3 Best Bets June 19: Red Sox and Diamondbacks Are Solid Road Dogs
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, June 19, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Jordan Lyles starts for the Royals.
It would be illogical to conclude from his 0-11 record that he is worth going against in every respect, because the "under" has a positive record in his starts.
The "under" is 3-1 when he starts against a division rival, a team that he is more familiar with, with the one exception coming in a rematch.
Lyles is strongest when facing a division rival for the first time, and he is also strongest in his most recent starts.
In terms of FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), he has enjoyed his three best starts in the past month.
He is doing a better job of avoiding hard contact, as he keeps especially his sweeper, curveball, and sinker along the borders of the strike zone where it is harder for batters to make good contact.
Who Starts for the Tigers?
Detroit starts Reese Olson today.
Olson's ERA is so high because he's made only three starts and one of them came against mighty Atlanta.
In his other two starts, he held the Phillies and White Sox to a combined total of three earned runs.
Matchups
I like the pitching in this game because both starters have excellent matchup opportunities.
Lyles throws a fastball, sweeper, curveball, sinker, changeup, and cutter.
Detroit ranks 29th in slugging .366 against Lyles' pitches from righties.
Olson throws a slider, fastball, sinker, changeup, and curveball.
Kansas City ranks 28th in slugging .367 against Olson's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Under 9 at -108 with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, June 19, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minnesota
Who Starts for Boston?
James Paxton starts for the Red Sox tonight.
It is ridiculous that the Red Sox are dogged -- and so heavily -- with him on the mound.
Paxton's 3.09 ERA says it all. He suffered one bad start, his third one of the season, at the Angels.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all of his other starts.
It's not like he's facing easy tests, either.
Among his more recent triumphs, he held a Reds team that ranks sixth in slugging against his pitches from lefties to one run.
Strikeouts
It is hard for batters even to touch Paxton's pitches -- he strikes out 12.38 batters per nine innings, which is more than he's done in any season in his career.
He does a great job of achieving whiffs with all of his pitches, his fastball, curveball, cutter, and changeup.
Generally, his pitches enjoy a lot of movement, and he ably navigates the borders of the strike zone, using the movement of his pitches to toy with the batter's perception of whether they'll land in or outside the strike zone.
He matches up well against a Twins team that owns strikes out at the highest rate.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Pablo Lopez starts for the Twins today.
Oddsmakers accord respect to home teams, but this should not be the case today.
Lopez tends to struggle at home where he yields a 5.88 ERA compared to a 2.72 ERA on the road.
He matches up poorly against a Red Sox lineup that ranks sixth against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML at +124 with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, June 19, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Corbin Burnes starts for Milwaukee today.
Burnes continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers, which partly explains why the Brewers are yielding negative units in his starts.
He has declined this season: in addition to conceding more runs, he strikes out fewer batters, walks more batters, and surrenders more home runs.
A lot of things are modestly wrong with Burnes, and these modest issues add up.
Sometimes, it's the regressed velocity, spin, and movement of his slider.
Other times, it's the diminished frequency with which his cutter avoids the heart of the plate.
His changeup is still effective, but he'll only throw it to guys batting from the opposite side of the plate.
Arizona's Lineup
Switch-hitters Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo actually have strong outlooks today.
Marte is 2-for-5 against Burnes, and Perdomo is 6-for-14 against the changeup from righties.
Overall, Arizona's outlook is solid because it ranks sixth in slugging .431 against Burnes' pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona today.
His 3.04 ERA looks especially impressive alongside his tendency to last six or more innings.
He also succeeds on the road, where Arizona is 6-0 in his starts.
Milwaukee's Lineup
The Brewers rank around average against Kelly's pitches from righties, although Kelly is well above average.
He has faced four teams that rank top-10 against his pitches from righties, and he held them all to two earned runs or fewer, and yet Milwaukee is a softer test.
In sum, we get the better pitcher and the better lineup at plus money.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML at +115 with BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, June 19, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
- Jordan Lyles is stronger in his recent starts and against division rivals
- Reese Olson's one bad start came against a tough Braves lineup
- Both lineups are weak and match up poorly against the opposing starting pitcher
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Jordan Lyles starts for the Royals.
