Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 14
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Monday, June 14, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
What Could Change?
Since the first half of Game 1, which Atlanta won by 20 points, this series has tilted unequivocally in Philadelphia's favor.
There have been hiccups where the 76ers lost a big lead and allowed Atlanta to enter into the lead.
I am thinking of Game 2, for example, where the Hawks led for a tiny stretch of time in the third quarter after being down double digits.
But the 76ers have always been able to assert or reassert themselves. They won the second half of Game 1 by 16 points and essentially never looked back, defeating Atlanta in both Games 2 and 3 by close to 20 points.
So I will ask: what could change for Game 4? I will consider reasons why one might like Atlanta more in Game 4 and explain why those reasons are bad reasons.
Focus
One might point to Game 4 in the series between Philadelphia and Washington as evidence that Philadelphia may lose focus when the series has seemingly tilted in its favor.
After all, the 76ers have blown out Atlanta in two straight games.
But a 2-1 series lead creates, mentally, a radically different situation than a 3-0 series.
With one 76er loss, the series would be even.
Moreover, I think Philadelphia has to want to win games as quickly as possible.
Its star center, Joel Embiid, basically has a ticking time bomb in the form of a meniscus that, currently, is "only" partially torn.
Philadelphia must want to play as few games as possible in order to spare Embiid to the fullest extent possible.
Danny Green
One might be bothered by the absence of Danny Green, who will definitely miss Game 4 tonight.
Green has been ruled out for 2-3 weeks with a right calf strain.
He is a veteran guard with playoff experience even before this season.
But his absence is meaningless. For starters, Green doesn't add anything on defense.
It was Green whom Doc Rivers assigned to defend Trae Young in the first half of Game 1, the one half in which Atlanta looked superior to Philadelphia by amassing 74 points largely thanks to Young's success.
Green lacks the ability on defense to stick with quicker guards.
But despite his historic reputation as an efficient three-point shooter, a reputation that he has cultivated throughout his long career, he has added negligible production on the offensive end for Philadelphia.
In three games this series, he has accumulated a combined total of nine points.
Philadelphia scored 118 points or more in every game because it could count on support from plenty of other scorers.
In addition to Embiid, who continues to convert over half of his field goal attempts this series. Tobias Harris is regularly amassing over 20 points per game.
Harris is able to drive inside, taking advantage of the absence of Atlanta's lengthy and mobile defender, De'Andre Hunter.
Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz are two other guys who have stepped up to produce double-digit scoring efforts. Ben Simmons is also able to score a lot by driving on the much smaller Trae Young inside.
Trae Young
One might see Atlanta star Trae Young's uptick in offensive production in the box score -- he upped his scoring total from 21 points in Game 2 to 28 points in Game 3 -- and reason that Young has finally figured out the 76er defense.
However, Young took advantage of garbage time in order to pad his stats. He shot 3-of-4, scoring eight points, in the fourth quarter when the game was effectively decided.
On defense, Philadelphia has lagged multiple times in this series with a significant lead.
This is why an "under" is too hard to play in this game: the 76ers have had Embiid go back to executing drop coverage when they have led by a significant amount.
Drop coverage, though, is partly what cost the 76ers in Game 1. But when they are already well ahead of Atlanta, they like to spare Embiid's knee by positioning him closer to the basket in his ball-screen coverage.
So, no, Trae Young hasn't figured out the 76er defense.
Now former Defensive Player of the Year finalist Ben Simmons is still using his superior length at 6-10 -- Young is only 6-1 -- and quickness to disrupt Young.
The Verdict
Philadelphia will continue to flourish in the paint with several different scorers who are, with varying degrees of consistency, helping the 76ers generate a top-level offensive rating and score around 120 points.
Atlanta is still struggling to succeed with its own top scorer, Trae Young, who is bothered by the length and individual quality of Ben Simmons and by Philadelphia's adjusted ball-screen coverage scheme.
After attempting an abnormally low frequency of three-pointers in Game 3, the Hawks seem to be desperate enough to depart from causes of their previous success.
Best Bet: 76ers -3 at -112 with Bookmaker
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Monday, June 14, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
What Could Change?
