Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 31
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards
Monday, May 31, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (TNT) at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
Joel Embiid
76er star Joel Embiid is the centerpiece of Philadelphia’s offensive attack.
With his size —at 7’0, 280 pounds — and physicality inside, he has scored 30, 22, and 36 points in three games in this series.
I fully concede that Embiid will get his lion’s share of points.
But I say: so what?
There are sundry instances where Embiid generates a superb scoring output and, yet, the 76er team total remains insufficient to help the game go ‘over.’
For example, on April 6, Embiid scored 35 points against Boston and yet the 76ers only scored 106 points in a game that stayed well under the total posted by NBA oddsmakers.
Open Shots
When Embiid is double-teamed, he has sufficiently good vision to locate open shooters.
So a lot depends on the ability of open 76er shooters to take advantage of the attention that Embiid draws to himself by hitting open shots.
The problem is that the 76ers are not a good shooting team away from home.
During the regular season, they converted 35.6 percent of their three-point attempts on the road.
As an overall figure, this conversion rate would place them 20th in three-point percentage.
During this series, Philly has been overachieving from behind the arc relative to its regular season average without accruing a statistically significant increase in the number of their open and wide open three-point attempts.
In the regular season, Philadelphia produced wide open three-point attempts with 16.9-percent frequency and converted 40.2 percent of them.
So far in this series, the 76ers have upped their wide open three-point attempt rate by a meager .03 percent. But they are converting 45.7 percent of those wide open attempts.
Importantly, their open three-point attempt frequency has actually gone down in the playoffs, although they are converting those attempts at a higher rate than what they’ve been doing all year.
Wizard Offense vs. 76er Defense
When Washington scored 118 points in Game 1, it relied on errors in Philadelphia’s transition defense to amass points at the basket.
Beginning — to a degree — in the second half of that game, in which the Wizards mustered 56 points — and after Game 1, the 76ers adjusted.
Even including Game 1, the Wizard PPP (points per possession) on transition plays is .12 lower in the playoffs than it was in the regular season.
As for its half-court offense, the Wizards are one-dimensional.
Defenses gladly leave Russell Westbrook open behind the arc because it is well-known that he cannot shoot.
Westbrook’s primary scoring partner, Bradley Beal, could not shoot in college and he still is unreliable from behind the arc.
So far this series, Beal is shooting 3-for-20 from behind the arc.
While Beal should experience some progression in this respect, it will be offset by the three-point shooting regression in Embiid and other 76er players.
Plus, Washington is a regularly poor three-point shooting team. In the regular season, it ranked 23rd in three-point percentage.
Without being able to rely on its characteristic prowess in transition, Washington needs to find alternative ways to score more inside.
But Washington struggles to reach 100 points against Philadelphia because the 76ers possess a stout rim protector in Defensive Player of the Year finalist Joel Embiid.
Also, his backup, Dwight Howard, is a three-time winner of the award.
Elsewhere, the 76ers permit minimal driving room with the length of their defenders like fellow Defensive Player of the Year finalist Ben Simmons.
Best Bet: Under 230 at -108 with Heritage
Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Monday, May 31, 2021 at 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at FedExForum in Memphis
Donovan Mitchell’s Affect On Three-Point Shooting
Many bettors have skewed perceptions of this series because their outlook remains affected by Memphis’ victory in Game 1.
But recall that Jazz point guard Donovan Mitchell did not play in Game 1. Utah also shot an uncharacteristic 12 of 47 from deep — and still only lost by three points.
Utah’s success from deep depends partly on Mitchell’s ability to find open shooters — he averaged 5.2 assists during the regular season.
Mitchell contributes more specifically by driving inside in order to collapse the defense.
His driving ability forces defenders to pay more attention inside. He can also locate teammates behind the arc.
Open Shots
Utah is stacked with highly capable three-point shooters, for which reason it led the NBA in three-pointers made per game during the regular season.
So far in the playoffs, the Jazz are accruing open three-point attempts with the fifth-highest frequency and wide open ones with easily the highest frequency.
