MLB Best Bets for April 1: Underrated Pitchers Duel in Oakland
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park
The Angels' Starter
Chase Silseth starts for L.A.
It is good for Silseth that he's a starter because his numbers last year were significantly stronger in his starts than in his relief appearances.
As a starter, he struck out way more batters, walked fewer ones, and allowed fewer runs than he did as a reliever.
He certainly has the endurance to be a starter – he went as many as seven innings last year.
Key Point
The key point for this game is that Silseth has the ability to be a professional starter – and a good one at that – whereas Miami's starter remains mired in an inchoate developmental phase.
In his starts last year, Silseth only struggled against top-tier Rays and Orioles lineups, both of which ranked top-seven in runs per game, although he did have good starts against stronger lineups, such as Atlanta's.
Silseth's Outlook Tonight
He was most reliable against weaker lineups, creating a strong outlook for him tonight against an annually weak Miami lineup that ranks in the bottom half in runs per game.
The matchup is also good for Silseth in view of the pitches he throws.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, sweeper, split finger, sinker, and cutter. These pitches combine to make up 95 percent of his arsenal.
His outlook is solid tonight also because the Marlins slug .255 against these pitches from righties.
Miami's Starter Max Meyer
Meyer is a young guy with two career professional starts to his name.
Those starts took place in 2022. His season was upended by injury. Now he's trying to reestablish himself after enduring Tommy John surgery.
In 2022, he struggled to last five innings.
He throws too few pitches, and the velocity differential between his different pitches is way too low. Both of these factors make it easy for hitters to adjust to him.
His arsenal lacks the development of a good starter, although in some respects it also lacks the quality of a good reliever.
Before five innings have taken place tonight, L.A.'s batters will have figured him out, which is great because then we don't have to rely on the Angels' awful bullpen.
Best Bet: Angels First-Half ML at -105 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Abbott At Plus Money
Cincinnati starts young lefty stud Andrew Abbott tonight.
Abbott is easy to underrate because his overall season-long numbers weren't that awesome.
But we have to recall the course that his season took.
His first-half ERA was 2.38, whereas his second-half ERA was 4.79.
The key point is that Abbott proved himself to be a great pitcher in that first half and that his second-half performance does not justify criticism of his quality as a pitcher.
He faded due to fatigue reasons, which is why, upon receiving instructions from his club, he worked extra hard on strength and conditioning in the offseason.
Whether that work will pay off remains to be seen.
But it's a moot point because we are in the earliest part of the season where he will be the least tired.
Last year, Abbott allowed zero runs in his first three starts, totaling 17.2 innings.
Philadelphia's Slow-Starting Lineup
Philadelphia's start to its season recalls last year's beginning, when it failed to exceed three runs in four of its first six games, of which it lost five.
This year, the Phillies' offense is again starting slowly, positioning it 19th in runs per game. Bryce Harper is hitless.
They're especially struggling against Abbott's pitches from lefties, against which they're slugging .167.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Philly starter Cristopher Sanchez has fewer established weapons in his arsenal than Abbott does.
Sanchez relies primarily on a sinker that yielded a .297 BA and .523 slugging rate last year.
Takeaway
We get the better pitcher and the lineup that's in better form at plus money.
We'll stick to a first-half bet to focus on taking advantage of Abbott's pitching.
Best Bet: Reds First-Half ML at +135 with Bovada
Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum
Boston's Underrated Starter
Don't forget that Boston's starter tonight, Tanner Houck, achieved a 3.15 ERA in 2022.
I do not want to arbitrarily dismiss the significance of his decline last year.
Instead, I want to recognize its cause: he was recovering from a back injury that precipitated a decline in his velocity.
Understanding this cause should make us confident in expecting the return of his 2022 form because his velocity has recovered in Spring Training.
Oakland's Starter
Joe Boyle, tonight's starter for Oakland, has terrific stuff.
His last Spring Training outing makes this fact easy to forget, but his ERA was 2.93 before it.
Also recall that, while displaying strong command, he allowed three runs in three starts last year upon making his professional debut.
Boyle relies on a fastball with terrific velocity, a slider that averages ten mph less at 87 mph, and a curveball that is even slower that he distributes throughout different parts of the strike zone as well as he does his other two pitches.
His heat, locational variey, and velocity differential make him hard for batters to keep up with and to adjust to as he switches up his pitches.
Boston's Outlook
Boston's batters will especially have trouble tonight against his pitches.
They are slugging .240 against them from righties so far.
The Red Sox might hit Oakland's annually awful bullpen, though, so let's stick to a first-half bet.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 at -115 with Bovada
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park
The Angels' Starter
Chase Silseth starts for L.A.
