Most Improved Teams -- 2008

[Blue_Chip]

At the request of vegaskyle, I will start this thread to mirror etg's thread on teams that might regress in the 2008 season. As etg's thread should provide info to narrow the range of teams to fade, this thread can provide info to narrow the range of teams to look for as live dogs that may still be flying under the radar. I will add some thoughts of my own and include plenty of info from Steele. I figure after we load this thread down with info, comment, and opinion, one of the mods can clean it up and sticky it like BAR offered to do with etg's thread.

Here we go...

 

[Blue_Chip]

Steele's List of 2008's Most Improved Teams:

1. Notre Dame
2. UNC
3. Northern Illinois
4. Pitt
5. South Carolina
6. SMU
7. Miami FL
8. Western Michigan
9. Ole Miss
10. Maryland
11. Minnesota
12. Nebraska
13. Arizona
14. Kent St
15. Northwestern
16. Marshall
17. Louisville
18. Nevada
19. New Mexico St
20. Miami OH
21. Iowa
22. Wyoming
23. San Jose St

 

[Blue_Chip]

UNC

• return 18 starters
• 2nd yr of Butch Davis' new systems
• suffered 6 close losses last yr
• I'm looking to bet them in Wk1 versus McNeese St. Early line release has the Tar Heels as 13pt faves; I say the Heels roll by a minimum of 3 TD's

 

[Blue_Chip]

Pitt

• three times inside opponent's 10yd line at end of game, needed a TD to win, and twice had TD's called back!
• return 15 starters
• arguably the best defense in the Big East. USF has the nastiest front seven but lost both CB's to the NFL
• Pitt showed its capability to compete by upsetting WVU in the conference championship game last yr

 

[Dmoney416]

I really like Northern Illinois this season. I think they have everything going for them and will be a great team to bet.

Cons:

- New coach comes in: Jerry Kill. He replaces Novak, who had been there forever. Still, Kill headed the Southern Illinois squad that beat NIUJ last season, so he should have some familiarity with the team right off the bat.

Pros:

- 21 returning starters, including the entire defense. They return 55 of 64 lettermen from last season, including 18 of their 19 tacklers! So, not only are the starters back, the depth is as well. Larry English won the MAC MVP last year with 10.5 sacks, and should anchor this defense again. Steele has 8 senior starters on this defense.

- They lost five game by six points or less last season. They lost to Southern Illinois despit being up 10 with a minute left, they blew a 13-0 lead against EMU, and lost on a last-second FG against Temple.

- They were -17 in turnover margin last season. Hard to see them replicating that statistic.

- The schedule is balanced. They have early tests @Minnesota, @Western Michigan, and @Tennessee, all of which should prepare them well for conference play. At the same time, they have early opportunities for wins with games vs. Indiana St. and @Eastern Mich.

- They have arguably the best situational spot in the NCAA against Toledo on October 18th. Toledo beat them 70-21 last season, a game where Toledo ran for 382 yards and passed for 430. Huge revenge game for Northern Illinois. It also NIU's homecoming and Toledo must play the game between games @Michigan and vs. Central Michigan.

 

[Dmoney416]

As a side note, is there a reason why Pittsburgh is being touted as the BE's best defense? I have no doubts that they will be solid, but it seems like a bit of a stretch to me.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Ole Miss

• return top 14 tacklers
• should improved on the turnover factor (-10 last yr)
• should rack up early season wins. 3-1 or 4-0 start
• I will be looking to bet Ole Miss as a big dog in SEC play.
• On road at: Florida, Bama, Arkansas, LSU.
• Host Vandy, SCar, Auburn, and Miss St in Oxford.
• hoping for a short line when Vandy visits, as Ole Miss will be looking for revenge from last yr's 31-17 spanking in Nashville (unlikely because it is known Vandy will be bad)
• maybe a big dog when traveling to the Swamp. Ole Miss plays UF tight historically, although the two met last yr for first time since 2003
• Oct 18 - Nov 1, Rebs play three straight SEC West games... look for close games and bet accordingly
• host SCar on Oct 4. This is Ole Miss homecoming, so they may be playing with extra motivation. track the early season progress of both teams before betting this one.

RambleOn, chime in on your Rebs...

 

[Blue_Chip]

is there a reason why Pittsburgh is being touted as the BE's best defense?

It seems like a tall task to be better than Selvie, McKenzie, and the rest of that stout front seven USF is sporting this yr. Pitt's toughest road game will be against USF on Oct 2.

I look at Pitt as my betting opportunity to cash on unders. When Pitt plays a weak offensive team and/or one with bad run defense, I will be looking for reasons to not bet the under: good defense and McCoy running the ball means clock control for the Panthers.

 

[TheGarfather]

Nice try Phillip, but if you're going to list 1/6 of all teams as being improved then it doesn't really count. He'll be right on half and wrong on half.

Mississippi is a team that looks to me - at least on paper - like they are ready for a nice season and maybe even a bowl game.

 

[RetroVK]

Well i am in love with maryland this year.

Also think kent state is poised for a bounceback year.

 

[JPicks]

Wyoming will only be improved if they can find a QB that isn't color blind with vaseline on his hands. D is and has been solid forever, but they have a gigantic hole at the QB spot.

UNLV on the other hand is a team that I think should be quite good as long as they put Omar at the QB spot and leave him there. I was a bit dissapointed that Steele had them as his 4th MWC team as I'd prefer nobody thought about them at all. I will say that I think they'll be much improved as long as they are dogs. The second they're favorites I'm running.

