Mort's Flying Picks: Week 3

Mort The Flying Cow

Pretty much a regular
Alright, jumping on a few lines early, though I usually wait...

Central Michigan -3 @ Ohio: Really? Three points? THREE POINTS?!? Ok, sure, CMU just got their tits peeled on national TV and Ohio put THE Ohio State University on the ropes. But Ohio is NOWHERE near that good, and the Chips are NOWHERE near that bad. Dan LeFevour didn't run like he normally does and the Chips played for experience, not to win. An injury to LeFevour or another player kills their season, a big loss to UGa doesn't. The Chips are focused on the MAC title and that starts with a whooping of Ohio. I'd like this line at -10, much less -3.

Arizona -11 @ New Mexico: The Lobos like to lose, apparently. They self-destructed against TCU, then did it again against Texas A&M. Neither team has an offense like Arizona. And, to be fair, Zona has a pretty good defense so far this year. Even if UNM decides to not screw themselves, Arizona will put this game away in the second half. Rocky Long will have his team ready to play and avoid an 0-3 start, AT HOME. But he needed to win against A&M, because he won't do it against the Wildcats.

Cal -15 @ Maryland: Ok, Cal is flying cross-country, for a morning game. That is a concern. What isn't a concern? Maryland. From all accounts, Maryland and Middle Tennessee are identical in athleticism. Change the uniform and you'd never know the difference. Even if Cal is a little sluggish from the trip, they will still be significantly better than Maryland. Maryland has no offense and won't stop Jahvid Best.

ADDED
Houston -4.5 @ Air Force: Don't need to share my thoughts, just see SHSUHorn's post <a href=http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64112><b>Here</b></a> and my comments on page 2.

Georgia Tech +7 @ Virginia Tech: This will be like the Boston College game, only VT has a worse offense right now. Very defensive struggle which means it should be easy for GT to stay within 7 points, if not win outright. I split my unit in half and took GT+7 and the GT ML at +250. I love Paul Johnson and the option offense and it is working. The fewer passes Nesbitt makes, though, the more comfortable I feel.

<b>Baylor -4.5</b> vs Washington State: I've been eying Baylor since the lines came out, but both teams are just so bad, it was hard to favor one over the other. Now, with the game being bumped up, Wazzo on some CIA-like "get in, get out" gameplan, and Robert Griffin being the only real playmaker on the field, I've jumped on the Bears.
 
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Good looking card. I like Cal but not getting the number I wanted. It is just rocketing off the charts.

I have the same feelings about CMU, somthing is making me hold back right now though.

GL this week.
 
I have the same feelings about CMU, somthing is making me hold back right now though.

GL this week.

No doubt. My CMU guys are confident that it is a two TD game, if not more. They said that if Ohio has their way, it'll be a VERY slow-paced game and they keep it low scoring. I'm just not sure they can slow down CMU enough to be effective.

Said that LeFevour would be turned loose, which he didn't have the option to do vs. Ohio State (see: avoid injury).

From what I can tell, the CMU fans (see: not "my guys", just the fans in general) are also pleased with how their defense played against Georgia, all things considered.

For all intents and purposes, this line is ridiculously off. I don't know why, but I've already grabbed the cheese. Saturday I find out if I got caught in the trap who snuck away with a tasty snack.
 
Already love Cal and Arizona, and after reading your thoughts and looking things over a bit more I'm really starting to like CMU.

Good luck this week.
 
No doubt. My CMU guys are confident that it is a two TD game, if not more. They said that if Ohio has their way, it'll be a VERY slow-paced game and they keep it low scoring. I'm just not sure they can slow down CMU enough to be effective.

Said that LeFevour would be turned loose, which he didn't have the option to do vs. Ohio State (see: avoid injury).

From what I can tell, the CMU fans (see: not "my guys", just the fans in general) are also pleased with how their defense played against Georgia, all things considered.

For all intents and purposes, this line is ridiculously off. I don't know why, but I've already grabbed the cheese. Saturday I find out if I got caught in the trap who snuck away with a tasty snack.

Imma getting closer on this...

good stuff:shake:
 
One play added, thanks to SHSUHorn and his mighty powers of persuasion.

GL to all!

That's if we have the damn game with Hurricane Ike coming. I'm staying no matter what just went and got all the supplies needed just in case power goes out for a couple of days.

Water, weed, and some dry foods.
 
That's if we have the damn game with Hurricane Ike coming. I'm staying no matter what just went and got all the supplies needed just in case power goes out for a couple of days.

Water, weed, and some dry foods.

:36_11_6:

The bare neccessities.
 
Mort what is your take on Oregon this weekend? sucker play?

Honestly, I don't really have a strong feeling. Oregon's passing game is a concern. It's not like Purdue is unfamiliar with run-heavy teams, which is exactly what Oregon's team is this year.

Washington isn't a complete pushover and the Ducks dominated that game.

The last two years, Purdue is 1-3 ATS as a home dog, beating a very avg Minny team in 06. Purdue doesn't much seem to care for big games, at home or on the road. They are 2-3 ATS against Top 25 teams, including a a hook cover vs ND in 2006, so on the verge of 1-4.

Oregon is going to win outright, the question is the current hook at -7.5. I have always LOATHED that hook and been bitten by it numerous times (as I'm sure many of us have).

If forced to play this game with a gun to my head, I take Oregon -7.5 and their pass D against Purdue.

In the end, though, for me, it's a no-play because I'm just not comfortable with information I have on Purdue's team this year. Congrats, you beat Northern Colorado. Bow down at the feet of Joe Tiller? No thanks.
 
I'd just like to go on record and say that Arizona's defense sucks. No opinion on the game...slight lean NM.

Good luck this weekend.
 
Ouch

Well, I headed out of town Sunday, but what a horrible day.

2-3-1 overall.

Was shocked by a lot of outcomes on Saturday.

Ike was a wash. Positive impact on Baylor, negative on Houston.
New Mexico was backed in a corner.
Cal/Maryland is still a mystery to me, as is the C Mich/Ohio game. Wish I could have seen it.

As for GT, glad that came through, although by splitting on the line and ML, I lost overall. Awesome.
 
New Mexico was backed in a corner.

yup . i undervalued that factor as well. We will get them this week mort.
 
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