3-Pack Mixed July 31: 1 Side, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Who Starts for the Nationals?
Washington starts Jake Irvin tonight.
Irvin is a great pitcher to look for when you're looking to invest in hitter props.
This is because he consistently allows opposing lineups to be very productive.
In his last three games, he is allowing an average of two home runs, close to six hits, and close to four earned runs.
In terms of ERA, Washington also has the second-worst bullpen.
So, when Irvin leaves the game, opposing hitters will continue to get great opportunities.
Irvin's Arsenal
Irvin throws a fastball, curveball, sinker, and changeup.
The biggest reason why lineups thrive with him on the mound is his sinker.
Largely due to his tendency to leave it in the middle parts of the strike zone, his sinker yields a .357 BA and .512 slugging rate.
Yet he relies heavily on this pitch.
Christian Yelich
Yelich is having a tremendous July: he's batting .322 and slugging .600.
He has at least one hit in every game but three.
This makes him reliable in general.
But he also matches up superbly with Irvin specifically.
He is 65-for-202 with a .545 slugging rate against Irvin's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Christian Yelich over total bases
Los Angeles Angels vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:20 p.m. at Truist Park in Atlanta
Who Starts for the Angels?
Griffin Canning starts for the Angels.
Canning's last two starts create a deceptively positive impression.
While he performed well in both, he benefitted from facing a Yankees squad that, especially against righties, was miserable without Aaron Judge, and a bottom-feeder Tigers lineup.
Before facing those two teams, he allowed four earned runs in 2.2 innings to the Dodgers. This start reflects his struggles against stronger lineups.
Canning's Arsenal
In descending order of frequency, Canning throws a fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball.
His fastball largely explains why he can be counted on to struggle against tough lineups.
This pitch is the one he throws most frequently, and yet it suffers critical deficiencies.
It often lands in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Because it places in the 17th percentile in spin, batters have an easy time tracking its location.
Also, its movement is very average.
Braves Lineup
Arguably even more so than the Dodgers, the Braves own a powerful lineup.
They rank second in runs per game.
Their current form is, moreover, sizzling.
During their three-game win streak, they've scored ten, eleven, and eight runs, respectively.
They should be relied upon to prolong their solid form because they match up excellently against Canning.
With a .463 slugging rate, they rank second against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the Braves?
Atlanta starts Charlie Morton tonight.
Morton enters tonight's game suffering his worst stretch of play in the season.
He's allowed four earned runs in both of his last two games.
Opponents are doing a tremendous job of making hard contact with his pitches.
Morton's Arsenal
Morton throws a curveball, fastball, changeup, sinker, and cutter.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His poor locational tendencies leave him little to rely on.
Most problematically, his fastball yields a .476 slugging rate, and opponents slug .778 against his sinker.
Angels' Scoring Total
The Angels will do some damage on Morton because they match up well against him.
They rank second with a .483 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
However, they do not share Atlanta's strong form.
This shortcoming will inhibit them from scoring enough to keep up with Atlanta, although their strong matchup edge will help them score enough to send the game over the total.
Best Bet: Parlay Braves ML at -228 & over 10 at -110 at +175 odds with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Who Starts for the Reds?
Andrew Abbott starts for Cincinnati tonight.
Abbott's ERA makes him look a lot better than he is.
His 3.75 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that opponents are able to perform well against him.
He has benefitted from yielding a fortunately low .222 BABIP (batting average in balls in play) that, given the extent to which opponents achieve hard contact against him, will certainly rise.
In a similar vein, his 96.2-percent strand rate is absurdly high. This rate is unsustainable. So, his ERA will surely rise.
But Abbott has also benefitted from facing soft tests.
Until tonight, he's only faced one team that ranks top-10 in runs per game, a Baltimore team that, however, matched up poorly against him.
Cubs Lineup
Hitting-wise, Chicago's outlook is excellent tonight because it matches up well against Abbott.
Abbott throws a fastball, curveball, sweeper, and changeup.
The Cubs rank fourth with a .465 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Marcus Stroman starts for Chicago tonight.
He loves facing the Reds: in his career, he is 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA in six starts against them.
Best Bet: Cubs ML at -120 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
- Lineups are reliably productive against Jake Irvin
- Christian Yelich is enjoying a tremendous July
- Yelich matches up well against Irvin
Who Starts for the Nationals?
Washington starts Jake Irvin tonight.
