3 Picks May 8: Heat and Warrior Defenses Are Ready to Execute
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Monday, May 8, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami
Miami's Perimeter Defense
On paper, Miami's defense should be vulnerable to New York's offense in one key respect.
The Heat give up a lot of open three-point attempts.
This season-long statistical fact would seem to suggest that Miami's perimeter defense is vulnerable, which would create promise for a Knick team that likes to attempt a lot of threes.
But, first of all, New York is not good at taking advantage of favorable three-point opportunities.
The Knicks are one of the least efficient three-point shooting teams, ranking 24thin three-point efficiency overall, and they shoot worse away from home.
Star Players
A crucial difference between these teams is that Miami is able to rely on its star player whereas New York cannot rely on its own top scorer.
The Heat are undefeated in this series when Jimmy Butler plays.
Butler, affectionately known as "Playoff Jimmy," brings with him the ability to score 25 or more points in a given game especially with his scoring prowess inside the arc.
His defense is also tough, as he forces Knick players into turnovers and otherwise upends their rhythm and limits their ability to score on a given possession.
Conversely, New York depends extensively on Julius Randle, but Miami's Bam Adebayo is too tough of a defender.
Randle mustered 10 points in Game 3 as Adebayo was hounding him, preventing him from getting good shot attempts up, and forcing him into air balls.
Adebayo's length and overall physical skill set won't change, so neither will his ability to lock down Randle.
Best Bet: Heat -4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
The Importance of Miami's Defense
Miami's defense makes it hard for the Knick offense -- or any opposing offense -- to achieve three-point attempts in rhythm.
The Heat hound opposing ball-handlers with stifling on-ball pressure and they recover well to shooters who look like they might get open.
From watching game footage, Miami's swarming defense creates the impression that it is everywhere on the court at once and that Knick ball-handlers have little freedom or space to create favorable opportunities.
As a result of the Heat's defensive intensity, New York will fail to improve upon its current three-point efficiency.
The Knicks have not been inspiring optimism in themselves by producing quality possessions on offense.
If that were the case, then we could suggest a statistical likelihood that their shots start to fall.
Instead, they don't show comfort against Miami's defense, and without that comfort, they can't be expected to make shots.
Limiting Star Players
Miami has shown a decisive ability to limit New York's top scorers.
After Knick point guard Jalen Brunson made six threes in Game 2, the Heat defense swarmed him in Game 3, making it difficult from the beginning to get off good shots.
Adebayo, moreover, has clung to Randle effectively. Non-coincidentally, the Knicks failed to reach 90 points in the game where Randle scored an abysmally low 10 points.
But Miami's offense can't be expected to hit the "over" by itself.
Besides Jimmy Butler, Heat scorers aren't too worrisome, especially with sharpshooter Tyler Herro injured.
So, we should expect a low-scoring game largely thanks to Miami's defense.
Best Bet: Under 206 at -110 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Monday, May 8, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles
Los Angeles' Offensive Inconsistency
The Lakers go where LeBron and Anthony Davis, their two top stars, go.
For example, they won Game 1 with both stars combining for 52 points.
Then, they lost Game 2 with AD and LeBron combining for 18 fewer points.
The key problem is Davis: he has a terrible but relentless tendency to disappear after a big game,
In these playoffs, he has scored 20 or more points on four separate occasions.
In each of the following games, he failed to reach 20 points.
When his Lakers were blown out in Game 2, he scored all of 11 points after dropping 30 in Game 1.
The Warriors' ability to make adjustments also deserves credit.
They will swarm the interior, making up for lack of size in doing so.
A bad game from Davis puts too much pressure on LeBron to score.
But the problem with finding support for LeBron doesn't end with Davis becauseD'Angelo Russell has a similar tendency to flop after a big shooting performance.
Warriors' Shooters
Golden State will shoot its way to victory.
The Lakers' defense has been the worst one in these playoffs at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Golden State will load up with its NBA-best array of three-point shooters and make it too difficult for the Lakers to prevent all of them from getting good looks.
With three threes in Game 3, Klay Thompson was unusually quiet, so he is primed to bounce back.
The same is true for Jordan Poole, who had made six threes in Game 1.
Best Bet: Warriors +3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Monday, May 8, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami
- The Heat defense excels at preventing in-rhythm three-point attempts
- The Knicks are inefficient from deep, anyways, and struggle to move the ball quickly enough to get good looks
- Miami can count on its star player, Jimmy Butler, whereas New York cannot count on Julius Randle
Miami's Perimeter Defense
On paper, Miami's defense should be vulnerable to New York's offense in one key respect.