Since the first half of Game 1, which Atlanta won by 20 points, this series has tilted unequivocally in Philadelphia's favor.
There have been hiccups where the 76ers lost a big lead and allowed Atlanta to enter into the lead.
I am thinking of Game 2, for example, where the Hawks led for a tiny stretch of time in the third quarter after being down double digits.
But the 76ers have always been able to assert or reassert themselves. They won the second half of Game 1 by 16 points and essentially never looked back, defeating Atlanta in both Games 2 and 3 by close to 20 points.
So I will ask: what could change for Game 4? I will consider reasons why one might like Atlanta more in Game 4 and explain why those reasons are bad reasons.
Focus
One might point to Game 4 in the series between Philadelphia and Washington as evidence that Philadelphia may lose focus when the series has seemingly tilted in its favor.
After all, the 76ers have blown out Atlanta in two straight games.
But a 2-1 series lead creates, mentally, a radically different situation than a 3-0 series.
With one 76er loss, the series would be even.
Moreover, I think Philadelphia has to want to win games as quickly as possible.
Its star center, Joel Embiid, basically has a ticking time bomb in the form of a meniscus that, currently, is "only" partially torn.
Philadelphia must want to play as few games as possible in order to spare Embiid to the fullest extent possible.
Danny Green
One might be bothered by the absence of Danny Green, who will definitely miss Game 4 tonight.
Green has been ruled out for 2-3 weeks with a right calf strain.
He is a veteran guard with playoff experience even before this season.
But his absence is meaningless. For starters, Green doesn't add anything on defense.
It was Green whom Doc Rivers assigned to defend Trae Young in the first half of Game 1, the one half in which Atlanta looked superior to Philadelphia by amassing 74 points largely thanks to Young's success.
Green lacks the ability on defense to stick with quicker guards.
But despite his historic reputation as an efficient three-point shooter, a reputation that he has cultivated throughout his long career, he has added negligible production on the offensive end for Philadelphia.
In three games this series, he has accumulated a combined total of nine points.
Philadelphia scored 118 points or more in every game because it could count on support from plenty of other scorers.
In addition to Embiid, who continues to convert over half of his field goal attempts this series. Tobias Harris is regularly amassing over 20 points per game.
Harris is able to drive inside, taking advantage of the absence of Atlanta's lengthy and mobile defender, De'Andre Hunter.
Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz are two other guys who have stepped up to produce double-digit scoring efforts. Ben Simmons is also able to score a lot by driving on the much smaller Trae Young inside.
Trae Young
One might see Atlanta star Trae Young's uptick in offensive production in the box score -- he upped his scoring total from 21 points in Game 2 to 28 points in Game 3 -- and reason that Young has finally figured out the 76er defense.
However, Young took advantage of garbage time in order to pad his stats. He shot 3-of-4, scoring eight points, in the fourth quarter when the game was effectively decided.
On defense, Philadelphia has lagged multiple times in this series with a significant lead.
This is why an "under" is too hard to play in this game: the 76ers have had Embiid go back to executing drop coverage when they have led by a significant amount.
Drop coverage, though, is partly what cost the 76ers in Game 1. But when they are already well ahead of Atlanta, they like to spare Embiid's knee by positioning him closer to the basket in his ball-screen coverage.
So, no, Trae Young hasn't figured out the 76er defense.
Now former Defensive Player of the Year finalist Ben Simmons is still using his superior length at 6-10 -- Young is only 6-1 -- and quickness to disrupt Young.
The Verdict
Philadelphia will continue to flourish in the paint with several different scorers who are, with varying degrees of consistency, helping the 76ers generate a top-level offensive rating and score around 120 points.
Atlanta is still struggling to succeed with its own top scorer, Trae Young, who is bothered by the length and individual quality of Ben Simmons and by Philadelphia's adjusted ball-screen coverage scheme.
After attempting an abnormally low frequency of three-pointers in Game 3, the Hawks seem to be desperate enough to depart from causes of their previous success.
Best Bet: 76ers -3 at -112 with Bookmaker