 

[Joe Public]

1. Notre Dame

Seriously? How does the bandwagon on this team continue to roll like this?

Though I guess they can really only be better, eh?

 

[Joe Public]

Yeah, we need some Mogo action (and others) to vet Steele's Pitt claim.

 

[Schrute]

In terms of talent I think Fresno will be great. Now their record may not be any better b/c of their schedule including games at Rutgers, vs Wisconsin and at UCLA. They may win 2 of those games IMO. They then finish the season at Boise. IMO they have the talent to go undefeated and I will likely be on them in the first 2 weeks. However, close losses in 2 of the first 3 games will make them an easy bet for the next 3-4 weeks as the oddsmakers adjust. Also, the general public likely won't realize just how talented Pat Hill's squad is and we should get some inflated lines against Rutgers and Wisky. Steele has them 2nd behind Boise in the WAC but I think they are the better squad. However they do have to travel to Idaho which could be the difference maker

 

[cubsker]

no way the Huskers could be any worse

 

[RetroVK]

speaking of idaho ....... the other team from idaho will be greatly improved from a betting perspective. Really think Idaho keeps a few games closer this year. They will still struggle of course ... just talking about ATS as they return a lot of starters and at key spots.

 

[Blue_Chip]

no way the Huskers could be any worse

Nebraska could raise some eyebrows this year, but nothing too big. The B12 is OU's for the taking and TT's for the stealing. Personally, I will be rooting for the Red Raiders as Leach has made me much cash with his no mercy rule on teams.

 

[RetroVK]

Nebraska could raise some eyebrows this year, but nothing too big. The B12 is OU's for the taking and TT's for the stealing. Personally, I will be rooting for the Red Raiders as Leach has made me much cash with his no mercy rule on teams.

Whew , atleast now i know there will be one person in hell that i like for me to talk to when i get there....

 

[G-Man]

Steele missed Ohio State. Why? Because they will roll to the top in the BSC Championship game unless they lose a key RB or QB. They went 11-2 and return 19 starters. Completely unheard of after playing in a BCS game. Also most returning starters of any conference projected champion for this year as well -I think?

After they win it all, it would be safe to say that they are the most improved team because they will win the most important game.

They likely will cover the spread the first 7 meaningful games of the season (After playing Youngstown and Ohio).

After the bye week they may be bet on too heavily to cover a spread better than once out of the last 3 played. They'll probably just cover against Michigan.

 

[JPicks]

Steele missed Ohio State. Why? Because they will roll to the top in the BSC Championship game unless they lose a key RB or QB. They went 11-2 and return 19 starters. Completely unheard of after playing in a BCS game. Also most returning starters of any conference projected champion for this year as well -I think?

After they win it all, it would be safe to say that they are the most improved team because they will win the most important game.

They likely will cover the spread the first 7 meaningful games of the season (After playing Youngstown and Ohio).

After the bye week they may be bet on too heavily to cover a spread better than once out of the last 3 played. They'll probably just cover against Michigan.

Really G-Man? You want a team that has lost two consecutive National title games to be included in Phil Steele's most improved list? I think the entire intention of most improved lists is to find "gems in the rough". Betting on OSU isn't exactly what I'd call a gem in the rough but to each his own.

Are you assuming a win at USC? If you are much respect. In this day and age of CFB it's really dumb of both teams to even play this game, but I'd be more than surprised if OSU went down to So. Cal and won, but that's just my opinion.

 

[E.T.G.]

Steele missed Ohio State. Why? Because they will roll to the top in the BSC Championship game unless they lose a key RB or QB. They went 11-2 and return 19 starters. Completely unheard of after playing in a BCS game. Also most returning starters of any conference projected champion for this year as well -I think?

After they win it all, it would be safe to say that they are the most improved team because they will win the most important game.

They likely will cover the spread the first 7 meaningful games of the season (After playing Youngstown and Ohio).

After the bye week they may be bet on too heavily to cover a spread better than once out of the last 3 played. They'll probably just cover against Michigan.

you can have all 22 back from the NCG, maybe it will be 34-20 this time :36_11_6:



in all seriousness, you guys will be good but i'm certainly not rooting for you to go 12-0

 

[lindetrain]

Northwestern...look at that schedule. They were a very quiet 6-6 last year, which I think sets this season up nicely as they gained some confidence from nearly reaching the postseason. A lot coming back, and an offense which I'm very high on. If things really fall in place, they could potentially be looking at a New Year Day's Bowl, or something close to it.

 

[lindetrain]

I'll try and provide a little bit more to these threads when I get through the conferences...

 

[sirwinzalot]

First post in a long time, getting ready to gear up again starting college football. Really like the tarheels this year, they should be much improved. Think Nebraska could surprise, Callahan recruited well just could not motivate or coach. Would not be surprised to see Texas surprise a bit, like the way they finished off with the bowl performance.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Northwestern...look at that schedule. They were a very quiet 6-6 last year, which I think sets this season up nicely as they gained some confidence from nearly reaching the postseason. A lot coming back, and an offense which I'm very high on. If things really fall in place, they could potentially be looking at a New Year Day's Bowl, or something close to it.

very nice observation. i was going to comment on northwestern later, but i agree that they could surprise this yr. that schedule is beautiful -- no wisconsin and no penn st in conf play this yr! expereinced qb, no huddle offense, 8 starters return on defense. things are looking up for the cats.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Really like the tarheels this year, they should be much improved. Think Nebraska could surprise

unc should have very nice improvement this yr. already looking to bet them in wk1 against mcneese laying less than 2 td's. the huskers could be decent too.