3 Player Props May 1: Let San Diego's Matt Carpenter Build Your Bankroll
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, May 1, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Who Starts for Toronto?
Jose Berrios starts for Toronto today.
Berrios' pitching arsenal is unusual in several respects.
He throws four pitches: a slurve, sinker, fastball, and change-up.
While his slurve is effective, his dedication to injecting variety into his arsenal hurts him, because he could be a more successful pitcher if he were to throw his slurve more often.
Despite the impressively low BA and slugging rate which this pitch allows, he only throws it 34.3 percent of the time.
The limitation of his slurve usage means that batters will see his weaker pitches more often.
One of his more problematic pitches is his sinker, which is his second-favorite pitch to throw.
In terms of velocity, spin rate, and movement, his pitch is not very different from the sinker that he threw last year and that yielded a .317 BA and .452 slugging rate.
Indeed, the .491 xSLG (expected slugging rate) of his sinker currently suggests that batters will slug even better against this pitch than they already are.
Boston's Alex Verdugo
My favorite Red Sox batter to hit Berrios well is Alex Verdugo.
Verdugo already has a strong track record against Berrios: in his career, Verdugo is 6-for-14 with a home run when Berrios is pitching to him.
This amounts to a stellar .429 BA and .643 slugging rate.
Verdugo is also heating up: he enters today's game having achieved two hits and one extra-base hit in each of his last two games.
For these reasons, let's bet on him to manage at least one extra-base hit or two singles today.
Best Bet: Alex Verdugo to record 2+ total bases at -110 with Bovada
Who Starts for Boston?
Corey Kluber starts for Boston.
The 37 year-old is clearly not what he used to be.
After yielding a poor 4.34 ERA last year as a Ray, his current ERA as a member of Boston is a miserable 6.75.
Kluber is striking out fewer batters than before while demonstrating glaring susceptibility to the long ball -- he is surrendering 2.63 home runs per nine innings.
While he did allow few runs in his last start, he benefitted from good fortunate in that he yielded a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite generating soft contact off only five percent of his pitches.
His 4.55 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how poorly he actually performed individually.
We can't expect Kluber to get so lucky again.
After all, his pitches are deeply vulnerable.
For example, he favors a curveball that, as heat maps show, he often places in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
My Favorite Blue Jays' Batter
Just as I was writing this pick, money poured in on slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
One reason why we should invest in him is the fact that he went hitless his last game, and he has gotten at least a hit in all five games that directly followed a hitless outing.
His outlook today looks particularly positive because of his superb track record against Kluber: he is 5-for-9 with two doubles and a homer when facing Kluber.
Therefore, let's expect him to achieve at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record 2+ total bases at -160 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, May 1, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Luke Weaver starts for the Reds today.
Weaver has made two starts this season, and already his performance thus far elicits significant concern.
In his first start, in pitchers-friendly Pittsburgh, he allowed two home runs.
Most recently, against the Rangers, he surrendered three home runs.
Overall, Weaver is surrendering 3.86 home runs per nine innings.
Weaver is vulnerable to the long ball for the same reason that he is vulnerable to giving up extra-base hits in general: opponents are regularly crushing his pitches.
Opposing batters have achieved a hard contact rate of over 50 percent in both of his starts thus far.
His favorite pitches already looked weak last year, but now they look even weaker.
For example, his favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws 45.3 percent of the time.
This pitch suffers more greatly in quality because it has experienced a measurable decline in its average velocity relative to last year.
Likewise, his changeup this year has declined by over one mph relative to its average velocity last season.
My Favorite Padres' Batter
I find it unbelievable that such attractive odds are attached to San Diego's Matt Carpenter.
His current odds do not do justice to his current form: Carpenter has accrued six extra-base hits alone in his last 15 at-bats.
In addition to exhibiting excellent slugging form, he is slugging .750 in 32 at-bats against Weaver's pitches from righties.
So, also for match-up-related reasons, we should invest in him to achieve at least one extra-base hit, although two singles would suffice.
Best Bet: Matt Carpenter to record 2+ total bases at +160 with Bovada
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, May 1, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
- Toronto starter Jose Berrios features his weakest pitches more often than he should.
- Boston's Alex Verdugo enters today in solid hitting form.
- Verdugo has an excellent track record against Berrios
Who Starts for Toronto?
