3-Pack Mixed August 7: 1 Side, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Gavin Williams starts for the Guardians tonight.
After some rough starts in the beginning of his professional career, the rookie has figured things out and currently shows strong form.
He enters today's game having allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts.
His form is particularly impressive because he has sustained it against tough competition such as Houston, which ranks tenth in runs per game, and Texas, which ranks first in runs per game.
Williams' Arsenal
In descending order of frequency, Williams throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup.
As heat maps show, he does a great job of locating his pitches.
He consistently keeps his pitches away from the middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Instead, he ably navigates the borders of the strike zone.
His favorite pitch to throw is his fastball for which velocity is a virtue.
It averages 95.5 mph.
He plays this pitch well especially off his curveball, his third-favorite pitch, which averages an absurd 19 fewer mph and which he often buries.
The intense change of pace and change of location relative to his elevated heater both keep hitters off-balance.
Toronto's Lineup
The Blue Jays are in a classic let-down spot tonight after their excellent performance yesterday.
They are 1-5 in the game following one in which they scored ten or more runs.
The one exception came against Detroit.
Who Starts for Toronto?
Toronto starts Hyun Jin Ryu today.
He's made one start this season and has yet to find his footing.
Best Bet: Guardians ML at +118 with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Who Starts for the Reds?
Brandon Williamson starts for Cincinnati tonight.
In his last start, Williamson allowed five earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Cubs.
His poor form is consistent with his season-long struggles, which are evident in his 4.85 ERA.
As in his last start, he's struggled to minimize hard contact and prevent home runs.
Williamson's Arsenal
Primarily, Williamson throws a fastball, cutter, sweeper, changeup, and curveball.
Location is one reason why batters more easily crush his pitches.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
This is especially true of his fastball and cutter, which are the two pitches that he throws most often.
His pitches lack the quality to survive their bad placement.
For example, his fastball places in the 17th percentile in velocity and in the 45th percentile in spin.
These numbers indicate that batters have an easier time keeping up with and tracking the location of this pitch.
Williamson's cutter is even more vulnerable.
This pitch yields a .315 BA and .593 slugging rate.
Among other flaws, its movement is utterly average and unimpressive.
Jorge Soler
My favorite Marlins batter to invest in today is Jorge Soler.
Soler loves the fact that Williamson is a lefty.
Whereas Soler slugs .420 against righties, he slugs .729 against lefties.
More specifically, he matches up well against Williamson in view of the pitches Williamson throws.
Soler is 16-for-56 with a .607 slugging rate against them from lefties.
Best Bet: Jorge Soler total bases "over"
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Who Starts for Minnesota?
The Twins start Pablo Lopez today
Lopez enters today's game in strong form: in his last three games, he is averaging six innings and fewer than two earned runs allowed.
His current form recalls the 2019 version of himself, where he yielded a 3.07 ERA, that justifies his strong reputation.
Lopez's Arsenal
In addition to doing a great job at limiting walks, he places in the 88th percentile in strikeout percentage and in the 96th percentile in chase rate.
He thrives with an effective mixture of five pitches: a fastball, changeup, sweeper, curveball, and sinker.
Impressively, four of them yield a slugging rate below .390.
Tigers Lineup
Detroit is in a let-down spot today.
Before its last game, the Tigers have scored six runs or more in five different games in the second half of the season.
Looking at all five games that followed such a high-scoring output, they've scored a combined total of three runs in those five games.
But Detroit's hitting outlook is negative also apart from the bad spot it's in.
The Tigers rank dead-last with a .358 slugging rate against Lopez's pitches from righties.
Joey Wentz's Outlook
The Tigers start Joey Wentz today.
Wentz throws a fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball.
The fact that he only throws four pitches should make him relatively easy to figure out.
Minnesota has an advantage today because, while it ranks 22nd with a .406 slugging rate against Wentz's pitches from lefties, it gets to see Wentz for the third time in three weeks.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins ML at -164 & under 8.5 at -115 at +201 odds with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
- Gavin Williams has figured things out
- Toronto is in a let-down spot
- Hyun Jin Ryu has yet to find his footing this season
Gavin Williams starts for the Guardians tonight.
