Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 24
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Monday, May 24, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Continuity in Milwaukee’s Defensive Style
A key part of predicting how playoff games will go is understanding that there will always be a degree of both continuity and variance.
It is unlikely that a game — Game 2, for example -- in a single series between the same teams will play out as the game before — Game 1, for example — because there will be variance in execution and there will be tactical variance.
Before I get into variance, though, I want to talk about continuity.
In some respects, Milwaukee’s defense will look the same because its defense has done certain things the same way all year.
The Bucks like to pack the paint. They are known for playing conservative ball-screen coverage that is focused on protecting the basket.
They also have top-level help-defenders like perennial MVP candidate Giannis and others who help inside to secure the paint area.
Given this paint-packing scheme of theirs, they allowed both the second-fewest field goal attempts and the third-lowest field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket during the regular season.
In the playoffs thus far, they’ve allowed both the fewest field goal attempts per game plus the lowest field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket
Affecting Jimmy Butler
Milwaukee’s paint-packing strategy worked to nullify the offensive skill set of Miami’s regular season leading scorer Jimmy Butler.
In Game 1, Butler was 4-for-22 from the field. He attempted way more three-pointers than he usually does with negligible success and atrocious efficiency.
He has stated that, in Game 2, he would continue to take those open shooting opportunities. I believe him because it’s tempting to attempt open shots.
The problem is: he consistently can’t make them. In the regular season, he converted 25.6 percent of his open three-point attempts and 29.7 percent of his wide open ones.
In addition to failing to take advantage of the opportunities that Milwaukee’s defense gave him in his area of weakness (behind the arc), and struggling with Milwaukee’s defensive scheme, Butler struggled with Milwaukee’s top individual defenders.
Giannis’ individual defensive quality is already more well-known because he’s been named Defensive Player of the Year before.
Besides being a strong help defender, Giannis is an impactful one-on-one defender and rim protector who significantly lowers an opponent’s field goal efficiency by guarding him.
PJ Tucker’s defensive quality is unappreciated on an official level. But he is still well-reputed for his individual guarding ability by players who have competed with him,
Kevin Durant, for example, said that Tucker’s one-on-one defense was the toughest that he’s ever faced. After Game 1, Butler might agree.
Heat Scoring Outlook
Miami will need more inside from Butler as well as from Bam Adebayo, who struggled because he was too passive, too focused on facilitating, and encountered Milwaukee’s stout interior defense.
Against the Bucks’ porous perimeter defense that, partly due to the team’s focus on defending the interior, allowed the most three-pointers made per game in the regular season, guys like Duncan Robinson and Goran Dragic will get theirs.
In game 1, both Robinson and Dragic combined for 49 of Miami’s 107 points (including overtime).
But 107 points (including overtime) isn’t a lot. By themselves, Robinson and Dragic can only do so much.
Miami isn’t a team like Utah or Milwaukee that is stacked with high-volume three-point shooters. It relies on inside scoring from guys like Butler.
Milwaukee Offense
In the regular season, few teams made more three-pointers per game than Milwaukee.
Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are two reasons why. The former attempted 5.4 three-pointers per game and converted 41.4 percent of them. The latter attempted 4.8 per game and converted 39.2 percent of them.
But in Game 1, the Bucks' shots simply weren’t falling. It’s not like they were attempting contested three-pointers.
Instead, the Bucks made two of 12 open three-point attempts and one of 12 wide open ones.
During the regular season, the Heat allowed just .5 fewer three-pointers made per game than Milwaukee. So their perimeter defense shares Milwaukee’s struggles.
Given what we know about Milwaukee’s usual success from deep and Miami’s usual problems with defending the three-point line, we should regard the Bucks’ Game 1 output from behind the arc as anomalous.
The Verdict
Milwaukee has a better chance of improving upon its offensive output in Game 1 because of its characteristic strength behind the arc, Miami’s typically porous perimeter defense, and the Bucks’ stout interior defense.
For these three reasons, I like the Bucks to win by double digits.
Regarding the total, Milwaukee will score more than it did in Game 1 with greater success from behind the arc.
Tactically, on offense, the Heat will use ball-screens, dribble-handoffs, and cuts to manufacture points in ways that they didn’t do in Game 1.
We should expect that, individually, Butler and Adebayo will be a lot better because, as the team’s top-two scorers in the regular season, and given previous games that they’ve played against the Bucks, they’ve proven themselves to be more reliable commodities on offense.
So also take the “over.”