It is good for Silseth that he's a starter because his numbers last year were significantly stronger in his starts than in his relief appearances.
As a starter, he struck out way more batters, walked fewer ones, and allowed fewer runs than he did as a reliever.
He certainly has the endurance to be a starter – he went as many as seven innings last year.
Key Point
The key point for this game is that Silseth has the ability to be a professional starter – and a good one at that – whereas Miami's starter remains mired in an inchoate developmental phase.
In his starts last year, Silseth only struggled against top-tier Rays and Orioles lineups, both of which ranked top-seven in runs per game, although he did have good starts against stronger lineups, such as Atlanta's.
Silseth's Outlook Tonight
He was most reliable against weaker lineups, creating a strong outlook for him tonight against an annually weak Miami lineup that ranks in the bottom half in runs per game.
The matchup is also good for Silseth in view of the pitches he throws.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, sweeper, split finger, sinker, and cutter. These pitches combine to make up 95 percent of his arsenal.
His outlook is solid tonight also because the Marlins slug .255 against these pitches from righties.
Miami's Starter Max Meyer
Meyer is a young guy with two career professional starts to his name.
Those starts took place in 2022. His season was upended by injury. Now he's trying to reestablish himself after enduring Tommy John surgery.
In 2022, he struggled to last five innings.
He throws too few pitches, and the velocity differential between his different pitches is way too low. Both of these factors make it easy for hitters to adjust to him.
His arsenal lacks the development of a good starter, although in some respects it also lacks the quality of a good reliever.
Before five innings have taken place tonight, L.A.'s batters will have figured him out, which is great because then we don't have to rely on the Angels' awful bullpen.
Best Bet: Angels First-Half ML at -105 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Abbott At Plus Money
Cincinnati starts young lefty stud Andrew Abbott tonight.
Abbott is easy to underrate because his overall season-long numbers weren't that awesome.
But we have to recall the course that his season took.
His first-half ERA was 2.38, whereas his second-half ERA was 4.79.
The key point is that Abbott proved himself to be a great pitcher in that first half and that his second-half performance does not justify criticism of his quality as a pitcher.
He faded due to fatigue reasons, which is why, upon receiving instructions from his club, he worked extra hard on strength and conditioning in the offseason.
Whether that work will pay off remains to be seen.
But it's a moot point because we are in the earliest part of the season where he will be the least tired.
Last year, Abbott allowed zero runs in his first three starts, totaling 17.2 innings.
Philadelphia's Slow-Starting Lineup
Philadelphia's start to its season recalls last year's beginning, when it failed to exceed three runs in four of its first six games, of which it lost five.
This year, the Phillies' offense is again starting slowly, positioning it 19th in runs per game. Bryce Harper is hitless.
They're especially struggling against Abbott's pitches from lefties, against which they're slugging .167.
Starting Pitcher Comparison
Philly starter Cristopher Sanchez has fewer established weapons in his arsenal than Abbott does.
Sanchez relies primarily on a sinker that yielded a .297 BA and .523 slugging rate last year.
Takeaway
We get the better pitcher and the lineup that's in better form at plus money.
We'll stick to a first-half bet to focus on taking advantage of Abbott's pitching.
Best Bet: Reds First-Half ML at +135 with Bovada
Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Monday, April 1, 2024 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum
Boston's Underrated Starter
Don't forget that Boston's starter tonight, Tanner Houck, achieved a 3.15 ERA in 2022.
I do not want to arbitrarily dismiss the significance of his decline last year.
Instead, I want to recognize its cause: he was recovering from a back injury that precipitated a decline in his velocity.
Understanding this cause should make us confident in expecting the return of his 2022 form because his velocity has recovered in Spring Training.
Oakland's Starter
Joe Boyle, tonight's starter for Oakland, has terrific stuff.
His last Spring Training outing makes this fact easy to forget, but his ERA was 2.93 before it.
Also recall that, while displaying strong command, he allowed three runs in three starts last year upon making his professional debut.
Boyle relies on a fastball with terrific velocity, a slider that averages ten mph less at 87 mph, and a curveball that is even slower that he distributes throughout different parts of the strike zone as well as he does his other two pitches.
His heat, locational variey, and velocity differential make him hard for batters to keep up with and to adjust to as he switches up his pitches.
Boston's Outlook
Boston's batters will especially have trouble tonight against his pitches.
They are slugging .240 against them from righties so far.
The Red Sox might hit Oakland's annually awful bullpen, though, so let's stick to a first-half bet.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 at -115 with Bovada
