3 Player Props April 17: Expect Just Another Great Day from Nathaniel Lowe
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, April 17, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Jordan Lyles starts for Kansas City.
His current 5.19 ERA is consistent with his career-long ERA.
Evidently, he is a pitcher who batters tend to perform well against.
This tendency is especially evident in his most recent starts.
He allowed five runs in 5.2 innings on April 6 before, most recently, allowing four runs in 6.1 innings.
This most recent start took place against these very same Rangers who will be extra prepared for this game because they get to see him again so soon.
Lyles' Vulnerabilities
Two things make Lyles particularly vulnerable.
One, his pitches themselves aren't effective.
His favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws just over 33 percent of the time.
This pitch ranks in the 13th percentile in velocity and in the 29th percentile in spin.
As a result, batters have little difficulty keeping up with it or tracking its movement.
Two, Lyles often struggles to locate his pitches well.
Heat maps show that he frequently places his anyhow lower-quality pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters more easily make good contact with them.
My Favorite Rangers' Batter
We should invest in a Rangers' batter to take advantage of Lyles' vulnerability.
My favorite one is Nathaniel Lowe for two reasons.
One, Lowe matches up well against Lyles given the pitches that he throws.
Lowe slugs .679 in 28 at-bats against Lyles' favorite pitches.
Two, Lowe is a consistent force, having earned at least one hit in 11 straight games.
Therefore, let's invest in him to record 2+ total bases, which means that we need him to get at least two singles, or a double, etc.
Best Bet: Nathaniel Lowe to record 2+ total bases at -115 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, April 17, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Arizona?
Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona today.
He might seem unreliable in view of his attractive ERA.
But ERA is just a surface-level statistic that masks other factors.
As such, it lacks predictive validity because it does not do a good job of indicating a pitcher's quality.
Specifically, Kelly's ERA masks a 4.76 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which shows that he is performing poorly.
Kelly has benefitted from allowing a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that is fortunately low in view of the high rate at which he is allowing hard contact.
Opponents are regularly crushing his pitches, and it is only a matter of time until those instances of hard contact translate into hits with higher frequency.
Plus, Kelly's command of the strike zone has been poor.
He is walking 7.04 batters per nine innings.
This walk rate is a consequence of the consistency of his poor command, as he has walked four batters in each of his three starts so far.
Right now, he is often starting batters out with a strike before shying away from the strike zone, which ultimately leads to walks.
But I imagine that Kelly will want to fix this walk tendency by throwing more strikes.
Look Out for Cardinal Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado is primed to take advantage of Kelly's vulnerability.
He is 4-for-10 with a double and a homer in his career against Kelly.
Plus, he is already enjoying solid form, as evident in his .333 BA and .470 slugging rate.
Therefore, let's expect him to record 2+ total bases via multiple singles, or at least one double, etc.
Best Bet: Nolan Arenado to record 2+ total bases at +100 with Bovada
Chicago Cubs vs. Oakland Athletics
Monday, April 17, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Who Starts for Oakland?
Kyle Muller starts for Oakland today.
His ERA certainly looks unattractive, but Muller defenders might point to the fact that he has really only had one bad start.
Most recently, he surrendered six earned runs in four innings against the Orioles.
But there is something telling about that negative performance that creates promise for certain Cub batters.
To explain, Muller is a lefty.
He is your standard left-handed pitcher who fares better against left-handed batters while struggling more extensively against right-handed batters.
To be exact, lefties are hitting .222 with him on the mound whereas righties are hitting a vastly more impressive .271 against him.
Most pitchers rely on off-speed stuff as a weapon against opposite-handed batters.
Two classic weapons that lefties like to rely on against right-handed batters are the curveball and changeup.
While Muller throws these two pitches, they are his least frequent pitches.
Overall and even against righties, he features his fastball and slider.
Especially his fastball, which is his favorite pitch, is most vulnerable, as evident in the .321 BA that it yields.
Choosing A Cubs' Righty
We'll want to invest in a Cubs' right-handed batter who specializes in hitting left-handed pitching.
The righty vs. lefty matchup yields great value in a rather underrated Cubs' batter, Patrick Wisdom.
Wisdom has a lot of power in his swing, which makes him tempting for extra-base props.
He is especially reliable against lefties -- he slugs 1.077 against them.
Investing in him to record 2+ total bases via two or more singles, a double, a triple, or a home run, is especially exciting because he is listed at plus odds.
