3 Best Bets June 12: Cardinals Are Great Underdogs Tonight
Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, June 12, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Who Starts for Colorado?
Connor Seabold starts for the Rockies tonight.
Seabold enters tonight's game in strong form: after limiting Arizona to one run in 5.1 innings, he most recently held San Francisco to two runs in six innings in Denver.
His effectivity overall derives largely from that of his fastball.
This pitch is important to him because it makes up 55.5 percent of his arsenal.
When he's in good form, he'll command the strike zone with his fastball in that he distributes it evenly along both sides of the plate.
He also likes to elevate this pitch, whereby it plays well off his slider, which is his second favorite pitch.
By elevating his fastball and burying his slider, he changes the batter's eye level.
Moreover, he uses both pitches to create a change of pace because an average 7.3 mph velocity differential exists between them.
Bad Spot for Both Lineups
Boston's lineup is in a bad spot because it's hitting poorly: it has scored no more than three runs in any of its last five games.
But Colorado's lineup is also in a bad spot because it is coming from super hitters-friendly Coors Field.
It is hard to transition from playing in Coors Field to a less hitters-friendly ballpark.
Who Starts for Boston?
James Paxton starts for Boston tonight.
Paxton's ERA is as high as it is because of one bad start.
He allowed two runs or fewer in his other four starts.
He'll likewise limit a Rockies' team that, in its road games, slugs .303 against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Under 10 at -118 with Heritage
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, June 12, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Logan Webb starts for the Giants tonight.
San Francisco is favored on the road because Webb has stronger numbers than his Cardinals' counterpart.
Though tempting, it would be a mistake to consider Webb's last start against St. Louis and to trust him accordingly.
That start took place back in April.
Since then, however, the Cardinals have improved massively against one of his favorite pitches to throw, the slider.
In April, the Cards slugged .304 against the slider from righties.
But in June, they are 19-for-59 with a .729 slugging rate against this pitch from righties.
Cardinal Batters vs. Webb
The thing is, even viewed apart from their initial struggles with the slider, they match up well against Webb.
Overall this season, they rank fifth in slugging .416 against Webb's pitches from righties -- Webb also features a sinker and changeup.
But since June, they rank first in slugging .577 against his pitches from righties.
Without having to fear his slider, the Cardinals will thrive.
San Francisco's Lineup
The Giants' lineup is in a bad spot.
Scoring-wise, San Francisco regularly falls flat after exploding for a double-digit output.
To be exact, San Francisco averages 2.8 runs in games following one in which they scored double-digits -- this average is even inflated because one of those games took place in high-altitude Coors Field.
Therefore, the Giants are in a let-down spot.
But their lineup is also in a tough spot because St. Louis starts a lefty -- Mike Liberatore -- and the Giants hit lefties poorly.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML at +116 with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, June 12, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Who Starts for the Reds?
Luke Weaver starts for Cincinnati tonight.
It might be tempting to go against Weaver because of what he did in his last start.
But he faced a vastly more difficult team in the Dodgers than the one he'll face tonight.
Let's not forget that he is capable of pitching well: he held Miami, for example, to one run in 5.1 innings, and he shut out the Cardinals over the course of 6.1 innings.
Plus, oddsmakers assigned this game one of the highest totals on today's card, so it is already implied that today's starting pitchers are rather bad.
Weaver vs. Royals' Batters
While Weaver has been bad this season, this fact works in our favor because his season-long struggles help inflate the total while tonight's game will go "under" because he will look great tonight.
To explain, he matches up superbly against the Royals with his mixture of pitches.
He throws a fastball, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
Kansas City ranks 29th in slugging .360 against Weaver's pitches from righties.
Matchup aside, the Royals are hitting terribly right now: they've scored a combined total of eight runs in their last five games.
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Zack Greinke starts for the Royals tonight.
Greinke is strong at home, where his ERA is 3.00 and where he yields a .360 slugging rate.
More historically, he's slated to thrive because he is 8-2 with a 2.38 ERA in his career against the Reds.
The Pick
Greinke doesn't like to pitch past five innings and the Royals' bullpen is awful, so let's stick to a first-half play.