The Heat give up a lot of open three-point attempts.
This season-long statistical fact would seem to suggest that Miami's perimeter defense is vulnerable, which would create promise for a Knick team that likes to attempt a lot of threes.
But, first of all, New York is not good at taking advantage of favorable three-point opportunities.
The Knicks are one of the least efficient three-point shooting teams, ranking 24thin three-point efficiency overall, and they shoot worse away from home.
Star Players
A crucial difference between these teams is that Miami is able to rely on its star player whereas New York cannot rely on its own top scorer.
The Heat are undefeated in this series when Jimmy Butler plays.
Butler, affectionately known as "Playoff Jimmy," brings with him the ability to score 25 or more points in a given game especially with his scoring prowess inside the arc.
His defense is also tough, as he forces Knick players into turnovers and otherwise upends their rhythm and limits their ability to score on a given possession.
Conversely, New York depends extensively on Julius Randle, but Miami's Bam Adebayo is too tough of a defender.
Randle mustered 10 points in Game 3 as Adebayo was hounding him, preventing him from getting good shot attempts up, and forcing him into air balls.
Adebayo's length and overall physical skill set won't change, so neither will his ability to lock down Randle.
Best Bet: Heat -4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
- Miami's swarming defense will keep New York's offense uncomfortable
- New York's top scorers lack an answer for Miami's defense
- The Heat don't have too much scoring talent
The Importance of Miami's Defense
Miami's defense makes it hard for the Knick offense -- or any opposing offense -- to achieve three-point attempts in rhythm.
The Heat hound opposing ball-handlers with stifling on-ball pressure and they recover well to shooters who look like they might get open.
From watching game footage, Miami's swarming defense creates the impression that it is everywhere on the court at once and that Knick ball-handlers have little freedom or space to create favorable opportunities.
As a result of the Heat's defensive intensity, New York will fail to improve upon its current three-point efficiency.
The Knicks have not been inspiring optimism in themselves by producing quality possessions on offense.
If that were the case, then we could suggest a statistical likelihood that their shots start to fall.
Instead, they don't show comfort against Miami's defense, and without that comfort, they can't be expected to make shots.
Limiting Star Players
Miami has shown a decisive ability to limit New York's top scorers.
After Knick point guard Jalen Brunson made six threes in Game 2, the Heat defense swarmed him in Game 3, making it difficult from the beginning to get off good shots.
Adebayo, moreover, has clung to Randle effectively. Non-coincidentally, the Knicks failed to reach 90 points in the game where Randle scored an abysmally low 10 points.
But Miami's offense can't be expected to hit the "over" by itself.
Besides Jimmy Butler, Heat scorers aren't too worrisome, especially with sharpshooter Tyler Herro injured.
So, we should expect a low-scoring game largely thanks to Miami's defense.
Best Bet: Under 206 at -110 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Monday, May 8, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles
- Anthony Davis tends to flop after a good scoring performance
- The Lakers are vulnerable to allowing good looks from deep
- Golden State is the top three-point shooting team, primed to exploit L.A.'s perimeter defense
Los Angeles' Offensive Inconsistency
The Lakers go where LeBron and Anthony Davis, their two top stars, go.
For example, they won Game 1 with both stars combining for 52 points.
Then, they lost Game 2 with AD and LeBron combining for 18 fewer points.
The key problem is Davis: he has a terrible but relentless tendency to disappear after a big game,
In these playoffs, he has scored 20 or more points on four separate occasions.
In each of the following games, he failed to reach 20 points.
When his Lakers were blown out in Game 2, he scored all of 11 points after dropping 30 in Game 1.
The Warriors' ability to make adjustments also deserves credit.
They will swarm the interior, making up for lack of size in doing so.
A bad game from Davis puts too much pressure on LeBron to score.
But the problem with finding support for LeBron doesn't end with Davis becauseD'Angelo Russell has a similar tendency to flop after a big shooting performance.
Warriors' Shooters
Golden State will shoot its way to victory.
The Lakers' defense has been the worst one in these playoffs at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Golden State will load up with its NBA-best array of three-point shooters and make it too difficult for the Lakers to prevent all of them from getting good looks.
With three threes in Game 3, Klay Thompson was unusually quiet, so he is primed to bounce back.
The same is true for Jordan Poole, who had made six threes in Game 1.
Best Bet: Warriors +3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
