3 Best Bets July 3: Braves Continue on the Warpath
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, July 3, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami
Who Starts for Miami?
Braxton Garrett starts for the Marlins today.
Garrett has been consistently solid: he has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last four starts.
More extensively, he has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of his last nine starts.
During this extended stretch of strong pitching, he has sustained his success against teams that match up better against him better than the Cardinals do.
For example, he allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his starts against the Padres and Reds, who rank sixth and seventh, respectively, against his pitches from lefties.
Garrett's Arsenal
Garrett relies effectively on several different pitches.
Most prominently, his slider yields a .190 BA, and his cutter yields a .180 BA.
Both pitches benefit from frequently good location and unusual levels of movement.
The variety within his arsenal helps him be flexible with his pitch selection. Also, it makes him less predictable.
St. Louis' Lineup
The Cardinals are in a bad spot offensively because today's game is the first on their road trip.
In their five road stand openers, they scored zero, two, three, five, five, and one run respectively.
In one of the two five-run performances, three runs came with the single swing of a bat in a 10-inning game in very hitters-friendly Cincinnati.
In the other, the opposing starter pitcher suffers a 6.15 ERA.
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Miles Mikolas starts for St. Louis today.
He throws a sinker, fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup.
Miami ranks 21st in slugging .395 against these pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Under 8 at -104 with BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Monday, July 3, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Baltimore starts Tyler Wells tonight.
Wells is consistently excellent.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts.
This streak is particularly impressive because, during it, he has victimized tough lineups like that of Tampa Bay and that of Toronto.
Wells' Repertoire
Wells throws a fastball, cutter, changeup, slider, and curveball.
As evident in his start in Tampa Bay as well as his entire season, Wells masterfully uses his positive variety of pitches to induce soft contact.
Particularly the unique spin and distinct movement of his pitches make them hard for batters to make good contact against.
For example, his fastball places in the 89th percentile in velocity and differs clearly in horizontal and vertical movement from fastballs thrown by other pitches.
Wells vs. Yankee Batters
New York is 11-13 since superstar Aaron Judge's absence began, because its lineup is considerably weaker without him.
His absence has stark implications for the Yankees' matchup potential today.
Since his absence, they rank dead-last in slugging .342 against Wells' pitches from righties.
Judge is the only Yankee with more than two hits against Wells.
Current Yankee batters cannot scare him.
For example, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo are combined 2-for-20 facing Wells.
Who Starts for the Yankees?
New York starts Domingo German today.
German's last start was historic and exciting, but now he is in an emotional let-down spot.
Also critically, the O's match up well against him.
They rank 10th in slugging against his pitches -- the curveball, fastball, changeup, and sinker -- from righties.
Best Bet: Orioles ML at -110 with BetOnline
Atlanta Braves vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, July 3, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Bryce Elder starts for the Braves today.
Elder carries strong form into today's game: he has one, zero, and two runs in his last three starts, respectively.
While allowing two runs in six innings -- as he did in his last start -- isn't absolutely incredible, it is impressive that he can succeed while failing to be sharp.
His walk rate in that game -- he walked four batters -- was unusual for him.
On the season, he walks 2.63 batters per nine innings.
One should expect a sharper version of Elder today.
Elder's Pitching
Normally, he is uniquely precise.
Heat maps show his inclination and ability to locate his pitches consistently along the borders of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
The movement of his pitches, in tandem with their location, makes it especially hard for batters to determine whether they will land for a ball or a strike.
Elder vs. Guardian Batters
Elder's outlook today is particularly solid because Cleveland ranks 28th in slugging .377 against his pitches from righties.
While the Guardians' last two hitting outputs have been solid, they lack the quality in their lineup to be so consistent.
Hence, they are 0-4 after scoring over five runs in two straight games.
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Cleveland starts Gavin Williams today, who, after facing the Royals and Athletics, will get by far his toughest test.
The Braves rank second in slugging .473 against his pitches from righties.
They've won six in a row by multiple runs, displaying their elite team rhythm.
Best Bet: Braves RL at +104 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, July 3, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami
- Start after start, Braxton Garrett proves himself to be reliably solid
- St. Louis's lineup is in a bad spot
- Miami matches up poorly with Miles Mikolas
Who Starts for Miami?
Braxton Garrett starts for the Marlins today.