Irvin is a great pitcher to look for when you're looking to invest in hitter props.
This is because he consistently allows opposing lineups to be very productive.
In his last three games, he is allowing an average of two home runs, close to six hits, and close to four earned runs.
In terms of ERA, Washington also has the second-worst bullpen.
So, when Irvin leaves the game, opposing hitters will continue to get great opportunities.
Irvin's Arsenal
Irvin throws a fastball, curveball, sinker, and changeup.
The biggest reason why lineups thrive with him on the mound is his sinker.
Largely due to his tendency to leave it in the middle parts of the strike zone, his sinker yields a .357 BA and .512 slugging rate.
Yet he relies heavily on this pitch.
Christian Yelich
Yelich is having a tremendous July: he's batting .322 and slugging .600.
He has at least one hit in every game but three.
This makes him reliable in general.
But he also matches up superbly with Irvin specifically.
He is 65-for-202 with a .545 slugging rate against Irvin's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Christian Yelich over total bases
Los Angeles Angels vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:20 p.m. at Truist Park in Atlanta
- Griffin Canning is unreliable against stronger lineups
- The Braves are sizzling
- The Angels are not sizzling like Atlanta, but they do match up well against Charlie Morton
Who Starts for the Angels?
Griffin Canning starts for the Angels.
Canning's last two starts create a deceptively positive impression.
While he performed well in both, he benefitted from facing a Yankees squad that, especially against righties, was miserable without Aaron Judge, and a bottom-feeder Tigers lineup.
Before facing those two teams, he allowed four earned runs in 2.2 innings to the Dodgers. This start reflects his struggles against stronger lineups.
Canning's Arsenal
In descending order of frequency, Canning throws a fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball.
His fastball largely explains why he can be counted on to struggle against tough lineups.
This pitch is the one he throws most frequently, and yet it suffers critical deficiencies.
It often lands in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Because it places in the 17th percentile in spin, batters have an easy time tracking its location.
Also, its movement is very average.
Braves Lineup
Arguably even more so than the Dodgers, the Braves own a powerful lineup.
They rank second in runs per game.
Their current form is, moreover, sizzling.
During their three-game win streak, they've scored ten, eleven, and eight runs, respectively.
They should be relied upon to prolong their solid form because they match up excellently against Canning.
With a .463 slugging rate, they rank second against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the Braves?
Atlanta starts Charlie Morton tonight.
Morton enters tonight's game suffering his worst stretch of play in the season.
He's allowed four earned runs in both of his last two games.
Opponents are doing a tremendous job of making hard contact with his pitches.
Morton's Arsenal
Morton throws a curveball, fastball, changeup, sinker, and cutter.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His poor locational tendencies leave him little to rely on.
Most problematically, his fastball yields a .476 slugging rate, and opponents slug .778 against his sinker.
Angels' Scoring Total
The Angels will do some damage on Morton because they match up well against him.
They rank second with a .483 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
However, they do not share Atlanta's strong form.
This shortcoming will inhibit them from scoring enough to keep up with Atlanta, although their strong matchup edge will help them score enough to send the game over the total.
Best Bet: Parlay Braves ML at -228 & over 10 at -110 at +175 odds with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
- Andrew Abbott's ERA is deceptively low
- The Cubs match up well against Abbott
- Marcus Stroman loves facing the Reds
Who Starts for the Reds?
Andrew Abbott starts for Cincinnati tonight.
Abbott's ERA makes him look a lot better than he is.
His 3.75 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that opponents are able to perform well against him.
He has benefitted from yielding a fortunately low .222 BABIP (batting average in balls in play) that, given the extent to which opponents achieve hard contact against him, will certainly rise.
In a similar vein, his 96.2-percent strand rate is absurdly high. This rate is unsustainable. So, his ERA will surely rise.
But Abbott has also benefitted from facing soft tests.
Until tonight, he's only faced one team that ranks top-10 in runs per game, a Baltimore team that, however, matched up poorly against him.
Cubs Lineup
Hitting-wise, Chicago's outlook is excellent tonight because it matches up well against Abbott.
Abbott throws a fastball, curveball, sweeper, and changeup.
The Cubs rank fourth with a .465 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Marcus Stroman starts for Chicago tonight.
He loves facing the Reds: in his career, he is 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA in six starts against them.
Best Bet: Cubs ML at -120 with BetOnline