Jose Berrios starts for Toronto today.
Berrios' pitching arsenal is unusual in several respects.
He throws four pitches: a slurve, sinker, fastball, and change-up.
While his slurve is effective, his dedication to injecting variety into his arsenal hurts him, because he could be a more successful pitcher if he were to throw his slurve more often.
Despite the impressively low BA and slugging rate which this pitch allows, he only throws it 34.3 percent of the time.
The limitation of his slurve usage means that batters will see his weaker pitches more often.
One of his more problematic pitches is his sinker, which is his second-favorite pitch to throw.
In terms of velocity, spin rate, and movement, his pitch is not very different from the sinker that he threw last year and that yielded a .317 BA and .452 slugging rate.
Indeed, the .491 xSLG (expected slugging rate) of his sinker currently suggests that batters will slug even better against this pitch than they already are.
Boston's Alex Verdugo
My favorite Red Sox batter to hit Berrios well is Alex Verdugo.
Verdugo already has a strong track record against Berrios: in his career, Verdugo is 6-for-14 with a home run when Berrios is pitching to him.
This amounts to a stellar .429 BA and .643 slugging rate.
Verdugo is also heating up: he enters today's game having achieved two hits and one extra-base hit in each of his last two games.
For these reasons, let's bet on him to manage at least one extra-base hit or two singles today.
Best Bet: Alex Verdugo to record 2+ total bases at -110 with Bovada
- Boston starter Corey Kluber clearly has his best days behind him.
- Toronto slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is due to get hits today.
- Vlad hits Kluber uniquely well.
Who Starts for Boston?
Corey Kluber starts for Boston.
The 37 year-old is clearly not what he used to be.
After yielding a poor 4.34 ERA last year as a Ray, his current ERA as a member of Boston is a miserable 6.75.
Kluber is striking out fewer batters than before while demonstrating glaring susceptibility to the long ball -- he is surrendering 2.63 home runs per nine innings.
While he did allow few runs in his last start, he benefitted from good fortunate in that he yielded a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite generating soft contact off only five percent of his pitches.
His 4.55 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how poorly he actually performed individually.
We can't expect Kluber to get so lucky again.
After all, his pitches are deeply vulnerable.
For example, he favors a curveball that, as heat maps show, he often places in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
My Favorite Blue Jays' Batter
Just as I was writing this pick, money poured in on slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
One reason why we should invest in him is the fact that he went hitless his last game, and he has gotten at least a hit in all five games that directly followed a hitless outing.
His outlook today looks particularly positive because of his superb track record against Kluber: he is 5-for-9 with two doubles and a homer when facing Kluber.
Therefore, let's expect him to achieve at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record 2+ total bases at -160 with Bovada
- Reds' starter Luke Weaver is unusually vulnerable to giving up extra-base hits.
- San Diego's Matt Carpenter enters today's game in strong slugging form.
- As measured by slugging rate, Carpenter hits Weaver's pitches very well.
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, May 1, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Luke Weaver starts for the Reds today.
Weaver has made two starts this season, and already his performance thus far elicits significant concern.
In his first start, in pitchers-friendly Pittsburgh, he allowed two home runs.
Most recently, against the Rangers, he surrendered three home runs.
Overall, Weaver is surrendering 3.86 home runs per nine innings.
Weaver is vulnerable to the long ball for the same reason that he is vulnerable to giving up extra-base hits in general: opponents are regularly crushing his pitches.
Opposing batters have achieved a hard contact rate of over 50 percent in both of his starts thus far.
His favorite pitches already looked weak last year, but now they look even weaker.
For example, his favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws 45.3 percent of the time.
This pitch suffers more greatly in quality because it has experienced a measurable decline in its average velocity relative to last year.
Likewise, his changeup this year has declined by over one mph relative to its average velocity last season.
My Favorite Padres' Batter
I find it unbelievable that such attractive odds are attached to San Diego's Matt Carpenter.
His current odds do not do justice to his current form: Carpenter has accrued six extra-base hits alone in his last 15 at-bats.
In addition to exhibiting excellent slugging form, he is slugging .750 in 32 at-bats against Weaver's pitches from righties.
So, also for match-up-related reasons, we should invest in him to achieve at least one extra-base hit, although two singles would suffice.
Best Bet: Matt Carpenter to record 2+ total bases at +160 with Bovada
