3 Best Bets July 17: Today's A Great Day For Pitchers
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, July 17, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
The Giants start Logan Webb tonight.
Webb is pitching particularly well at the moment, even for his standards.
He's allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last two starts, which totaled 15.2 innings.
He also accrued 21 strikeouts in those two starts.
Webb is hard to touch because he does a great job of getting batters to chase his pitches outside the strike zone.
Relative to the versions of his pitches thrown by other pitchers, his pitches enjoy a lot of movement.
As heat maps show, he likes to locate his pitches along the borders of the strike zone where he uses the movement of his pitches to tease batters into swinging at pitches that they are unlikely to hit.
Webb vs. Reds Batters
Today presents a great opportunity for Webb to prolong his great form.
The total for this game is high because Cincinnati is a hitters-friendly ballpark.
But this ballpark is actually friendly to Webb.
He enjoys a 0.00 ERA in two career starts against the Reds, one of which took place in this venue.
With his success against Cincinnati, he has victimized current Reds batters.
For example, Jonathan India and Nick Senzel are a combined 1-for-9 against him.
Who Starts for the Reds?
Brandon Williamson starts for Cincinnati today.
Williamson is a lefty, which is important because the Giants have struggled throughout the season against left-handed pitching.
More specifically, they rank 28th with a .374 slugging rate against Williamson's pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: First Half Under 5.5 at -105 with Bovada
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, July 17, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Miami?
Jesus Luzardo starts for the Marlins today.
Luzardo has been pitching excellently for a while now.
He has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his past five starts.
His current superb form is especially impressive because he's sustained it even against tough matchups.
For example, he just victimized a Philadelphia lineup that ranks eighth against his pitches from lefties, whereas the Cardinals rank 17th against his pitches from lefties.
Luzardo's Pitches
Luzardo relies especially on his fastball, slider, and changeup.
His slider is particularly relevant today because the Cardinals have struggled mightily with this pitch.
Opponents in general struggle to hit Luzardo's slider -- this pitch yields a .218 BA and .403 slugging rate.
He does a great job of burying it low in the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
His slider is also unique in that it's unusually tight.
But it's actually Luzardo's fastball that is most effective.
Opponents slug .376 against it, struggling in particular with its high velocity.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Miles Mikolas starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Mikolas is rounding into form: he's allowed a combined total of zero runs in his past two starts, which amounted to ten innings.
He's improving his already strong command while doing an amazing job of minimizing hard contact.
Mikolas vs. Marlins Batters
Mikolas' outlook is especially positive tonight because he matches up well against Marlins batters.
They rank 20th with a .403 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: First Half Under 5 at -130 with Bovada
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, July 17, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Sonny Gray starts for the Twins tonight.
Gray is coming off a bad-luck outing in which he did a good job inducing soft contact but was unfortunate to yield a .333 BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 3.12 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start shows how well he actually performed individually and attests to his current strong form.
Gray's Arsenal
Gray regularly does a good job preventing home runs and keeping the ball on the ground.
His pitches often have significant movement, especially his cutter.
Furthermore, he likes to bury his pitches where batters have trouble elevating them.
In addition to good movement and good location, his spin gives batters trouble.
For example, his fastball places in the 96th percentile in spin.
Spin makes it hard for batters to track the location of his pitches and to make clean contact.
Gray vs. Mariners Batters
Gray's good form should be expected to continue today in Seattle, where he loves pitching.
He enjoys a 1.40 career ERA in seven career starts here.
Plus, he matches up well against Seattle.
The Mariners slug .405 against his pitches from righties, despite often facing inferior versions of them from other pitchers.
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners tonight.
Gilbert enters today's game having allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last two starts, totaling 16 innings.
In addition to having good form, he matches up well against the Twins.
They rank 22nd with a .389 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: First Half under 4 at -110 with Bovada
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, July 17, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
- Logan Webb loves pitching against the Reds
- The total is high because the ballpark is generally considered very hitter-friendly, although the ballpark is friendly to Webb.
- The Giants have struggled against left-handed pitching throughout the year
The Giants start Logan Webb tonight.
