3 Player Props May 8: Texas to Cause Logan Gilbert Problems Today
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, May 8, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for Miami?
Braxton Garrett starts for the Marlins today.
Oddsmakers have Garrett's strikeout total posted at 3.5 for today's game.
3.5 might seem like a low number.
This might be a low total if he were regularly lasting six or seven innings.
But Garrett has failed to complete five innings in four of his six starts.
If he doesn't last many innings, then he's going to get fewer chances to strike out batters.
He doesn't remain long in games, because opposing batters are hitting him well.
His 5.81 ERA is telling.
Moreover, opposing batters are accruing 7.4 barrels per pitch attempt -- this figure is up from 4.8 last year.
This stat means that opponents are meeting his pitches with the barrel of their bat more often.
In a similar vein, according to Statcast, opposing batters achieve hard contact against his pitches 48.4 percent of the time.
It's easy to see from heat maps and his individual pitch data why these numbers are the way they are.
His pitches suffer from poor location, low velocity, and low spin.
Compared to last year, his velo and spin have both declined.
So, opposing batters have no problems catching up with and tracking the location of his pitches.
As a result, he has failed to exceed three strikeouts in four of his six starts.
Arizona's Lineup
Arizona benefits from matching up well against him. The Diamondbacks slug .431 against his pitches, of which Garrett throws inferior versions.
Plus, Arizona is the third-hardest team to strike out and is hitting the ball well lately.
Best Bet: Braxton Garrett under 3.5 strikeouts at -110 with Bovada
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, May 8, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Who Starts for Texas?
Jon Gray starts for Texas today.
His 4.40 ERA is actually flattering.
This surface-level stat masks his 6.22 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which underscores just how poorly he is performing on an individual level.
He has struggled especially in his recent outings: he allowed three earned runs against the A's and Reds before, most recently, surrendering four to Arizona.
His tendency to allow home runs further illustrates the success that opposing batters are generally having against him.
One major culprit of Gray's problems is his fastball.
Opponents are hitting .365 and slugging .635 against this pitch.
It suffers from a very low spin rate and frequent placement in the middle of the strike zone.
Batters have no problem tracking its location or making good contact with it.
The thing is, Gray's fastball is his favorite pitch to throw.
One can't expect him to ditch his fastball, since he is so used to throwing it -- he throws it over 47 percent of the time.
So, opposing batters will keep seeing plenty of fastballs and other pitches from Gray that they can hit.
My Favorite Mariners' Batter
I especially like Eugenio Suarez for Seattle to take advantage of Gray's vulnerabilities.
Suarez already has a strong track record against Gray.
He is 6-for-19 with three home runs in his career with Gray on the mound.
This amounts to a .316 BA and .789 slugging rate.
Given this track record and Gray's form, we can expect him to achieve at least an extra-base hit today if not two singles.
Best Bet: Eugenio Suarez to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners today.
Gilbert's posted strikeout total is 6.5 strikeouts.
This feels like an ambitious total for me.
Such a high total means that two things should happen: one, Gilbert should last a solid number of innings; two, he should, obviously, strike out Rangers' batters at a high rate.
To exceed 6.5 strikeouts, there's a good chance that he'll need to last six innings, which means that he'll probably have to have a good outing.
So, we should ask if he matches up well against Texas.
His pitching arsenal contains four pitches: a fastball, slider, curveball, and split finger.
He features all of these pitches regularly, between 11 and 47 percent of the time.
Texas is primed to be another one of the teams that Gilbert fails to complete six innings against, because it matches up well against him, ranking fifth with a .446 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
In lasting fewer innings because the opposing batters hit him well, Gilbert will receive fewer opportunities to exceed six strikeouts.
Seattle will want to rely on its bullpen sooner rather than later.
A Comparative Look
Gilbert exceeded six strikeouts in three different starts today.
Those three starts came against lineups that match up poorly against him or that strike out a lot -- the Cubs and Guardians rank bottom-seven against his pitches while the Brewers strike out with the seventh-highest frequency.
Because neither criterion applies to Texas -- the Rangers match up well against Gilbert and are not easy to strike out -- Gilbert must be expected to fail to reach seven strikeouts today.
Best Bet: Logan Gilbert under 6.5 strikeouts at -130 with Bovada
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, May 8, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
- Braxton Garrett is struggling to last long in games because he is getting hit hard
- Arizona's lineup matches up well against him
- The Diamondbacks show good form and are already tough to strike out in general
Who Starts for Miami?
Braxton Garrett starts for the Marlins today.
