3-Pack Mixed August 14: 1 Total, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Max Fried starts for the Braves tonight.
It might seem scary to go against Fried, in view of his 2.50 ERA.
But he'll face his toughest test of the season today in terms of the matchup.
Until now, he's had it fairly easy in this sense.
He is a lefty who throws a fastball, curveball, changeup, slider, sinker, and sweeper.
Before today, he has not faced a team that ranks top-five against his pitches from lefties.
His toughest competition so far, matchup-wise, has been San Diego and Houston.
Both teams rank top-ten against his pitches from lefties, he faced them back in April when they were each slugging below .400 against his pitches from lefties.
Houston was struggling to exceed .500 and San Diego star Juan Soto had yet to find his May form. Plus, the Padres were without Fernando Tatis.
Yankees Lineup
Expect New York to thrive today because it ranks third with a .453 slugging rate against Fried's pitches from lefties.
It's not like the Yankees are only taking advantage of weak lefties.
They've victimized the Angels' Patrick Sandoval, Miami's Jesus Luzardo, and, most impressively, Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan in both of their meetings.
Who Starts for the Yankees?
Clarke Schmidt starts for the Yankees today.
Primarily, Schmidt throws a sweeper, cutter, sinker, and curveball.
These pitches make up about 99 percent of his arsenal.
Atlanta's outlook is solid today because it ranks first, by far, with a .517 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Over 9 at -115 with BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami
Who Starts for Miami?
The Marlins start Braxton Garrett tonight.
Garrett might look reliable in view of his last three starts, but these create a misleadingly positive impression of him.
First of all, locking down Detroit is unimpressive. Then, he allowed three runs to Philadelphia before, most recently, taking advantage of a slumping Cincinnati squad.
Second of all, there's a lot to dislike beneath the surface.
Most noteworthy are his diminished ability to achieve strikeouts and the increased rate at which he allows hard contact.
With more batters making contact, and with that contact being hard, one must expect a good lineup to take advantage.
Garrett's Arsenal
Plus, Garrett's arsenal is rather weak in key respects.
He throws a sinker, slider, cutter, changeup, curveball, and fastball.
His pitches lack quality in themselves.
For example, his fastball places in the seventh percentile in velocity and in the 36th percentile in spin.
These numbers indicate that his fastball is relatively easy for batters to hit.
Houston's Lineup
Hitting-wise, the Astros are tough -- they rank sixth in runs per game.
But they are going to be especially tough today because they find themselves in a bounce-back spot.
They've scored seven runs or more -- and as many as 17 runs -- in the game following each of their last five losses.
Even if they weren't in a bounce-back spot, their outlook would still be great today because they rank fourth with a .457 slugging rate against Garrett's pitches from lefties.
Of Garrett's recent opponents, only Philadelphia matches up approximately as well.
Best Bet: Braxton Garrett over 2.5 earned runs at +110 with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners today.
Gilbert enters today's game in strong form, having allowed a combined total of five earned runs in his last three starts, which came in Arizona and at home against Boston and San Diego.
Gilbert's strong outing in Arizona is typical of his extra comfort on the road.
Whereas he yields a 4.15 ERA at home, his ERA is 3.22 on the road.
Entering today's game, he has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last four road starts.
This trend is particularly impressive because he has sustained it against Houston and Baltimore, which rank top-seven in runs per game.
Gilbert's outlook today is strong against a Royals team that ranks 27th with a .375 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Brady Singer starts for the Royals today.
Singer's ERA creates a misleadingly negative impression of him.
His ERA is high because he had an awful start to his season.
But what he did in April is irrelevant to the here-and-now.
In the second half of the season, his ERA is 2.94. In August, it is 1.84.
Conclusions
The "under" will hit because Singer, like Gilbert, has a strong matchup edge.
Seattle ranks 20th with a .388 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
I also like the Royals RL because the Mariners are cooling off after their win streak ended on August 12.
The Mariners have lost two in a row, scoring a combined total of four runs in those games.
Best Bet: Parlay Royals RL at -133 & under 9 at -130 at +210 odds with BetOnline
New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
- Max Fried finally faces a tough test today
- The Yankees reliably thrive even against tough lefties
- Atlanta matches up superbly against Clarke Schmidt
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Max Fried starts for the Braves tonight.
