stops to cover.

Maybe the over is an issue if MTSU thinks their best chance to win the game is to slow it down and try to play keep away? Or if they're forced to grind out drives by relying on the run or short passing game, and are unable to hold up their end of the scoring?

Thanks MOT, appreciate your thoughts very helpful.

 

[CrimsonK]

My .02 on the MTSU pace question. I think for them to slow down would almost totally defeat their identity and what they want to do on offense. Not saying it couldn't happen, that just isn't my concern as an OV bettor on this total. My concern is their short/quick passing offense gets somewhat stifled against a defense that is superior athletically to what they see week in and week out. I don't think that will necessarily happen but I'm pretty sure Mizzou carries most the weight of the total. I would be very surprised if they didn't score 40+

 

[M.O.T]

Added Boise -7

 

[M.O.T]

Boise 2nd half TT O17 (+100)