3 Best Bets July 24: Reds, Rangers, and Blue Jays Are Road Warriors
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, July 23, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Who Starts for the Reds?
Cincinnati starts Graham Ashcraft tonight.
Ashcraft is a perfect example of why ERA is a dangerous statistic.
His high ERA suggests that he has performed poorly this season.
However, his ERA is so high merely because he suffered some terrible starts in May and June.
His performances in those months are irrelevant to his current form.
What matters is, therefore, not his ERA but the fact that he has allowed a combined total of five earned runs in his last four starts while lasting at least six innings in each of them.
Ashcraft is doing a great job of minimizing hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground.
He has sustained his strong form even against a Giants team that scores the seventh-most runs per game on the road.
Ashcraft vs. Brewers Lineup
Ashcraft throws a cutter, slider, and sinker.
He matches up well against a Brewers lineup that ranks 21st with a .387 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Colin Rea starts for the Brewers tonight.
Rea does not share Ashcraft's strong form.
While Rea's last opponent did not punish him with runs, Rea continued in his last start to struggle to induce soft contact.
Two starts ago, he induced soft contact 7.1 percent of the time.
In his last start, he did not induce any soft contact.
Rea vs. Reds Batters
Rea faces a sizzling Reds team that has scored 28 runs during its ongoing five-game win streak.
During this streak, Cincinnati is slugging .577 against Rea's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Reds ML at +100 with BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Monday, July 24, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for Texas?
Jon Gray starts for the Rangers today.
Texas is favored only slightly because it's playing on the road and oddsmakers assume that road teams are disadvantaged.
However, the most important Rangers' player today, its starting pitcher, thrives on the road.
Whereas Gray's ERA is 4.13 at home, it is 2.31 on the road.
Gray's Arsenal
Gray throws a good mixture of pitches: a fastball, slider, changeup, sweeper, and curveball.
His fastball is serviceable: it enjoys nice velocity and relatively strong horizontal movement.
When he needs to, he can rely to a unique extent on each of his four other pitches.
These four other pitches yield a BA of below .205.
His second-, third-, and fourth-most frequent pitches are his slider, changeup, and sweeper.
These pitches each yield a slugging rate below .280.
Gray vs. Astros Batters
Hitting-wise, Houston's outlook is negative today.
The Astros rank 20th with a .398 slugging rate against Gray's pitches from righties.
Whereas the Rangers hit well in Houston, the Astros do not.
Their slugging rate against Gray's pitches from righties drops to .382 at home.
Who Starts for Houston?
Brandon Bielak starts for Houston today.
His ERA looks nice, but it masks a 5.14 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reveals how poorly he's actually performing individually.
Bielak has benefitted from a fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and from an unsustainably high strand rate.
His outlook tonight is especially negative because Texas ranks fourth with a .453 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Rangers ML at -109 with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, July 24, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for Toronto?
Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays today.
Berrios enters tonight's game in strong form: he has allowed a combined total of three runs in his past three games.
His form is particularly impressive because he's sustained it against tough matchups.
On July 14, for example, he held Arizona to one run in 5.1 innings.
Berrios' current success in July consists with his career-long tendency to be at his best in the month of July.
More extensively, though, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his past eleven starts.
During this stretch, he's locked down the likes of Tampa Bay.
Berrios' Uniqueness
Berrios is a rare pitcher whose most frequent pitch is a slurve.
This pitch enjoys a lot of spin and horizontal movement.
Its strong velocity differential relative to his other pitches also creates a strong change of pace that keeps batters off-balance.
He also locates this pitch well, often burying it low in the strike zone whereby it complements especially his fastball which he likes to elevate.
Who Starts for the Dodgers?
Michael Grove starts for L.A. tonight.
While Grove is coming off a strong start, this constitutes in my mind a strike against him because he typically follows a good performance with a poor one.
Toronto's Lineup vs. Grove
Toronto's hitting outlook is solid tonight because it slugs .431 against Grove's pitches, the fastball, slider, curveball, and cutter, from righties.
Plus, Grove is clearly a fly ball pitcher. Toronto slugs .455 against fly ball pitchers compared to .378 against ground ball pitchers.
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML at +109 with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, July 23, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Who Starts for the Reds?
- Graham Ashcraft enjoys strong from
- The Reds are red-hot
- During their hot streak, the Reds show significantly stronger matchup potential against Colin Rea than the Brewers do against Ashcraft
Cincinnati starts Graham Ashcraft tonight.
