MLB Bet or Fade for May 19: Dogs Are Barking Tonight
New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, May 19, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Fenway Park
Kodai Senga's Upcoming Regression
For the Mets tonight, Kodai Senga will start.
People are commonly raving about Senga's season thus far. It is true that his ERA looks very attractive.
However, he has benefited from an unsustainably high strand rate. Moreover, his BABIP (batting average of balls in play) should be higher considering the significant extent to which batters are making hard contact with his pitches.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 1.82 higher than his ERA. This is a tremendous disparity.
As such, we should expect regression from Senga. He will give up some runs today.
Boston's Starter
Hunter Dobbins starts for the Red Sox tonight.
His last start notwithstanding, which came against a tough matchup on the road in Detroit, Dobbins is having a strong rookie season.
As evident in his miniscule walk rate, he exhibits strong command. He has a good mix of pitches, his favorite one being his fastball that boasts strong velocity and plenty of spin.
His outlook tonight is solid against a Mets lineup that slugs .383 against his pitches from righties.
A superficial and insufficiently informed first glance at this pitching matchup screams Mets, and a lot of bettors will lamely be on them. But a deeper dive shows that the Red Sox are a terrific home underdog and deserve an investment.
Best Bet: First-Five Red Sox ML at +110 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics
Monday, May 19, 2025 at 10:05 p.m. ET at Sutter Health Park
Ice-Cold Athletics
Much has been written about the improvement that the Athletics have shown in their lineup.
It is true that, overall, they are scoring more runs per game than they did last year.
But we can't let simplistic narratives distract us from the changes that are constantly taking place.
This change is decisive for tonight's matchup: the Athletics are currently struggling at the plate.
They have failed to exceed two runs in any of their last four games. In their last five games, they have scored a combined total of eight runs.
Sizzling Jose Soriano
The Angels have a clear edge in tonight's pitching matchup.
Jose Soriano starts for them. His form is superb right now even though his superficial data doesn't fully show it.
In each of his last four starts, he yielded an FIP below 3.10. His victims include a Detroit team that ranks fourth in runs per game.
Given how well-tested and strong he currently is, he must be relied upon to thrive against a cold Athletics lineup that slugs .389 against his favorite pitches from righties.
Angels' Bats Are Ready
The Angels do not share the cold hitting form of the A's.
The Angels have scored at least six runs in each of their last three games.
Their outlook tonight is particularly solid against a pitcher in J.T. Ginn who is making his first start since April 24 after suffering from right elbow inflammation.
His health won't help him against an Angels lineup that ranks fourth with a .462 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Even if Ginn isn't rusty, their lineup will appear clearly superior today.
Best Bet: First-Five Angels ML at +100 with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, May 19, 2025 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium
Respect for Brandon Pfaadt
Tonight's starter for Arizona, Brandon Pfaadt, doesn't get much respect in a rotation that features big names like Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes.
In the right spot, though, Pfaadt deserves that respect. His outlook is great tonight because he loves facing the Dodgers.
Last year, his FIP was 1.33 and 0.70 in his two respective starts against them.
This year, he threw 6.1 shutout innings against them. His FIP was 2.61.
Shohei Ohtani, for example, has more strikeouts than hits with Pfaadt on the mound.
The Dodgers' Desperation
Tonight, we will see the desperation plaguing the Dodgers with three of their usual starting pitchers currently injured. Clayton Kershaw is back but rusty.
They really lack options at the position. So they have to stick with Landon Knack, who belongs in Triple A where his numbers (3.98 ERA, 3.86 FIP) wouldn't even be impressive if they were his MLB stats.
His command is poor, and he gives up too many home runs. He is a liability that, even more than the A's team that just slammed him, Arizona is primed to exploit.
The Diamondbacks rank first with a .488 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
You have to look past team names and look at the players who are playing. Arizona is clearly worth betting on.
Best Bet: First-Five Diamondbacks ML at +110 with BetOnline
The Bet I Am Passing On
One almost-bet is worth mentioning. For matchup-related reasons, I really wanted to like the Astros.
But Colton Gordon is starting for them, and I can't trust him. While he is a lefty going against a Rays team that ranks second-to-last in slugging against lefties, he most recently struggled against a Royals lineup that ranks third-to-last in the category.
I can't like the Rays' lineup today, but I also can't like the pitcher they're facing.