Best Bets: Bucks -4.5 at -108 with Heritage & Heat/Bucks Over 222.5 at -108 with Heritage
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Monday, May 24, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Continuity in Milwaukee’s Defensive Style
A key part of predicting how playoff games will go is understanding that there will always be a degree of both continuity and variance.
It is unlikely that a game — Game 2, for example -- in a single series between the same teams will play out as the game before — Game 1, for example — because there will be variance in execution and there will be tactical variance.
Before I get into variance, though, I want to talk about continuity.
In some respects, Milwaukee’s defense will look the same because its defense has done certain things the same way all year.
The Bucks like to pack the paint. They are known for playing conservative ball-screen coverage that is focused on protecting the basket.
They also have top-level help-defenders like perennial MVP candidate Giannis and others who help inside to secure the paint area.
Given this paint-packing scheme of theirs, they allowed both the second-fewest field goal attempts and the third-lowest field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket during the regular season.
In the playoffs thus far, they’ve allowed both the fewest field goal attempts per game plus the lowest field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket
Affecting Jimmy Butler
Milwaukee’s paint-packing strategy worked to nullify the offensive skill set of Miami’s regular season leading scorer Jimmy Butler.
In Game 1, Butler was 4-for-22 from the field. He attempted way more three-pointers than he usually does with negligible success and atrocious efficiency.
He has stated that, in Game 2, he would continue to take those open shooting opportunities. I believe him because it’s tempting to attempt open shots.
The problem is: he consistently can’t make them. In the regular season, he converted 25.6 percent of his open three-point attempts and 29.7 percent of his wide open ones.
In addition to failing to take advantage of the opportunities that Milwaukee’s defense gave him in his area of weakness (behind the arc), and struggling with Milwaukee’s defensive scheme, Butler struggled with Milwaukee’s top individual defenders.
Giannis’ individual defensive quality is already more well-known because he’s been named Defensive Player of the Year before.
Besides being a strong help defender, Giannis is an impactful one-on-one defender and rim protector who significantly lowers an opponent’s field goal efficiency by guarding him.
PJ Tucker’s defensive quality is unappreciated on an official level. But he is still well-reputed for his individual guarding ability by players who have competed with him,
Kevin Durant, for example, said that Tucker’s one-on-one defense was the toughest that he’s ever faced. After Game 1, Butler might agree.
Heat Scoring Outlook
Miami will need more inside from Butler as well as from Bam Adebayo, who struggled because he was too passive, too focused on facilitating, and encountered Milwaukee’s stout interior defense.
Against the Bucks’ porous perimeter defense that, partly due to the team’s focus on defending the interior, allowed the most three-pointers made per game in the regular season, guys like Duncan Robinson and Goran Dragic will get theirs.
In game 1, both Robinson and Dragic combined for 49 of Miami’s 107 points (including overtime).
But 107 points (including overtime) isn’t a lot. By themselves, Robinson and Dragic can only do so much.
Miami isn’t a team like Utah or Milwaukee that is stacked with high-volume three-point shooters. It relies on inside scoring from guys like Butler.
Milwaukee Offense
In the regular season, few teams made more three-pointers per game than Milwaukee.
Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are two reasons why. The former attempted 5.4 three-pointers per game and converted 41.4 percent of them. The latter attempted 4.8 per game and converted 39.2 percent of them.
But in Game 1, the Bucks' shots simply weren’t falling. It’s not like they were attempting contested three-pointers.
Instead, the Bucks made two of 12 open three-point attempts and one of 12 wide open ones.
During the regular season, the Heat allowed just .5 fewer three-pointers made per game than Milwaukee. So their perimeter defense shares Milwaukee’s struggles.
Given what we know about Milwaukee’s usual success from deep and Miami’s usual problems with defending the three-point line, we should regard the Bucks’ Game 1 output from behind the arc as anomalous.
The Verdict
Milwaukee has a better chance of improving upon its offensive output in Game 1 because of its characteristic strength behind the arc, Miami’s typically porous perimeter defense, and the Bucks’ stout interior defense.
For these three reasons, I like the Bucks to win by double digits.
Regarding the total, Milwaukee will score more than it did in Game 1 with greater success from behind the arc.
Tactically, on offense, the Heat will use ball-screens, dribble-handoffs, and cuts to manufacture points in ways that they didn’t do in Game 1.
We should expect that, individually, Butler and Adebayo will be a lot better because, as the team’s top-two scorers in the regular season, and given previous games that they’ve played against the Bucks, they’ve proven themselves to be more reliable commodities on offense.
So also take the “over.”
Best Bets: Bucks -4.5 at -108 with Heritage & Heat/Bucks Over 222.5 at -108 with Heritage