Ashcraft is a perfect example of why ERA is a dangerous statistic.
His high ERA suggests that he has performed poorly this season.
However, his ERA is so high merely because he suffered some terrible starts in May and June.
His performances in those months are irrelevant to his current form.
What matters is, therefore, not his ERA but the fact that he has allowed a combined total of five earned runs in his last four starts while lasting at least six innings in each of them.
Ashcraft is doing a great job of minimizing hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground.
He has sustained his strong form even against a Giants team that scores the seventh-most runs per game on the road.
Ashcraft vs. Brewers Lineup
Ashcraft throws a cutter, slider, and sinker.
He matches up well against a Brewers lineup that ranks 21st with a .387 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Colin Rea starts for the Brewers tonight.
Rea does not share Ashcraft's strong form.
While Rea's last opponent did not punish him with runs, Rea continued in his last start to struggle to induce soft contact.
Two starts ago, he induced soft contact 7.1 percent of the time.
In his last start, he did not induce any soft contact.
Rea vs. Reds Batters
Rea faces a sizzling Reds team that has scored 28 runs during its ongoing five-game win streak.
During this streak, Cincinnati is slugging .577 against Rea's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Reds ML at +100 with BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Monday, July 24, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
- Jon Gray is a road warrior
- Brandon Bielak has been performing much worse than his ERA suggests
- Texas matches up well against Bielak whereas Houston matches up poorly against Gray
Who Starts for Texas?
Jon Gray starts for the Rangers today.
Texas is favored only slightly because it's playing on the road and oddsmakers assume that road teams are disadvantaged.
However, the most important Rangers' player today, its starting pitcher, thrives on the road.
Whereas Gray's ERA is 4.13 at home, it is 2.31 on the road.
Gray's Arsenal
Gray throws a good mixture of pitches: a fastball, slider, changeup, sweeper, and curveball.
His fastball is serviceable: it enjoys nice velocity and relatively strong horizontal movement.
When he needs to, he can rely to a unique extent on each of his four other pitches.
These four other pitches yield a BA of below .205.
His second-, third-, and fourth-most frequent pitches are his slider, changeup, and sweeper.
These pitches each yield a slugging rate below .280.
Gray vs. Astros Batters
Hitting-wise, Houston's outlook is negative today.
The Astros rank 20th with a .398 slugging rate against Gray's pitches from righties.
Whereas the Rangers hit well in Houston, the Astros do not.
Their slugging rate against Gray's pitches from righties drops to .382 at home.
Who Starts for Houston?
Brandon Bielak starts for Houston today.
His ERA looks nice, but it masks a 5.14 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reveals how poorly he's actually performing individually.
Bielak has benefitted from a fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and from an unsustainably high strand rate.
His outlook tonight is especially negative because Texas ranks fourth with a .453 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Rangers ML at -109 with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, July 24, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
- Jose Berrios enjoys strong form
- Michael Grove is unreliable especially after a rare strong outing
- Toronto hits Grove's pitches from righties well
Who Starts for Toronto?
Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays today.
Berrios enters tonight's game in strong form: he has allowed a combined total of three runs in his past three games.
His form is particularly impressive because he's sustained it against tough matchups.
On July 14, for example, he held Arizona to one run in 5.1 innings.
Berrios' current success in July consists with his career-long tendency to be at his best in the month of July.
More extensively, though, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his past eleven starts.
During this stretch, he's locked down the likes of Tampa Bay.
Berrios' Uniqueness
Berrios is a rare pitcher whose most frequent pitch is a slurve.
This pitch enjoys a lot of spin and horizontal movement.
Its strong velocity differential relative to his other pitches also creates a strong change of pace that keeps batters off-balance.
He also locates this pitch well, often burying it low in the strike zone whereby it complements especially his fastball which he likes to elevate.
Who Starts for the Dodgers?
Michael Grove starts for L.A. tonight.
While Grove is coming off a strong start, this constitutes in my mind a strike against him because he typically follows a good performance with a poor one.
Toronto's Lineup vs. Grove
Toronto's hitting outlook is solid tonight because it slugs .431 against Grove's pitches, the fastball, slider, curveball, and cutter, from righties.
Plus, Grove is clearly a fly ball pitcher. Toronto slugs .455 against fly ball pitchers compared to .378 against ground ball pitchers.
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML at +109 with BetOnline