Oddsmakers have Garrett's strikeout total posted at 3.5 for today's game.
3.5 might seem like a low number.
This might be a low total if he were regularly lasting six or seven innings.
But Garrett has failed to complete five innings in four of his six starts.
If he doesn't last many innings, then he's going to get fewer chances to strike out batters.
He doesn't remain long in games, because opposing batters are hitting him well.
His 5.81 ERA is telling.
Moreover, opposing batters are accruing 7.4 barrels per pitch attempt -- this figure is up from 4.8 last year.
This stat means that opponents are meeting his pitches with the barrel of their bat more often.
In a similar vein, according to Statcast, opposing batters achieve hard contact against his pitches 48.4 percent of the time.
It's easy to see from heat maps and his individual pitch data why these numbers are the way they are.
His pitches suffer from poor location, low velocity, and low spin.
Compared to last year, his velo and spin have both declined.
So, opposing batters have no problems catching up with and tracking the location of his pitches.
As a result, he has failed to exceed three strikeouts in four of his six starts.
Arizona's Lineup
Arizona benefits from matching up well against him. The Diamondbacks slug .431 against his pitches, of which Garrett throws inferior versions.
Plus, Arizona is the third-hardest team to strike out and is hitting the ball well lately.
Best Bet: Braxton Garrett under 3.5 strikeouts at -110 with Bovada
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, May 8, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
- Jon Gray is performing extra poorly this season
- Among other problems, Gray lacks a favorite pitch to rely on
- Eugenio Suarez already has an excellent track record against Gray
Who Starts for Texas?
Jon Gray starts for Texas today.
His 4.40 ERA is actually flattering.
This surface-level stat masks his 6.22 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which underscores just how poorly he is performing on an individual level.
He has struggled especially in his recent outings: he allowed three earned runs against the A's and Reds before, most recently, surrendering four to Arizona.
His tendency to allow home runs further illustrates the success that opposing batters are generally having against him.
One major culprit of Gray's problems is his fastball.
Opponents are hitting .365 and slugging .635 against this pitch.
It suffers from a very low spin rate and frequent placement in the middle of the strike zone.
Batters have no problem tracking its location or making good contact with it.
The thing is, Gray's fastball is his favorite pitch to throw.
One can't expect him to ditch his fastball, since he is so used to throwing it -- he throws it over 47 percent of the time.
So, opposing batters will keep seeing plenty of fastballs and other pitches from Gray that they can hit.
My Favorite Mariners' Batter
I especially like Eugenio Suarez for Seattle to take advantage of Gray's vulnerabilities.
Suarez already has a strong track record against Gray.
He is 6-for-19 with three home runs in his career with Gray on the mound.
This amounts to a .316 BA and .789 slugging rate.
Given this track record and Gray's form, we can expect him to achieve at least an extra-base hit today if not two singles.
Best Bet: Eugenio Suarez to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
- Logan Gilbert has four pitches in his arsenal: a fastball, slider, curveball, and split finger.
- Gilbert has only struck out more than six batters in starts against teams that he matches up well against or teams that strike out a lot
- Texas loves facing Gilbert's pitches and strikes out rarely
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners today.
Gilbert's posted strikeout total is 6.5 strikeouts.
This feels like an ambitious total for me.
Such a high total means that two things should happen: one, Gilbert should last a solid number of innings; two, he should, obviously, strike out Rangers' batters at a high rate.
To exceed 6.5 strikeouts, there's a good chance that he'll need to last six innings, which means that he'll probably have to have a good outing.
So, we should ask if he matches up well against Texas.
His pitching arsenal contains four pitches: a fastball, slider, curveball, and split finger.
He features all of these pitches regularly, between 11 and 47 percent of the time.
Texas is primed to be another one of the teams that Gilbert fails to complete six innings against, because it matches up well against him, ranking fifth with a .446 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
In lasting fewer innings because the opposing batters hit him well, Gilbert will receive fewer opportunities to exceed six strikeouts.
Seattle will want to rely on its bullpen sooner rather than later.
A Comparative Look
Gilbert exceeded six strikeouts in three different starts today.
Those three starts came against lineups that match up poorly against him or that strike out a lot -- the Cubs and Guardians rank bottom-seven against his pitches while the Brewers strike out with the seventh-highest frequency.
Because neither criterion applies to Texas -- the Rangers match up well against Gilbert and are not easy to strike out -- Gilbert must be expected to fail to reach seven strikeouts today.
Best Bet: Logan Gilbert under 6.5 strikeouts at -130 with Bovada