They have too many shooters for Memphis defenders to guard, especially now that they can rely on the ball-handling prowess of Mike Conley and Mitchell.
Expect a bounce-back game from Joe Ingles, who was benched last game.
But he is a smooth ball-handler who is very efficient and proficient in the ball-screen game and generally from behind the arc.
During the regular season, he shot 45.1 percent from deep.
Turnovers
Whereas Utah wants to rely on efficiency, Memphis wants to amass more shot opportunities.
The Grizzlies score more especially by forcing more turnovers.
But largely due to Conley and now Mitchell, the Jazz are keeping Memphis well under its regular season average in steals per game.
Having two solid ball-handlers on the court allows Utah’s offense to prevent turnovers and so force the Grizzlies to be more efficient on offense.
Grizzly Offense vs. Jazz Defense
In the playoffs, Memphis has been wildly more efficient in the mid-range game than it was in the regular season. So expect regression in this area.
The Grizzlies have never been reliable from behind the arc. In the regular season, they ranked 20th in three-point percentage.
At the basket, they must contend with elite shot-blocker Rudy Gobert, who helped Utah rank fourth in the regular season at limiting opposing field goal percentage at the basket. Among playoff teams, the Jazz still rank fourth in the category.
Starts and Finishes
One may try to find a source of optimism in the fact that, in Game 3, Memphis remained close with Utah until the bitter end.
But the Grizzlies — probably due to their youth and inexperience — repeatedly struggle to finish games.
In the play-in tournament against Golden State, for example, they blew a 10-point lead that allowed the game to go into overtime.
So large swings in the opponent’s favor is to be expected from Memphis late in a game.
Moreover, the Grizzlies are bad starters in this series. Utah has come out and won the first quarter by seven, nine, and 12 points in three games.
This trend justifies a bonus first quarter play on the Jazz.
Best Bets: Jazz 1Q -1.5 at -110 with BetOnline & Jazz -5 at -108 with Heritage
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards
Monday, May 31, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (TNT) at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
Joel Embiid
76er star Joel Embiid is the centerpiece of Philadelphia’s offensive attack.
With his size —at 7’0, 280 pounds — and physicality inside, he has scored 30, 22, and 36 points in three games in this series.
I fully concede that Embiid will get his lion’s share of points.
But I say: so what?
There are sundry instances where Embiid generates a superb scoring output and, yet, the 76er team total remains insufficient to help the game go ‘over.’
For example, on April 6, Embiid scored 35 points against Boston and yet the 76ers only scored 106 points in a game that stayed well under the total posted by NBA oddsmakers.
Open Shots
When Embiid is double-teamed, he has sufficiently good vision to locate open shooters.
So a lot depends on the ability of open 76er shooters to take advantage of the attention that Embiid draws to himself by hitting open shots.
The problem is that the 76ers are not a good shooting team away from home.
During the regular season, they converted 35.6 percent of their three-point attempts on the road.
As an overall figure, this conversion rate would place them 20th in three-point percentage.
During this series, Philly has been overachieving from behind the arc relative to its regular season average without accruing a statistically significant increase in the number of their open and wide open three-point attempts.
In the regular season, Philadelphia produced wide open three-point attempts with 16.9-percent frequency and converted 40.2 percent of them.
So far in this series, the 76ers have upped their wide open three-point attempt rate by a meager .03 percent. But they are converting 45.7 percent of those wide open attempts.
Importantly, their open three-point attempt frequency has actually gone down in the playoffs, although they are converting those attempts at a higher rate than what they’ve been doing all year.
Wizard Offense vs. 76er Defense
When Washington scored 118 points in Game 1, it relied on errors in Philadelphia’s transition defense to amass points at the basket.
Beginning — to a degree — in the second half of that game, in which the Wizards mustered 56 points — and after Game 1, the 76ers adjusted.
Even including Game 1, the Wizard PPP (points per possession) on transition plays is .12 lower in the playoffs than it was in the regular season.
