Monday October 13th

charvik

charvik

NHL Road Fade Guru
Hey all, in the process of looking over tonights card... Happy Thanksgiving to all north of the border!

Two early games, reasoning and leans below...

St Louis +100 (no play)/OVER 5.5 +105 (no play)

Toronto hasn't beaten the Blues at home since 1998, that's a pretty telling stat. Now granted, history doesn't mean a lot when rosters have been overhauled, but style of play does factor in here. The Leafs got outworked and embarrassed on the PK by Montreal the last outing, while the Blues (with Mason) in net had a horrible 1st period which cost them the game. Legace will be back this game, but he's only 2-4, 2.98GAA against Toronto, not exactly giving me hope for a win. Toskala will start for Toronto... No play on both side and total

Sabres -140 /UNDER 5.5 -125 (no play)
DiPietro is still not back in net for the Isles... Good thing he has a 15yr contract, LOL. MacDonald hasn't been bad in his absence, but he's not a world beater. If it wasn't for the Blues brain fart in the first period over the weekend I'm not sure the Isles would've gotten their first victory, but who cares... a win is a win... Sabres played well against the Habs, and getting VAR back together is probably going to be good for the Sabres. Miller has struggled in the past against the Isles, but was solid last outing and hopefully he'll do well here. I'll try some Sabres ML here...

Will add the night games later...
 
charvik said:
Hey all, in the process of looking over tonights card... Happy Thanksgiving to all north of the border!

Two early games, reasoning and leans below...

St Louis +100 (no play)/OVER 5.5 +105 (no play)

Toronto hasn't beaten the Blues at home since 1998, that's a pretty telling stat. Now granted, history doesn't mean a lot when rosters have been overhauled, but style of play does factor in here. The Leafs got outworked and embarrassed on the PK by Montreal the last outing, while the Blues (with Mason) in net had a horrible 1st period which cost them the game. Legace will be back this game, but he's only 2-4, 2.98GAA against Toronto, not exactly giving me hope for a win. Toskala will start for Toronto... No play on both side and total

Sabres -140 /UNDER 5.5 -125 (no play)
DiPietro is still not back in net for the Isles... Good thing he has a 15yr contract, LOL. MacDonald hasn't been bad in his absence, but he's not a world beater. If it wasn't for the Blues brain fart in the first period over the weekend I'm not sure the Isles would've gotten their first victory, but who cares... a win is a win... Sabres played well against the Habs, and getting VAR back together is probably going to be good for the Sabres. Miller has struggled in the past against the Isles, but was solid last outing and hopefully he'll do well here. I'll try some Sabres ML here...

Will add the night games later...
Click to expand...

I was looking at NYI - Im thinking its decent value for a home team......Not sure what I'll do.
 
Rangers -125/UNDER 5 -125
Big rivalry game in NY tonight with 2 very sharp goalies. The under is posted at 5, which is not surprising (-125). Lundqvist is 3-0, .944 and 1.33GAA this season, against Lightning twice and the BHawks, two teams that are supposed to be high powered offensively. Brodeur is 2-0, .951 and 0.97GAA this year, including 1 game against the Pens. I'd say both goalies are off to very good starts (*duh*). The last 5 meetings either hit the 5 or went under, making that a fairly low risk play. Rangers were 7-0-1 last year against the Devils and I think the Rangers look even better this year. I like both bets here at - money, even though I normally don't like to bet a game double. Telling quote: "The Devils have won just once in regulation in their last nine trips to Madison Square Garden."
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
I was looking at NYI - Im thinking its decent value for a home team......Not sure what I'll do.
Click to expand...
I agree that it's good value for a home team, but this is the Isles ;)

I don't see Isles winning more than maybe 2 in 10 against the Sabres.

Sure, the Isles scored some against the Blues, but that all came in 1 period, when the Blues were struggling and had their backup in net. That leaves 5 periods and only 2 more goals so far. While I am not a Miller fan, he has been solid the last couple of years. The Buffalo defense are looking sharp as well.

Maybe the true Isles are the ones that stepped up during that 1st period against the Blues, but I want to see more from them before backing them.
 