It would be illogical to conclude from his 0-11 record that he is worth going against in every respect, because the "under" has a positive record in his starts.
The "under" is 3-1 when he starts against a division rival, a team that he is more familiar with, with the one exception coming in a rematch.
Lyles is strongest when facing a division rival for the first time, and he is also strongest in his most recent starts.
In terms of FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), he has enjoyed his three best starts in the past month.
He is doing a better job of avoiding hard contact, as he keeps especially his sweeper, curveball, and sinker along the borders of the strike zone where it is harder for batters to make good contact.
Who Starts for the Tigers?
Detroit starts Reese Olson today.
Olson's ERA is so high because he's made only three starts and one of them came against mighty Atlanta.
In his other two starts, he held the Phillies and White Sox to a combined total of three earned runs.
Matchups
I like the pitching in this game because both starters have excellent matchup opportunities.
Lyles throws a fastball, sweeper, curveball, sinker, changeup, and cutter.
Detroit ranks 29th in slugging .366 against Lyles' pitches from righties.
Olson throws a slider, fastball, sinker, changeup, and curveball.
Kansas City ranks 28th in slugging .367 against Olson's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Under 9 at -108 with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, June 19, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minnesota
- James Paxton is consistently solid and is also primed to strike out a lot of batters today
- Pablo Lopez has been disappointing at home
- Boston hits Lopez's pitches from righties very well
Who Starts for Boston?
James Paxton starts for the Red Sox tonight.
It is ridiculous that the Red Sox are dogged -- and so heavily -- with him on the mound.
Paxton's 3.09 ERA says it all. He suffered one bad start, his third one of the season, at the Angels.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all of his other starts.
It's not like he's facing easy tests, either.
Among his more recent triumphs, he held a Reds team that ranks sixth in slugging against his pitches from lefties to one run.
Strikeouts
It is hard for batters even to touch Paxton's pitches -- he strikes out 12.38 batters per nine innings, which is more than he's done in any season in his career.
He does a great job of achieving whiffs with all of his pitches, his fastball, curveball, cutter, and changeup.
Generally, his pitches enjoy a lot of movement, and he ably navigates the borders of the strike zone, using the movement of his pitches to toy with the batter's perception of whether they'll land in or outside the strike zone.
He matches up well against a Twins team that owns strikes out at the highest rate.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Pablo Lopez starts for the Twins today.
Oddsmakers accord respect to home teams, but this should not be the case today.
Lopez tends to struggle at home where he yields a 5.88 ERA compared to a 2.72 ERA on the road.
He matches up poorly against a Red Sox lineup that ranks sixth against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML at +124 with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, June 19, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
- Arizona boasts the stronger starting pitcher
- The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Merrill Kelly's road starts
- They match up better against Corbin Burnes than Milwaukee does against Kelly
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Corbin Burnes starts for Milwaukee today.
Burnes continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers, which partly explains why the Brewers are yielding negative units in his starts.
He has declined this season: in addition to conceding more runs, he strikes out fewer batters, walks more batters, and surrenders more home runs.
A lot of things are modestly wrong with Burnes, and these modest issues add up.
Sometimes, it's the regressed velocity, spin, and movement of his slider.
Other times, it's the diminished frequency with which his cutter avoids the heart of the plate.
His changeup is still effective, but he'll only throw it to guys batting from the opposite side of the plate.
Arizona's Lineup
Switch-hitters Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo actually have strong outlooks today.
Marte is 2-for-5 against Burnes, and Perdomo is 6-for-14 against the changeup from righties.
Overall, Arizona's outlook is solid because it ranks sixth in slugging .431 against Burnes' pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona today.
His 3.04 ERA looks especially impressive alongside his tendency to last six or more innings.
He also succeeds on the road, where Arizona is 6-0 in his starts.
Milwaukee's Lineup
The Brewers rank around average against Kelly's pitches from righties, although Kelly is well above average.
He has faced four teams that rank top-10 against his pitches from righties, and he held them all to two earned runs or fewer, and yet Milwaukee is a softer test.
In sum, we get the better pitcher and the better lineup at plus money.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML at +115 with BetOnline