As for its half-court offense, the Wizards are one-dimensional.
Defenses gladly leave Russell Westbrook open behind the arc because it is well-known that he cannot shoot.
Westbrook’s primary scoring partner, Bradley Beal, could not shoot in college and he still is unreliable from behind the arc.
So far this series, Beal is shooting 3-for-20 from behind the arc.
While Beal should experience some progression in this respect, it will be offset by the three-point shooting regression in Embiid and other 76er players.
Plus, Washington is a regularly poor three-point shooting team. In the regular season, it ranked 23rd in three-point percentage.
Without being able to rely on its characteristic prowess in transition, Washington needs to find alternative ways to score more inside.
But Washington struggles to reach 100 points against Philadelphia because the 76ers possess a stout rim protector in Defensive Player of the Year finalist Joel Embiid.
Also, his backup, Dwight Howard, is a three-time winner of the award.
Elsewhere, the 76ers permit minimal driving room with the length of their defenders like fellow Defensive Player of the Year finalist Ben Simmons.
Best Bet: Under 230 at -108 with Heritage
Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Monday, May 31, 2021 at 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at FedExForum in Memphis
Donovan Mitchell’s Affect On Three-Point Shooting
Many bettors have skewed perceptions of this series because their outlook remains affected by Memphis’ victory in Game 1.
But recall that Jazz point guard Donovan Mitchell did not play in Game 1. Utah also shot an uncharacteristic 12 of 47 from deep — and still only lost by three points.
Utah’s success from deep depends partly on Mitchell’s ability to find open shooters — he averaged 5.2 assists during the regular season.
Mitchell contributes more specifically by driving inside in order to collapse the defense.
His driving ability forces defenders to pay more attention inside. He can also locate teammates behind the arc.
Open Shots
Utah is stacked with highly capable three-point shooters, for which reason it led the NBA in three-pointers made per game during the regular season.
So far in the playoffs, the Jazz are accruing open three-point attempts with the fifth-highest frequency and wide open ones with easily the highest frequency.
They have too many shooters for Memphis defenders to guard, especially now that they can rely on the ball-handling prowess of Mike Conley and Mitchell.
Expect a bounce-back game from Joe Ingles, who was benched last game.
But he is a smooth ball-handler who is very efficient and proficient in the ball-screen game and generally from behind the arc.
During the regular season, he shot 45.1 percent from deep.
Turnovers
Whereas Utah wants to rely on efficiency, Memphis wants to amass more shot opportunities.
The Grizzlies score more especially by forcing more turnovers.
But largely due to Conley and now Mitchell, the Jazz are keeping Memphis well under its regular season average in steals per game.
Having two solid ball-handlers on the court allows Utah’s offense to prevent turnovers and so force the Grizzlies to be more efficient on offense.
Grizzly Offense vs. Jazz Defense
In the playoffs, Memphis has been wildly more efficient in the mid-range game than it was in the regular season. So expect regression in this area.
The Grizzlies have never been reliable from behind the arc. In the regular season, they ranked 20th in three-point percentage.
At the basket, they must contend with elite shot-blocker Rudy Gobert, who helped Utah rank fourth in the regular season at limiting opposing field goal percentage at the basket. Among playoff teams, the Jazz still rank fourth in the category.
Starts and Finishes
One may try to find a source of optimism in the fact that, in Game 3, Memphis remained close with Utah until the bitter end.
But the Grizzlies — probably due to their youth and inexperience — repeatedly struggle to finish games.
In the play-in tournament against Golden State, for example, they blew a 10-point lead that allowed the game to go into overtime.
So large swings in the opponent’s favor is to be expected from Memphis late in a game.
Moreover, the Grizzlies are bad starters in this series. Utah has come out and won the first quarter by seven, nine, and 12 points in three games.
This trend justifies a bonus first quarter play on the Jazz.
Best Bets: Jazz 1Q -1.5 at -110 with BetOnline & Jazz -5 at -108 with Heritage
