Mort The Flying Cow
Pretty much a regular
Came close on a number of plays last week, but close doesn’t cut it, so it’s time to break down this week, and there are a few games I really like. If there are any dissenting opinions, I’d love to see them. I’m not locking these in just yet so these are all STRONG leans.
PLAYS
Western Michigan -5 @ Temple: I started the season the Temple bandwagon and I think Al Golden is a good coach who will get a new job soon. But, when you are coaching a team that has been very bad for a very long team, you have to teach them to win. Temple had the chance to beat UConn and couldn’t put it away. Then they had the chance to beat Buffalo and three DBs couldn’t stop Naaman Roosevelt from catching the winning TD. Then, they held Penn St scoreless for the first quarter, before getting slaughtered (and losing their QB in the process). Western LOVES to score points and might play defense. Temple plays defense from time to time but doesn’t really score points. Advantage WMU. The Broncos smell blood in the water around the Chips and with Dante Love’s injury, the Broncos have a solid shot at winning the MAC. This win helps get them there.
Nevada ML (+155) @ UNLV: Gotta balance the road chalk with an underdog. This will likely turn in to a ML bet for me, honestly. UNLV is in a very tough spot. They are at an emotional high. They beat ranked Ariz St in OT. Then they got revenge on Iowa St for a questionable finish two seasons ago in Ames. After two, tough, emotional, hard-fought wins, the Rebels now have to get up for a RIVALRY game? Nevada will run all over the Rebels and wear them out in the end. There is no shame in getting destroyed by Missouri in Columbia. And Nevada gave Texas Tech a scare, until talent finally won out (plus a goalline fumble by Kaepernick). Nevada has had two weeks to prepare and gameplan. UNLV has two weeks of draining wins. Both teams are in a perfect spot for a Nevada W.
South Florida -10 @ North Carolian State: More road chalk! South Florida impressed the hell outta me in the win over Kansas. NCSt played an overrated East Carolina team and needed some luck to pull off that win. If the Wolfpack lose that game, this line is probably closer to 13, IMO. This is a tale of a bad conference and an overvalued win combining to create a nice line. Take the Bulls.
Pittsburgh -16 @ Syracuse: Concerned that I like FIVE road teams, but they are all playing bad home teams. This is my least confident play because The ‘Stache can always screw something up. But Syracuse is just awful and there is NO reason to think they will be able to stay in this game. That being said, there is also no way they should have beat Louisville last season, but they did. Talk me off this game, because I don’t have a problem betting against really, really, really, really bad football teams.
Houston +11.5 @ East Carolina: As SHSUHorn brought this to my attention, I had looked at it, but had too many questions about Houston. I think ECU comes out flat after losing to NC State. I think Houston is fully prepared mentally and will move the ball effectively against ECU. Also took Houston ML +330.
Weber State +39.5 @ Utah: In the MWC thread, (I can't think of who is the MWC expert, but props to him) it was brought up that Ron McBride, former Utah coach, will be honored at the game today. He also coaches Weber State. Utah plays Oregon State next week (Thur), so they should pull starters and won't run up the score. Whittingham knows that the pollsters are wanting a blowout. But 45-17 looks dominating, but isn't covering. Look for Weber State to get a late TD against Utah's second-string D to possibly backdoor, if necessary.
PLAYS
Western Michigan -5 @ Temple: I started the season the Temple bandwagon and I think Al Golden is a good coach who will get a new job soon. But, when you are coaching a team that has been very bad for a very long team, you have to teach them to win. Temple had the chance to beat UConn and couldn’t put it away. Then they had the chance to beat Buffalo and three DBs couldn’t stop Naaman Roosevelt from catching the winning TD. Then, they held Penn St scoreless for the first quarter, before getting slaughtered (and losing their QB in the process). Western LOVES to score points and might play defense. Temple plays defense from time to time but doesn’t really score points. Advantage WMU. The Broncos smell blood in the water around the Chips and with Dante Love’s injury, the Broncos have a solid shot at winning the MAC. This win helps get them there.
Nevada ML (+155) @ UNLV: Gotta balance the road chalk with an underdog. This will likely turn in to a ML bet for me, honestly. UNLV is in a very tough spot. They are at an emotional high. They beat ranked Ariz St in OT. Then they got revenge on Iowa St for a questionable finish two seasons ago in Ames. After two, tough, emotional, hard-fought wins, the Rebels now have to get up for a RIVALRY game? Nevada will run all over the Rebels and wear them out in the end. There is no shame in getting destroyed by Missouri in Columbia. And Nevada gave Texas Tech a scare, until talent finally won out (plus a goalline fumble by Kaepernick). Nevada has had two weeks to prepare and gameplan. UNLV has two weeks of draining wins. Both teams are in a perfect spot for a Nevada W.
South Florida -10 @ North Carolian State: More road chalk! South Florida impressed the hell outta me in the win over Kansas. NCSt played an overrated East Carolina team and needed some luck to pull off that win. If the Wolfpack lose that game, this line is probably closer to 13, IMO. This is a tale of a bad conference and an overvalued win combining to create a nice line. Take the Bulls.
Pittsburgh -16 @ Syracuse: Concerned that I like FIVE road teams, but they are all playing bad home teams. This is my least confident play because The ‘Stache can always screw something up. But Syracuse is just awful and there is NO reason to think they will be able to stay in this game. That being said, there is also no way they should have beat Louisville last season, but they did. Talk me off this game, because I don’t have a problem betting against really, really, really, really bad football teams.
Houston +11.5 @ East Carolina: As SHSUHorn brought this to my attention, I had looked at it, but had too many questions about Houston. I think ECU comes out flat after losing to NC State. I think Houston is fully prepared mentally and will move the ball effectively against ECU. Also took Houston ML +330.
Weber State +39.5 @ Utah: In the MWC thread, (I can't think of who is the MWC expert, but props to him) it was brought up that Ron McBride, former Utah coach, will be honored at the game today. He also coaches Weber State. Utah plays Oregon State next week (Thur), so they should pull starters and won't run up the score. Whittingham knows that the pollsters are wanting a blowout. But 45-17 looks dominating, but isn't covering. Look for Weber State to get a late TD against Utah's second-string D to possibly backdoor, if necessary.
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