MLB Best Player Props April 3: Nolan Arenado Ready to Slug Today
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Concerned About Drew Smyly?
Should we be concerned about Chicago starter Drew Smyly because he suffered a poor Spring Training?
His 6.06 Spring Training ERA is indeed poor, but we can't be surprised when players fail to perform well in situations where success does not matter.
Instead of trying to win games that don't count, players use Spring Training to work on things so that they perform better in the regular season.
Last year, Smyly's Spring Training ERA was 6.14, and yet he was sufficiently prepared to achieve a 3.47 regular season ERA.
Smyly's Outlook Today
We should have confidence in Smyly today because he is facing the Reds.
His track record against them is unequivocally positive.
In his career, he is 5-0 with a 2.92 ERA when facing the Reds.
Smyly's success against them has extended into their notoriously hitters-friendly ballpark.
He is 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA in his career in Cincinnati.
Smyly vs. Red Batters
Smyly's track record against individual Red batters is likewise solid.
Of the six that have faced him at least seven times, five have more strikeouts than hits.
Betting Approach
Multiple wager opportunities at plus money are available.
The prop bet I am interested in is the over/under hits.
For this bet to hit, we must decide whether a given player will achieve more or fewer hits than the posted over/under.
I want to hit the "under" hits for Jonathan India, Wil Myers, and Tyler Stephenson.
India is batting .222 in nine career at-bats against Smyly while Myers and Stephenson are both 1-for-7 lifetime against him.
The idea is that it is exceptionally likely that at least two of these prop bets will hit, which would entail a great profit given the attractive odds.
Best Bet: Jonathan India under 0.5 hits at +158 with Bovada; Tyler Stephenson under 0.5 hits at +169 with Bovada; Wil Myers under 0.5 hits at +149 with Bovada
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Taijuan Walker's Outlook
Taijuan Walker starts for Philadelphia today.
Now is the time of year to back him because, as measured by FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), March/April is when he is at his best.
Impressively, his career FIP in March/April is 3.03 -- conversely, it is over 3.50 in every other month.
Walker's Strikeout Totals
Walker had a promising strikeout-to-inning ratio during Spring Training -- he achieved 12 Ks in 9.1 innings.
But what I like most about his strikeout total potential is his dedication to increasing his workload this season.
His promise to improve his innings output will entail that he has more opportunities to strike out batters because he will face more of them.
Yankee Batters
New York batters possess an all-or-nothing mentality in that, more than other teams, they tend to hit a home run or strike out.
Their vulnerability to striking out is evident in the fact that they're suffering the third-worst strikeout rate this season.
Betting Approach
Let's invest in a high strikeout total from Walker by betting the "over" on his strikeout prop.
For this bet to hit, he'll need to achieve five or more strikeouts today.
Best Bet: Taijuan Walker over 4.5 strikeouts at -113 with Bovada
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Charlie Morton's Outlook
Charlie Morton starts for the Braves today.
Morton's outlook is negative in view of his terrible history in St. Louis.
At Busch Stadium, he is 1-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 10 career starts.
Nolan Arenado's Outlook
I like Nolan Arenado the most to take advantage of Morton's vulnerability today.
Arenado boasts a .579 slugging rate with three doubles and a home run in 19 at-bats facing Morton.
Betting Approach
Let's expect a low strikeout total from Morton and a high base total from Arenado.
The latter prop bet refers to the number of bases that Arenado runs.
A double, for example, is two bases. A triple is three bases, and so forth.
Best Bet: Charlie Morton under 5.5 strikeouts at -103 with Bovada & Nolan Arenado over 1.5 bases at +112 with Bovada
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Concerned About Drew Smyly?
Should we be concerned about Chicago starter Drew Smyly because he suffered a poor Spring Training?
His 6.06 Spring Training ERA is indeed poor, but we can't be surprised when players fail to perform well in situations where success does not matter.
Instead of trying to win games that don't count, players use Spring Training to work on things so that they perform better in the regular season.
Last year, Smyly's Spring Training ERA was 6.14, and yet he was sufficiently prepared to achieve a 3.47 regular season ERA.
Smyly's Outlook Today
We should have confidence in Smyly today because he is facing the Reds.
His track record against them is unequivocally positive.
In his career, he is 5-0 with a 2.92 ERA when facing the Reds.
Smyly's success against them has extended into their notoriously hitters-friendly ballpark.
He is 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA in his career in Cincinnati.
Smyly vs. Red Batters
Smyly's track record against individual Red batters is likewise solid.
Of the six that have faced him at least seven times, five have more strikeouts than hits.
Betting Approach
Multiple wager opportunities at plus money are available.
The prop bet I am interested in is the over/under hits.
For this bet to hit, we must decide whether a given player will achieve more or fewer hits than the posted over/under.
I want to hit the "under" hits for Jonathan India, Wil Myers, and Tyler Stephenson.
India is batting .222 in nine career at-bats against Smyly while Myers and Stephenson are both 1-for-7 lifetime against him.
The idea is that it is exceptionally likely that at least two of these prop bets will hit, which would entail a great profit given the attractive odds.
Best Bet: Jonathan India under 0.5 hits at +158 with Bovada; Tyler Stephenson under 0.5 hits at +169 with Bovada; Wil Myers under 0.5 hits at +149 with Bovada
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Taijuan Walker's Outlook
Taijuan Walker starts for Philadelphia today.
Now is the time of year to back him because, as measured by FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), March/April is when he is at his best.
Impressively, his career FIP in March/April is 3.03 -- conversely, it is over 3.50 in every other month.
Walker's Strikeout Totals
Walker had a promising strikeout-to-inning ratio during Spring Training -- he achieved 12 Ks in 9.1 innings.
But what I like most about his strikeout total potential is his dedication to increasing his workload this season.
His promise to improve his innings output will entail that he has more opportunities to strike out batters because he will face more of them.
Yankee Batters
New York batters possess an all-or-nothing mentality in that, more than other teams, they tend to hit a home run or strike out.
Their vulnerability to striking out is evident in the fact that they're suffering the third-worst strikeout rate this season.
Betting Approach
Let's invest in a high strikeout total from Walker by betting the "over" on his strikeout prop.
For this bet to hit, he'll need to achieve five or more strikeouts today.
Best Bet: Taijuan Walker over 4.5 strikeouts at -113 with Bovada
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Charlie Morton's Outlook
Charlie Morton starts for the Braves today.
Morton's outlook is negative in view of his terrible history in St. Louis.
At Busch Stadium, he is 1-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 10 career starts.
Nolan Arenado's Outlook
I like Nolan Arenado the most to take advantage of Morton's vulnerability today.
Arenado boasts a .579 slugging rate with three doubles and a home run in 19 at-bats facing Morton.
Betting Approach
Let's expect a low strikeout total from Morton and a high base total from Arenado.
The latter prop bet refers to the number of bases that Arenado runs.
A double, for example, is two bases. A triple is three bases, and so forth.
Best Bet: Charlie Morton under 5.5 strikeouts at -103 with Bovada & Nolan Arenado over 1.5 bases at +112 with Bovada