It might seem scary to go against Fried, in view of his 2.50 ERA.
But he'll face his toughest test of the season today in terms of the matchup.
Until now, he's had it fairly easy in this sense.
He is a lefty who throws a fastball, curveball, changeup, slider, sinker, and sweeper.
Before today, he has not faced a team that ranks top-five against his pitches from lefties.
His toughest competition so far, matchup-wise, has been San Diego and Houston.
Both teams rank top-ten against his pitches from lefties, he faced them back in April when they were each slugging below .400 against his pitches from lefties.
Houston was struggling to exceed .500 and San Diego star Juan Soto had yet to find his May form. Plus, the Padres were without Fernando Tatis.
Yankees Lineup
Expect New York to thrive today because it ranks third with a .453 slugging rate against Fried's pitches from lefties.
It's not like the Yankees are only taking advantage of weak lefties.
They've victimized the Angels' Patrick Sandoval, Miami's Jesus Luzardo, and, most impressively, Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan in both of their meetings.
Who Starts for the Yankees?
Clarke Schmidt starts for the Yankees today.
Primarily, Schmidt throws a sweeper, cutter, sinker, and curveball.
These pitches make up about 99 percent of his arsenal.
Atlanta's outlook is solid today because it ranks first, by far, with a .517 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Over 9 at -115 with BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami
- Braxton Garrett is allowing a lot of hard contact while struggling to miss bats
- Garrett's arsenal is problematic in key respects
- Houston slugs Garrett's pitches from lefties very well
Who Starts for Miami?
The Marlins start Braxton Garrett tonight.
Garrett might look reliable in view of his last three starts, but these create a misleadingly positive impression of him.
First of all, locking down Detroit is unimpressive. Then, he allowed three runs to Philadelphia before, most recently, taking advantage of a slumping Cincinnati squad.
Second of all, there's a lot to dislike beneath the surface.
Most noteworthy are his diminished ability to achieve strikeouts and the increased rate at which he allows hard contact.
With more batters making contact, and with that contact being hard, one must expect a good lineup to take advantage.
Garrett's Arsenal
Plus, Garrett's arsenal is rather weak in key respects.
He throws a sinker, slider, cutter, changeup, curveball, and fastball.
His pitches lack quality in themselves.
For example, his fastball places in the seventh percentile in velocity and in the 36th percentile in spin.
These numbers indicate that his fastball is relatively easy for batters to hit.
Houston's Lineup
Hitting-wise, the Astros are tough -- they rank sixth in runs per game.
But they are going to be especially tough today because they find themselves in a bounce-back spot.
They've scored seven runs or more -- and as many as 17 runs -- in the game following each of their last five losses.
Even if they weren't in a bounce-back spot, their outlook would still be great today because they rank fourth with a .457 slugging rate against Garrett's pitches from lefties.
Of Garrett's recent opponents, only Philadelphia matches up approximately as well.
Best Bet: Braxton Garrett over 2.5 earned runs at +110 with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
- Logan Gilbert and Brady Singer enjoy strong form
- Gilbert and Singer match up well against their opposing lineup
- As a team, Seattle is cooling off
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners today.
Gilbert enters today's game in strong form, having allowed a combined total of five earned runs in his last three starts, which came in Arizona and at home against Boston and San Diego.
Gilbert's strong outing in Arizona is typical of his extra comfort on the road.
Whereas he yields a 4.15 ERA at home, his ERA is 3.22 on the road.
Entering today's game, he has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last four road starts.
This trend is particularly impressive because he has sustained it against Houston and Baltimore, which rank top-seven in runs per game.
Gilbert's outlook today is strong against a Royals team that ranks 27th with a .375 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Brady Singer starts for the Royals today.
Singer's ERA creates a misleadingly negative impression of him.
His ERA is high because he had an awful start to his season.
But what he did in April is irrelevant to the here-and-now.
In the second half of the season, his ERA is 2.94. In August, it is 1.84.
Conclusions
The "under" will hit because Singer, like Gilbert, has a strong matchup edge.
Seattle ranks 20th with a .388 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
I also like the Royals RL because the Mariners are cooling off after their win streak ended on August 12.
The Mariners have lost two in a row, scoring a combined total of four runs in those games.
Best Bet: Parlay Royals RL at -133 & under 9 at -130 at +210 odds with BetOnline
