3 Player Props April 24: Cincinnati's TJ Friedl to Extend Hit Streak
Colorado Rockies vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Who's Starting for Colorado?
Colorado's pitching staff has been disastrous this year.
Today's Rockie starter, lefty Austin Gomber, presents no exception with his 0-4 record and 12.12 ERA.
He has been at his worst since the season opener.
In his last three starts, he allowed five earned runs against Washington, five at Seattle, and nine against Pittsburgh.
Opponents have been crushing his pitches especially in his last two starts.
In fact, he yielded zero soft contact in his most recent outing.
This has been, in sum, the worst season of his career.
Besides giving up more runs than ever before, he is striking out fewer batters and giving up home runs at a vastly higher rate.
The fact that he has allowed a home run in every start this season bodes well for opposing batters looking to improve upon their slugging rate.
Arguably Gomber's biggest problem is the lack of quality of his individual pitches.
His favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws 39.9 percent of the time.
However, this pitch ranks in the 12th percentile in velocity and in the 26th percentile in spin rate.
Batters are certainly going to have an easier time hitting easier pitches.
Cleveland's Josh Bell
My favorite Guardians' batter to take advantage of Gomber's vulnerability is Josh Bell, who has raised his slugging rate over .300 in the past three weeks.
He is already 3-for-7 in his career against Gomber, and this is the worst version of Gomber yet.
Bell benefits from killing lefties in general -- he is hitting .318 and slugging .636 against them.
For our prop bet, let's count on Bell to accrue at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Josh Bell to record 2+ total bases at +105 with Bovada
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Cal Quantrill starts for the Guardians today.
Quantrill might seem to be finding his groove, given how his last start went.
Most recently, he shut out Detroit over the course of six innings.
His prior start wasn't bad, either, Before shutting out Detroit, he limited Washington to three runs in six innings.
But performing well against either Washington or Detroit just isn't impressive.
Whereas the Nationals rank 26thin runs per game, the Tigers rank last in the category.
In order to find Quantrill impressive, we should see him pitch well against a strong lineup.
A significant problem with his pitches is their consistently poor location. He often leaves especially his favorite pitch, the sinker, in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Now, I want to go against him by choosing a Rockies' player to invest in with a player prop bet.
The Rockies' lineup is not good, but the benefit of investing in a player prop bet is that we don't need the entire Rockies' lineup to be good.
We need to find one player on Colorado who we think will perform well.
Favorite Rockies' Batter
Above all, I like Elias Diaz to do well today.
He slugs .667 in 15 at-bats against Quantrill's two favorite pitches, the sinker and cutter, from righties.
Diaz is also underpriced despite having his career-best year hitting-wise.
His current BA is .333, and he is slugging .500.
For these reasons, let's count on him to accrue at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Elias Diaz to record 2+ total bases at +140 with Bovada
Texas Rangers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Who Starts for Texas?
Nathan Eovaldi starts for Texas.
Despite doing well in his second consecutive try against Kansas City's lineup, Eovaldi has been having a rough season overall.
His ERA is the second-worst it's been in his career.
Perhaps most problematically, he is struggling to generate soft contact.
Whereas his soft contact rate in his career is 16.9 percent, it is 7.7 percent so far this season.
Eovaldi's struggles shouldn't be too surprising given the mediocrity of his stuff.
He favors his fastball most, throwing this pitch 35.6 percent of the time.
It ranks modestly in the 60thpercentile in velocity and in the 55thin spin.
Perhaps its frequently poor location is enabling batters to slug .586 against it.
A player prop bet that targets Eovaldi is worthwhile partly because batters will often get to see a pitch that is evidently rather hittable.
The only really effective pitch that he throws is his split finger, but batters only see it less than a quarter of the time.
A cutter and curveball also form the bulk of his arsenal, but his cutter yields a .333 BA and .467 slugging rate while his curveball yields a .444 BA and .444 slugging rate.
My Favorite Reds' Batter
Cincinnati's TJ Friedl is worth backing no matter who he faces.
He enters today's game on a seven-game hit streak.
Friedl does also benefit from matching up well against Eovaldi.
His slugging rate is .667 in 33 at-bats against Eovaldi's main pitches.
