Monte Carlo Masters

[KJ]

Not a major but it might as well be

First time I can bet my favorite clay court player ever

Stan looks great, betting him on his service game at -315 ish while we still can. Hard to post the play but he looks awesome when he controls the point. First service game he was -240 before, now up to -435 and will only go up. Probably been 3 years since I've seen the guy, looks world class already

 

[KJ]

-370 on his serve for game 6

Books likely are leery with all the time he's had off for foot surgeries but these are gift lines, they'll soon be -600 or higher once he proves that he's back

 

[KJ]

Lots of things to like after the hiatus but definitely has a ton of work to do. 3rd set looks uncomfortable and has become all upper body. Really not sure he's capable of handling the French, winning 3 sets seems a tough ask at this point

 

[KJ]

Riding Sinner service games right now, do not think he gets broken this match

His odds might still be great on clay this Summer, when he gets draws against huge servers they won't line him correctly. He'll do the occasional break while those guys won't break him.

 

[KJ]

Also w/Sinner...if you're patient and can take him on service games where he falls behind 0-15 or even better 0-30, then line will be incredible and he still rarely gets broken. Fun one to play on.

 

[brewers888]

I figured Stan had retired.

 

[KJ]

I figured Stan had retired.

He looked awesome the first set and a half, then you could tell he needs more cardio and simply work in general

Got to a point in the third set he was shaking the left foot and not sure if it was injured or just been so long since it's been worked out and learning to be comfy with it.

Really a great performance all things considered, just needs to get some reps. I don't think he can handle a major yet but there was a lot to like early.

 

[KJ]

It's so difficult to break serve on the best in the world, this tournament is great to bet the fringe top 10 guys like Ruud, Herkacz, Alcaraz, even Nick

Patience and just laying the wood on their service games here has treated me well over the years

 

[KJ]

Hubie has gone from -475 in game 2 to -625 now for game 10

Still a bargain imo

 

[ScopeY]

man, I got in late, wanted to do the 6-0/1 and breaks for fokina if it went to set 3.... I did it after his first break and in the middle of his service game, and was able to get +5500/+2800, breaks are +300+.. worth it.

 

[ScopeY]

Taking Fokina +125 live decently, going to keep taking breaks, and adding a tiny bit (on already a tiny bit) on 6-1/6-2 now +4000/+1200.

 

[ScopeY]

double fault! lets go

 

[ScopeY]

broke em! up 4-1 serving.... ml already up to -550

 

[ScopeY]

Tennis is the fucking best.... being able to take advantage of live lines in an individual sport like this is huge, can be faster than the markets movement

 

[ScopeY]

game 6 break down to +245... on it

 

[ScopeY]

another double, phew

 

[KJ]

Get it!

Still getting the dust off the eyes and trying to convince myself it's not Monday

 

[ScopeY]

here we go.. break point for 6-1!

 

[ScopeY]

match point* I should say

 

[ScopeY]

that evaporated quickly, haha

 

[ScopeY]

another double!... just let it go for the day joker

 

[KJ]

Cable company pulled that dirty trick and changed channel numbers on me, might have to spend half the day figuring this shit out

 

[ScopeY]

Match/Break point #2

 

[ScopeY]

Lets go!

 

[ScopeY]

 

[ScopeY]

2 more Monte Carlo's today

 

[KJ]

Crazy that Joker has been bounced so early, starting to plant the seed that after the Aussie debacle he might be going down the path of checking out and just enjoying life. Takes so much intensity to play at the level we know he has/had, not sure he gives a shit to get back there.

 

[KJ]

Fognini +3.5 +120 4*
Fognini ML +250 1.5*
Grigor -3.5 -105 2*

Completely off the cuff

 

[ScopeY]

doing 6-0/1 on Tsitsi and playing breaks.... Fognini didnt even win 50% of his first serves.

 

[ScopeY]

for set 2

 

[KJ]

doing 6-0/1 on Tsitsi and playing breaks.... Fognini didnt even win 50% of his first serves.

Will say that if he does that he'll be off the fade list which he's been on for a lot of months

 

[ScopeY]

its also a play against foginini.. set down and has blow up potential

 

[ScopeY]

still +165 to break...

 

[KJ]

its also a play against foginini.. set down and has blow up potential

Italian blow ups are only second to Kyrgios blowups

Didn't realize that Fognini is actually French, heard an interview yesterday and definitely NOT Italian

 

[ScopeY]

double faulted to break! and slams his racket.

 

[ScopeY]

breaks down to +120

 

[ScopeY]

still took it.

 

[ScopeY]

b2b doubles!

 

[ScopeY]

3 of last 4 serves were doubles

 

[ScopeY]

ggz... just hold serve and +2200 plus 3 breaks cashes

 

[ScopeY]

Going to play Grigor ML -190... and moved to -210 as I speak

 

[ScopeY]

hoping he wins this set by 3 for ya

 

[KJ]

hoping he wins this set by 3 for ya

Got brains scramble with all the day sports today, haven't seen one point

 

[ScopeY]

taking game 7 break +145

 

[ScopeY]

we saw Lajovic breakdown after being broke in the 2nd... think he may lose hope if grigor holds here

 

[ScopeY]

damn, had 15-40... . now has break point for 3rd time.

 

[ScopeY]

double faults! haha

 

[ScopeY]

:cheers3:

 

[ScopeY]

Took set 2 6-0/1 on zverev...and playing breaks

 

[ScopeY]

How breaks are +180 is beyond me