Webb is pitching particularly well at the moment, even for his standards.
He's allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last two starts, which totaled 15.2 innings.
He also accrued 21 strikeouts in those two starts.
Webb is hard to touch because he does a great job of getting batters to chase his pitches outside the strike zone.
Relative to the versions of his pitches thrown by other pitchers, his pitches enjoy a lot of movement.
As heat maps show, he likes to locate his pitches along the borders of the strike zone where he uses the movement of his pitches to tease batters into swinging at pitches that they are unlikely to hit.
Webb vs. Reds Batters
Today presents a great opportunity for Webb to prolong his great form.
The total for this game is high because Cincinnati is a hitters-friendly ballpark.
But this ballpark is actually friendly to Webb.
He enjoys a 0.00 ERA in two career starts against the Reds, one of which took place in this venue.
With his success against Cincinnati, he has victimized current Reds batters.
For example, Jonathan India and Nick Senzel are a combined 1-for-9 against him.
Who Starts for the Reds?
Brandon Williamson starts for Cincinnati today.
Williamson is a lefty, which is important because the Giants have struggled throughout the season against left-handed pitching.
More specifically, they rank 28th with a .374 slugging rate against Williamson's pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: First Half Under 5.5 at -105 with Bovada
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, July 17, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
- Both pitchers have been performing well
- Jesus Luzardo has thrived even against tough matchups
- The Marlins hit Mikolas' pitches from righties poorly
Who Starts for Miami?
Jesus Luzardo starts for the Marlins today.
Luzardo has been pitching excellently for a while now.
He has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his past five starts.
His current superb form is especially impressive because he's sustained it even against tough matchups.
For example, he just victimized a Philadelphia lineup that ranks eighth against his pitches from lefties, whereas the Cardinals rank 17th against his pitches from lefties.
Luzardo's Pitches
Luzardo relies especially on his fastball, slider, and changeup.
His slider is particularly relevant today because the Cardinals have struggled mightily with this pitch.
Opponents in general struggle to hit Luzardo's slider -- this pitch yields a .218 BA and .403 slugging rate.
He does a great job of burying it low in the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
His slider is also unique in that it's unusually tight.
But it's actually Luzardo's fastball that is most effective.
Opponents slug .376 against it, struggling in particular with its high velocity.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Miles Mikolas starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Mikolas is rounding into form: he's allowed a combined total of zero runs in his past two starts, which amounted to ten innings.
He's improving his already strong command while doing an amazing job of minimizing hard contact.
Mikolas vs. Marlins Batters
Mikolas' outlook is especially positive tonight because he matches up well against Marlins batters.
They rank 20th with a .403 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: First Half Under 5 at -130 with Bovada
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, July 17, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
- Both pitchers enjoy strong form
- Sonny Gray loves pitching in Seattle
- Especially Logan Gilbert matches up well against his opposing lineup
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Sonny Gray starts for the Twins tonight.
Gray is coming off a bad-luck outing in which he did a good job inducing soft contact but was unfortunate to yield a .333 BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 3.12 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start shows how well he actually performed individually and attests to his current strong form.
Gray's Arsenal
Gray regularly does a good job preventing home runs and keeping the ball on the ground.
His pitches often have significant movement, especially his cutter.
Furthermore, he likes to bury his pitches where batters have trouble elevating them.
In addition to good movement and good location, his spin gives batters trouble.
For example, his fastball places in the 96th percentile in spin.
Spin makes it hard for batters to track the location of his pitches and to make clean contact.
Gray vs. Mariners Batters
Gray's good form should be expected to continue today in Seattle, where he loves pitching.
He enjoys a 1.40 career ERA in seven career starts here.
Plus, he matches up well against Seattle.
The Mariners slug .405 against his pitches from righties, despite often facing inferior versions of them from other pitchers.
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners tonight.
Gilbert enters today's game having allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last two starts, totaling 16 innings.
In addition to having good form, he matches up well against the Twins.
They rank 22nd with a .389 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: First Half under 4 at -110 with Bovada