Garrett has been consistently solid: he has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last four starts.
More extensively, he has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of his last nine starts.
During this extended stretch of strong pitching, he has sustained his success against teams that match up better against him better than the Cardinals do.
For example, he allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his starts against the Padres and Reds, who rank sixth and seventh, respectively, against his pitches from lefties.
Garrett's Arsenal
Garrett relies effectively on several different pitches.
Most prominently, his slider yields a .190 BA, and his cutter yields a .180 BA.
Both pitches benefit from frequently good location and unusual levels of movement.
The variety within his arsenal helps him be flexible with his pitch selection. Also, it makes him less predictable.
St. Louis' Lineup
The Cardinals are in a bad spot offensively because today's game is the first on their road trip.
In their five road stand openers, they scored zero, two, three, five, five, and one run respectively.
In one of the two five-run performances, three runs came with the single swing of a bat in a 10-inning game in very hitters-friendly Cincinnati.
In the other, the opposing starter pitcher suffers a 6.15 ERA.
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Miles Mikolas starts for St. Louis today.
He throws a sinker, fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup.
Miami ranks 21st in slugging .395 against these pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Under 8 at -104 with BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Monday, July 3, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
- Tyler Wells has been consistently excellent even against strong competition
- The Yankees, especially without Aaron Judge, are helpless against his pitches
- Following his emotional elation after throwing a perfect game, Domingo German will come back down to Earth against a tough matchup
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Baltimore starts Tyler Wells tonight.
Wells is consistently excellent.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts.
This streak is particularly impressive because, during it, he has victimized tough lineups like that of Tampa Bay and that of Toronto.
Wells' Repertoire
Wells throws a fastball, cutter, changeup, slider, and curveball.
As evident in his start in Tampa Bay as well as his entire season, Wells masterfully uses his positive variety of pitches to induce soft contact.
Particularly the unique spin and distinct movement of his pitches make them hard for batters to make good contact against.
For example, his fastball places in the 89th percentile in velocity and differs clearly in horizontal and vertical movement from fastballs thrown by other pitches.
Wells vs. Yankee Batters
New York is 11-13 since superstar Aaron Judge's absence began, because its lineup is considerably weaker without him.
His absence has stark implications for the Yankees' matchup potential today.
Since his absence, they rank dead-last in slugging .342 against Wells' pitches from righties.
Judge is the only Yankee with more than two hits against Wells.
Current Yankee batters cannot scare him.
For example, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo are combined 2-for-20 facing Wells.
Who Starts for the Yankees?
New York starts Domingo German today.
German's last start was historic and exciting, but now he is in an emotional let-down spot.
Also critically, the O's match up well against him.
They rank 10th in slugging against his pitches -- the curveball, fastball, changeup, and sinker -- from righties.
Best Bet: Orioles ML at -110 with BetOnline
Atlanta Braves vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, July 3, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
- Bryce Elder is consistently solid and is slated to be sharper today
- Atlanta matches up excellently against Gavin Williams and will be his toughest test by far
- The Braves have won six in a row by multiple runs
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Bryce Elder starts for the Braves today.
Elder carries strong form into today's game: he has one, zero, and two runs in his last three starts, respectively.
While allowing two runs in six innings -- as he did in his last start -- isn't absolutely incredible, it is impressive that he can succeed while failing to be sharp.
His walk rate in that game -- he walked four batters -- was unusual for him.
On the season, he walks 2.63 batters per nine innings.
One should expect a sharper version of Elder today.
Elder's Pitching
Normally, he is uniquely precise.
Heat maps show his inclination and ability to locate his pitches consistently along the borders of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
The movement of his pitches, in tandem with their location, makes it especially hard for batters to determine whether they will land for a ball or a strike.
Elder vs. Guardian Batters
Elder's outlook today is particularly solid because Cleveland ranks 28th in slugging .377 against his pitches from righties.
While the Guardians' last two hitting outputs have been solid, they lack the quality in their lineup to be so consistent.
Hence, they are 0-4 after scoring over five runs in two straight games.
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Cleveland starts Gavin Williams today, who, after facing the Royals and Athletics, will get by far his toughest test.
The Braves rank second in slugging .473 against his pitches from righties.
They've won six in a row by multiple runs, displaying their elite team rhythm.
Best Bet: Braves RL at +104 with BetOnline