Thus, we should expect him to manage at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: TJ Friedl to record 2+ total bases at +115 with Bovada
Colorado Rockies vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Who's Starting for Colorado?
Colorado's pitching staff has been disastrous this year.
Today's Rockie starter, lefty Austin Gomber, presents no exception with his 0-4 record and 12.12 ERA.
He has been at his worst since the season opener.
In his last three starts, he allowed five earned runs against Washington, five at Seattle, and nine against Pittsburgh.
Opponents have been crushing his pitches especially in his last two starts.
In fact, he yielded zero soft contact in his most recent outing.
This has been, in sum, the worst season of his career.
Besides giving up more runs than ever before, he is striking out fewer batters and giving up home runs at a vastly higher rate.
The fact that he has allowed a home run in every start this season bodes well for opposing batters looking to improve upon their slugging rate.
Arguably Gomber's biggest problem is the lack of quality of his individual pitches.
His favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws 39.9 percent of the time.
However, this pitch ranks in the 12th percentile in velocity and in the 26th percentile in spin rate.
Batters are certainly going to have an easier time hitting easier pitches.
Cleveland's Josh Bell
My favorite Guardians' batter to take advantage of Gomber's vulnerability is Josh Bell, who has raised his slugging rate over .300 in the past three weeks.
He is already 3-for-7 in his career against Gomber, and this is the worst version of Gomber yet.
Bell benefits from killing lefties in general -- he is hitting .318 and slugging .636 against them.
For our prop bet, let's count on Bell to accrue at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Josh Bell to record 2+ total bases at +105 with Bovada
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Cal Quantrill starts for the Guardians today.
Quantrill might seem to be finding his groove, given how his last start went.
Most recently, he shut out Detroit over the course of six innings.
His prior start wasn't bad, either, Before shutting out Detroit, he limited Washington to three runs in six innings.
But performing well against either Washington or Detroit just isn't impressive.
Whereas the Nationals rank 26thin runs per game, the Tigers rank last in the category.
In order to find Quantrill impressive, we should see him pitch well against a strong lineup.
A significant problem with his pitches is their consistently poor location. He often leaves especially his favorite pitch, the sinker, in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Now, I want to go against him by choosing a Rockies' player to invest in with a player prop bet.
The Rockies' lineup is not good, but the benefit of investing in a player prop bet is that we don't need the entire Rockies' lineup to be good.
We need to find one player on Colorado who we think will perform well.
Favorite Rockies' Batter
Above all, I like Elias Diaz to do well today.
He slugs .667 in 15 at-bats against Quantrill's two favorite pitches, the sinker and cutter, from righties.
Diaz is also underpriced despite having his career-best year hitting-wise.
His current BA is .333, and he is slugging .500.
For these reasons, let's count on him to accrue at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Elias Diaz to record 2+ total bases at +140 with Bovada
Texas Rangers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Who Starts for Texas?
Nathan Eovaldi starts for Texas.
Despite doing well in his second consecutive try against Kansas City's lineup, Eovaldi has been having a rough season overall.
His ERA is the second-worst it's been in his career.
Perhaps most problematically, he is struggling to generate soft contact.
Whereas his soft contact rate in his career is 16.9 percent, it is 7.7 percent so far this season.
Eovaldi's struggles shouldn't be too surprising given the mediocrity of his stuff.
He favors his fastball most, throwing this pitch 35.6 percent of the time.
It ranks modestly in the 60thpercentile in velocity and in the 55thin spin.
Perhaps its frequently poor location is enabling batters to slug .586 against it.
A player prop bet that targets Eovaldi is worthwhile partly because batters will often get to see a pitch that is evidently rather hittable.
The only really effective pitch that he throws is his split finger, but batters only see it less than a quarter of the time.
A cutter and curveball also form the bulk of his arsenal, but his cutter yields a .333 BA and .467 slugging rate while his curveball yields a .444 BA and .444 slugging rate.
My Favorite Reds' Batter
Cincinnati's TJ Friedl is worth backing no matter who he faces.
He enters today's game on a seven-game hit streak.
Friedl does also benefit from matching up well against Eovaldi.
His slugging rate is .667 in 33 at-bats against Eovaldi's main pitches.
Thus, we should expect him to manage at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: TJ Friedl to record 2+ total bases at +115 with Bovada