Best Bet: Patrick Wisdom to record 2+ total bases at +130 with Bovada
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, April 17, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Jordan Lyles starts for Kansas City.
His current 5.19 ERA is consistent with his career-long ERA.
Evidently, he is a pitcher who batters tend to perform well against.
This tendency is especially evident in his most recent starts.
He allowed five runs in 5.2 innings on April 6 before, most recently, allowing four runs in 6.1 innings.
This most recent start took place against these very same Rangers who will be extra prepared for this game because they get to see him again so soon.
Lyles' Vulnerabilities
Two things make Lyles particularly vulnerable.
One, his pitches themselves aren't effective.
His favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws just over 33 percent of the time.
This pitch ranks in the 13th percentile in velocity and in the 29th percentile in spin.
As a result, batters have little difficulty keeping up with it or tracking its movement.
Two, Lyles often struggles to locate his pitches well.
Heat maps show that he frequently places his anyhow lower-quality pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters more easily make good contact with them.
My Favorite Rangers' Batter
We should invest in a Rangers' batter to take advantage of Lyles' vulnerability.
My favorite one is Nathaniel Lowe for two reasons.
One, Lowe matches up well against Lyles given the pitches that he throws.
Lowe slugs .679 in 28 at-bats against Lyles' favorite pitches.
Two, Lowe is a consistent force, having earned at least one hit in 11 straight games.
Therefore, let's invest in him to record 2+ total bases, which means that we need him to get at least two singles, or a double, etc.
Best Bet: Nathaniel Lowe to record 2+ total bases at -115 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, April 17, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Arizona?
Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona today.
He might seem unreliable in view of his attractive ERA.
But ERA is just a surface-level statistic that masks other factors.
As such, it lacks predictive validity because it does not do a good job of indicating a pitcher's quality.
Specifically, Kelly's ERA masks a 4.76 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which shows that he is performing poorly.
Kelly has benefitted from allowing a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that is fortunately low in view of the high rate at which he is allowing hard contact.
Opponents are regularly crushing his pitches, and it is only a matter of time until those instances of hard contact translate into hits with higher frequency.
Plus, Kelly's command of the strike zone has been poor.
He is walking 7.04 batters per nine innings.
This walk rate is a consequence of the consistency of his poor command, as he has walked four batters in each of his three starts so far.
Right now, he is often starting batters out with a strike before shying away from the strike zone, which ultimately leads to walks.
But I imagine that Kelly will want to fix this walk tendency by throwing more strikes.
Look Out for Cardinal Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado is primed to take advantage of Kelly's vulnerability.
He is 4-for-10 with a double and a homer in his career against Kelly.
Plus, he is already enjoying solid form, as evident in his .333 BA and .470 slugging rate.
Therefore, let's expect him to record 2+ total bases via multiple singles, or at least one double, etc.
Best Bet: Nolan Arenado to record 2+ total bases at +100 with Bovada
Chicago Cubs vs. Oakland Athletics
Monday, April 17, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Who Starts for Oakland?
Kyle Muller starts for Oakland today.
His ERA certainly looks unattractive, but Muller defenders might point to the fact that he has really only had one bad start.
Most recently, he surrendered six earned runs in four innings against the Orioles.
But there is something telling about that negative performance that creates promise for certain Cub batters.
To explain, Muller is a lefty.
He is your standard left-handed pitcher who fares better against left-handed batters while struggling more extensively against right-handed batters.
To be exact, lefties are hitting .222 with him on the mound whereas righties are hitting a vastly more impressive .271 against him.
Most pitchers rely on off-speed stuff as a weapon against opposite-handed batters.
Two classic weapons that lefties like to rely on against right-handed batters are the curveball and changeup.
While Muller throws these two pitches, they are his least frequent pitches.
Overall and even against righties, he features his fastball and slider.
Especially his fastball, which is his favorite pitch, is most vulnerable, as evident in the .321 BA that it yields.
Choosing A Cubs' Righty
We'll want to invest in a Cubs' right-handed batter who specializes in hitting left-handed pitching.
The righty vs. lefty matchup yields great value in a rather underrated Cubs' batter, Patrick Wisdom.
Wisdom has a lot of power in his swing, which makes him tempting for extra-base props.
He is especially reliable against lefties -- he slugs 1.077 against them.
Investing in him to record 2+ total bases via two or more singles, a double, a triple, or a home run, is especially exciting because he is listed at plus odds.
Best Bet: Patrick Wisdom to record 2+ total bases at +130 with Bovada