Best Bet: First-Half under 5 at -115 with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, June 12, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Who Starts for Colorado?
Connor Seabold starts for the Rockies tonight.
Seabold enters tonight's game in strong form: after limiting Arizona to one run in 5.1 innings, he most recently held San Francisco to two runs in six innings in Denver.
His effectivity overall derives largely from that of his fastball.
This pitch is important to him because it makes up 55.5 percent of his arsenal.
When he's in good form, he'll command the strike zone with his fastball in that he distributes it evenly along both sides of the plate.
He also likes to elevate this pitch, whereby it plays well off his slider, which is his second favorite pitch.
By elevating his fastball and burying his slider, he changes the batter's eye level.
Moreover, he uses both pitches to create a change of pace because an average 7.3 mph velocity differential exists between them.
Bad Spot for Both Lineups
Boston's lineup is in a bad spot because it's hitting poorly: it has scored no more than three runs in any of its last five games.
But Colorado's lineup is also in a bad spot because it is coming from super hitters-friendly Coors Field.
It is hard to transition from playing in Coors Field to a less hitters-friendly ballpark.
Who Starts for Boston?
James Paxton starts for Boston tonight.
Paxton's ERA is as high as it is because of one bad start.
He allowed two runs or fewer in his other four starts.
He'll likewise limit a Rockies' team that, in its road games, slugs .303 against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Under 10 at -118 with Heritage
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, June 12, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Logan Webb starts for the Giants tonight.
San Francisco is favored on the road because Webb has stronger numbers than his Cardinals' counterpart.
Though tempting, it would be a mistake to consider Webb's last start against St. Louis and to trust him accordingly.
That start took place back in April.
Since then, however, the Cardinals have improved massively against one of his favorite pitches to throw, the slider.
In April, the Cards slugged .304 against the slider from righties.
But in June, they are 19-for-59 with a .729 slugging rate against this pitch from righties.
Cardinal Batters vs. Webb
The thing is, even viewed apart from their initial struggles with the slider, they match up well against Webb.
Overall this season, they rank fifth in slugging .416 against Webb's pitches from righties -- Webb also features a sinker and changeup.
But since June, they rank first in slugging .577 against his pitches from righties.
Without having to fear his slider, the Cardinals will thrive.
San Francisco's Lineup
The Giants' lineup is in a bad spot.
Scoring-wise, San Francisco regularly falls flat after exploding for a double-digit output.
To be exact, San Francisco averages 2.8 runs in games following one in which they scored double-digits -- this average is even inflated because one of those games took place in high-altitude Coors Field.
Therefore, the Giants are in a let-down spot.
But their lineup is also in a tough spot because St. Louis starts a lefty -- Mike Liberatore -- and the Giants hit lefties poorly.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML at +116 with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, June 12, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Who Starts for the Reds?
Luke Weaver starts for Cincinnati tonight.
It might be tempting to go against Weaver because of what he did in his last start.
But he faced a vastly more difficult team in the Dodgers than the one he'll face tonight.
Let's not forget that he is capable of pitching well: he held Miami, for example, to one run in 5.1 innings, and he shut out the Cardinals over the course of 6.1 innings.
Plus, oddsmakers assigned this game one of the highest totals on today's card, so it is already implied that today's starting pitchers are rather bad.
Weaver vs. Royals' Batters
While Weaver has been bad this season, this fact works in our favor because his season-long struggles help inflate the total while tonight's game will go "under" because he will look great tonight.
To explain, he matches up superbly against the Royals with his mixture of pitches.
He throws a fastball, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
Kansas City ranks 29th in slugging .360 against Weaver's pitches from righties.
Matchup aside, the Royals are hitting terribly right now: they've scored a combined total of eight runs in their last five games.
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Zack Greinke starts for the Royals tonight.
Greinke is strong at home, where his ERA is 3.00 and where he yields a .360 slugging rate.
More historically, he's slated to thrive because he is 8-2 with a 2.38 ERA in his career against the Reds.
The Pick
Greinke doesn't like to pitch past five innings and the Royals' bullpen is awful, so let's stick to a first-half play.
Best Bet: First-Half under 5 at -115 with BetOnline