After some rough starts in the beginning of his professional career, the rookie has figured things out and currently shows strong form.
He enters today's game having allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts.
His form is particularly impressive because he has sustained it against tough competition such as Houston, which ranks tenth in runs per game, and Texas, which ranks first in runs per game.
Williams' Arsenal
In descending order of frequency, Williams throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup.
As heat maps show, he does a great job of locating his pitches.
He consistently keeps his pitches away from the middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Instead, he ably navigates the borders of the strike zone.
His favorite pitch to throw is his fastball for which velocity is a virtue.
It averages 95.5 mph.
He plays this pitch well especially off his curveball, his third-favorite pitch, which averages an absurd 19 fewer mph and which he often buries.
The intense change of pace and change of location relative to his elevated heater both keep hitters off-balance.
Toronto's Lineup
The Blue Jays are in a classic let-down spot tonight after their excellent performance yesterday.
They are 1-5 in the game following one in which they scored ten or more runs.
The one exception came against Detroit.
Who Starts for Toronto?
Toronto starts Hyun Jin Ryu today.
He's made one start this season and has yet to find his footing.
Best Bet: Guardians ML at +118 with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
- Brandon Williamson has struggled this season
- Jorge Soler loves facing lefties
- Soler hits Williamson's pitches from lefties very well
Who Starts for the Reds?
Brandon Williamson starts for Cincinnati tonight.
In his last start, Williamson allowed five earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Cubs.
His poor form is consistent with his season-long struggles, which are evident in his 4.85 ERA.
As in his last start, he's struggled to minimize hard contact and prevent home runs.
Williamson's Arsenal
Primarily, Williamson throws a fastball, cutter, sweeper, changeup, and curveball.
Location is one reason why batters more easily crush his pitches.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
This is especially true of his fastball and cutter, which are the two pitches that he throws most often.
His pitches lack the quality to survive their bad placement.
For example, his fastball places in the 17th percentile in velocity and in the 45th percentile in spin.
These numbers indicate that batters have an easier time keeping up with and tracking the location of this pitch.
Williamson's cutter is even more vulnerable.
This pitch yields a .315 BA and .593 slugging rate.
Among other flaws, its movement is utterly average and unimpressive.
Jorge Soler
My favorite Marlins batter to invest in today is Jorge Soler.
Soler loves the fact that Williamson is a lefty.
Whereas Soler slugs .420 against righties, he slugs .729 against lefties.
More specifically, he matches up well against Williamson in view of the pitches Williamson throws.
Soler is 16-for-56 with a .607 slugging rate against them from lefties.
Best Bet: Jorge Soler total bases "over"
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
- Pablo Lopez enjoys strong form
- Detroit's lineup is in an awful spot
- The Twins get to see Wentz for the third time in three weeks
Who Starts for Minnesota?
The Twins start Pablo Lopez today
Lopez enters today's game in strong form: in his last three games, he is averaging six innings and fewer than two earned runs allowed.
His current form recalls the 2019 version of himself, where he yielded a 3.07 ERA, that justifies his strong reputation.
Lopez's Arsenal
In addition to doing a great job at limiting walks, he places in the 88th percentile in strikeout percentage and in the 96th percentile in chase rate.
He thrives with an effective mixture of five pitches: a fastball, changeup, sweeper, curveball, and sinker.
Impressively, four of them yield a slugging rate below .390.
Tigers Lineup
Detroit is in a let-down spot today.
Before its last game, the Tigers have scored six runs or more in five different games in the second half of the season.
Looking at all five games that followed such a high-scoring output, they've scored a combined total of three runs in those five games.
But Detroit's hitting outlook is negative also apart from the bad spot it's in.
The Tigers rank dead-last with a .358 slugging rate against Lopez's pitches from righties.
Joey Wentz's Outlook
The Tigers start Joey Wentz today.
Wentz throws a fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball.
The fact that he only throws four pitches should make him relatively easy to figure out.
Minnesota has an advantage today because, while it ranks 22nd with a .406 slugging rate against Wentz's pitches from lefties, it gets to see Wentz for the third time in three weeks.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins ML at -164 & under 8.5 at -115 at +201 odds with BetOnline