New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, May 19, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Fenway Park
Kodai Senga's Upcoming Regression
For the Mets tonight, Kodai Senga will start.
People are commonly raving about Senga's season thus far. It is true that his ERA looks very attractive.
However, he has benefited from an unsustainably high strand rate. Moreover, his BABIP (batting average of balls in play) should be higher considering the significant extent to which batters are making hard contact with his pitches.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 1.82 higher than his ERA. This is a tremendous disparity.
As such, we should expect regression from Senga. He will give up some runs today.
Boston's Starter
Hunter Dobbins starts for the Red Sox tonight.
His last start notwithstanding, which came against a tough matchup on the road in Detroit, Dobbins is having a strong rookie season.
As evident in his miniscule walk rate, he exhibits strong command. He has a good mix of pitches, his favorite one being his fastball that boasts strong velocity and plenty of spin.
His outlook tonight is solid against a Mets lineup that slugs .383 against his pitches from righties.
A superficial and insufficiently informed first glance at this pitching matchup screams Mets, and a lot of bettors will lamely be on them. But a deeper dive shows that the Red Sox are a terrific home underdog and deserve an investment.
Best Bet: First-Five Red Sox ML at +110 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics
Monday, May 19, 2025 at 10:05 p.m. ET at Sutter Health Park
Ice-Cold Athletics
Much has been written about the improvement that the Athletics have shown in their lineup.
It is true that, overall, they are scoring more runs per game than they did last year.
But we can't let simplistic narratives distract us from the changes that are constantly taking place.
This change is decisive for tonight's matchup: the Athletics are currently struggling at the plate.
They have failed to exceed two runs in any of their last four games. In their last five games, they have scored a combined total of eight runs.
Sizzling Jose Soriano
The Angels have a clear edge in tonight's pitching matchup.
Jose Soriano starts for them. His form is superb right now even though his superficial data doesn't fully show it.
In each of his last four starts, he yielded an FIP below 3.10. His victims include a Detroit team that ranks fourth in runs per game.
Given how well-tested and strong he currently is, he must be relied upon to thrive against a cold Athletics lineup that slugs .389 against his favorite pitches from righties.
Angels' Bats Are Ready
The Angels do not share the cold hitting form of the A's.
The Angels have scored at least six runs in each of their last three games.
Their outlook tonight is particularly solid against a pitcher in J.T. Ginn who is making his first start since April 24 after suffering from right elbow inflammation.
His health won't help him against an Angels lineup that ranks fourth with a .462 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Even if Ginn isn't rusty, their lineup will appear clearly superior today.
Best Bet: First-Five Angels ML at +100 with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, May 19, 2025 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium
Respect for Brandon Pfaadt
Tonight's starter for Arizona, Brandon Pfaadt, doesn't get much respect in a rotation that features big names like Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes.
In the right spot, though, Pfaadt deserves that respect. His outlook is great tonight because he loves facing the Dodgers.
Last year, his FIP was 1.33 and 0.70 in his two respective starts against them.
This year, he threw 6.1 shutout innings against them. His FIP was 2.61.
Shohei Ohtani, for example, has more strikeouts than hits with Pfaadt on the mound.
The Dodgers' Desperation
Tonight, we will see the desperation plaguing the Dodgers with three of their usual starting pitchers currently injured. Clayton Kershaw is back but rusty.
They really lack options at the position. So they have to stick with Landon Knack, who belongs in Triple A where his numbers (3.98 ERA, 3.86 FIP) wouldn't even be impressive if they were his MLB stats.
His command is poor, and he gives up too many home runs. He is a liability that, even more than the A's team that just slammed him, Arizona is primed to exploit.
The Diamondbacks rank first with a .488 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
You have to look past team names and look at the players who are playing. Arizona is clearly worth betting on.
Best Bet: First-Five Diamondbacks ML at +110 with BetOnline
The Bet I Am Passing On
One almost-bet is worth mentioning. For matchup-related reasons, I really wanted to like the Astros.
But Colton Gordon is starting for them, and I can't trust him. While he is a lefty going against a Rays team that ranks second-to-last in slugging against lefties, he most recently struggled against a Royals lineup that ranks third-to-last in the category.
I can't like the Rays' lineup today, but I also can't like the pitcher they're facing.