Flyers -125 (no play)/UNDER 5.5 +100 (no play)

I bet the Habs wants some revenge here after getting bumped from the playoffs by the Flyers last year... This is a tough game though. Habs had been dominant against the Flyers during the regular season last year, but lost 4-1 in the EC Semis. I think part of that was an over performing Habs team and a rookie goalie. I am not sure the Habs are ready and formed as a team yet. They have some additions this year that should work out great for them, but the debut against the Sabres didn't look all that great... Granted, they did play very well against the Leafs, but how much of that was the Leafs being bad? Biron in net for the Flyers, who had a bad 1st period against the Rangers in their opener. He's 12-7, 2.19GAA against the Habs, Price was 3-0-0 with a 1.34 GAA against the Flyers during the season before going 1-3 with a 4.13 GAA in the playoff series.
 
Capitals -135 (no play)/OVER 5.5 -105

I'm surprised by the Canucks start of the season, beating the Flames twice in a home and home series. I didn't rank them very high to start the season, and I'm still not convinced. I thought they played the fast break very well against the Flames and any team with Luongo in net can win, that's for sure. I can see Vancouver score quite a bit against a shaky Theodore, but will it be enough for the win? I think that totally comes down to Luongo... The OVER is "only" 5.5 -105, and that's going to be a play for me. Caps have scored 4 in each of their games and Nucks are averaging 5.5 themselves. I don't believe in traps, especially not in the NHL, so I'll play it as I see it. The side can go either way here, and I don't think I want any piece of it until I see more of the teams. With a better goalie for the Caps I'd play them, but with Theo in the pipes it's only a "lean".
 
Red Wings -135 (no play, if Osgood); Canes +115 (no play, if Conklin)/OVER 5.5 -120 (no play)

The Hurricanes have had 2 impressive come from behind victories to open the season, granted against 2 "lesser" teams, but still good to eat up both a 2 goal and a 3 goal deficit. Detroit had their own comeback against the Sens Saturday and they look sharp. I think the opening night loss was mostly a reaction to the banner being raised and having a hard time focusing. The Wings did get back in the 3rd period for that game. It's looking like Conklin/Ward in this game according to some sites, bt Osgod would be a better fit, at least historically as he is 12-4, 1.5GAA against the Canes. With both teams up in the air on starting goalies and having periods of irratic play I am just going to stay away from playing it.
 
Blackhawks PL +215/OVER 5.5 +105 (no play)

I was expecting Chicago to do well this year, and still do, but they have been bad starting out this year. They are 0-2-0, getting outshot 63-53, has not scored on 8 tries on the PP, lost Saturday after being up 2-0 and are making mistakes en masse. Nashville on the other hand is a team I expect to struggle, especially on the road. I'm not sold on Ellis in net and while their PK was very good last year I expect them to take a step back this season. Huet is probable for the BHawks tonight and I expect him to do well. He's 3-0-1, 1.8GAA vs Nashville. I think the Chicago offense will come out in full force tonight and expect an easy win. With the ML being -145, I will go puck line here at +215. No play on the total, as I'm not sure that Nashville can help out much, and I have the game at 6 goals right now... If forced I'd go over...
 
So... Monday's plays:

Sabres -140
Rangers -125
Devils/Rangers UNDER 5 -125
Canucks/Capitals OVER 5.5 -105
Blackhawks PL +215

I won't have time to write up every game, every day, but thought I'd might as well today as I'm having a slow morning at work... I hope people appreciate it...

:tiphat:
 
Wings/Canes OVER 5.5 -120 might be upgraded to a play if I can get confirmation on Conklin/Ward. Probably going to be a game time decision for me...
 
I wouldn't be too concerned if osgood doesn't start, he's not one of the top 10 goalies in the league in my opinion. With Detroit's puck control style of game, on most nights it's not going to matter who is in net. Conklin will be a decent back up he played very well for pitt last year when fleury was hurt.

Best of luck this season!

:cheers:
 
thanks guys... gl to you all too.:cheers:

Looks like the Blues are going to not play the 1st period all year, lol... go Leafs!!!:tiphat:
 
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