Monday Night Winner- Writeup- Eagles +7

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
The NFL in my eyes has become quite predictable of late and certain trends have to be taken into consideration.

The basement teams are never to be bet-- they are so far behind the other teams in this league--

THe elite teams, Gbay, Dallas, Denver will score all day on the cellar dwellar teams all night long---

When looking at this weeks games consider how the point spread is involved, people look at the point spread rather than the teams involved-

The Dolphins were +7, Rams were +7.5, Bengals were Pick, Lions were +3 at home--

These 4 teams are bloody horrible and cannot beat anyone, they are just complete shit--

Now tonight we have a team in the Eagles getting +7?

Dallas is a good team, especially at beating the weaker to average teams.

However Mr. Tony ROMO lost to Giants and Philly last year at home. ROMO has about 45 minutes to survey the field and make a decision. Their routes often result in a receiver coming all the way across the field to the other side. THe receivers have all day to get open and run deep routes also--

Solution: NY GIANTS: they blitz the shit out of ROMO, and he cannot beat them. They make him throw the ball quickly, RESULT DALLAS losing in the playoff game--

Eagles won in Dallas last year using the same strategy, blitzing ROMO--


When you really look at a football game it is simple. You have 2 teams tonight, Dallas has the name playmakers- ROMO, OWENS WHITTEN and BARBER-- So everyone thinks of them scoring all day because of their past reputation. If you really look at their past they score on weak to avg teams and score less on really good defenses--

No one is considering that the Eagles also have playmakers, Westbrook, Reggie Brown, Shelton, Mcnabb-

You have 2 evenly matched teams, in fact Philly has won 6 of the last 8 in DALLAS.

Philly has a capable ball control offense and a good enough defense to make stops and force turnovers.

DALLAS is a good team, but I dont think they are a great team, that is the difference here. Dallas is not heads and shoulders better than the EAGLES-

The Eagles D coordinator knows ROMO, ROMO has flaws beating the blitz, he is not a west coast QB like HASSELBECK of Seattle who makes his reads in a microsecond and throws the ball. ROMO holds the ball for at least 3.5 seconds and then throws a route that a receiver gets open late-

To bet on DALLAS you have to basically control the game offensively and score quite a bit, all while stopping the Eagles enough in this game-

The only team that can stop the Eagles is the Giants. Giants know how to rush and pressure the Eagles.

A common recipe here is that these teams know each other very well, in fact the Eagles coordinator knows the dallas personnel very well. This is why divisional games are closer, because teams know what the other team will do.

THe Cleveland game was great, except I doubt it cleveland knew anything Dallas would run and how to stop it. Dallas won that game but CLEVELAND will be 5-11 this year anyway--

Philly is traditionally a great dog, has great success in Dallas? How did DALLAS improve from last years team? They blew out Cleveland on national Tv?

There is no reason to substantiate Dallas as a 7 point favorite unless one feels they can score at least 31 points----

What I do like is that the Eagles have a capable offense that can score and make plays- I have the more experienced QB in MCNABB with a variety of targets to throw to-- I cannot go wrong with this team, coaching edge is with pHILLY also--

I have possibly the #2 team in the NFC getting a TD in a primetime game on the road?

Philly is the play at +7-- Dont over analyze it, Dallas is good, but Philly is a better overall team IMO---

Anyone who thinks Dallas is a great team, consider they have good regular seasons and then are one and done in the playoffs-- Reason- talent and skill wins games in regular season, but in the playoffs the BEST TEAMS WINS-- IN this case with a playoff type atmosphere I will take what I believe to be a better overall team in PHILLY over DALLAS at +7.
 
Defense wins games------

Dallas last year lost to both Giants and Eagles at home? How did that happen with OWens and ROMO and BARBER???

DEFENSE-- It comes down to Dallas losing to teams with better defenses, its as simple as that-

I feel Philly has a better defense than DALLAS- Dallas is not dominant on D and can be beat through the air--

Anytime I can get a team with the talent of Philly at +7 I am all over it- NO injuries at all, in fact Dallas Barber is a little knicked up-

Also when this game is played and is close at halftime, in the 2nd half as we saw with PITTS, Dallas will be trying to win the game, and not cover the game. Dallas backers have the belief that Dallas will score all day on PHILLY-

They scored 28 on Cleveland, but Cleveland had no pass rush at all. A little thing called QB PRESSURE is a 7 point favorites worst nightmare. IT has hurt Dallas in the past and will hurt them again tonight--
 
Also another golden rule if you look at the past 2 years of Monday night winners is that if you take the better QB you would win almost all of the monday night games--

I am not saying Mcnabb is as good as ROMO, but I do think it is close, ROMO is younger and can be good, but MCNABB is no slouch--

With the closeness of the QB play, it does not warrant a +7 spread, not even close--

Can Mcnabb match ROMO's play or outplay him? I think he can, as ROMO has been outplayed in the past in divisional games--

For the record if DALLAS was playing and laying -7 to -10 at a team like CINCY or Rams or Dolphins I would be all over DALLAS. THat is the game they kick ass--

You kick DALLAS in the teeth, they fall down and dont fight back. The giants did it to them and Eagles last year by harrassing ROMO. ROMO is a rythm QB, he needs all day to throw, he cannot make quick throws, he does not have the mechanics, he sees a guy open and slings the ball.

Dallas will run into trouble because all of their pass routes are way too long downfield- they dont have the quick routes to beat the blitz. This results in ROMO getting sacked or fumbling the ball-

Even Jason WHITTEN he is always at least 15 yards downfield and has run about 4 moves on the defenders before the ball is thrown to him--


Another key key factor is that I know I have the better coach in ANDY REID, he is smarter than WADE PHILLIPS.

"DALLAS IS A FRONT RUNNER TEAM IN THAT WHEN THEY GET UP ON YOU THEY WILL KEEP SCORING ON YOU"

"However when they cannot get up on you, like Wade Phillips has not been able to get up on the Eagles and Giants it is hard for a coach like WADE to outcoach a smart football coach like Andy REID-

Coaching means a lot and when you get a clear advantage at coaching for the underdog, that is huge--

This line should be Dallas -4 - I have been given 3 free points


"FRONT RUNNING TEAMS CANNOT BLOW OUT HARD NOSED CONSISTENT SOLID TEAMS"
- It is no surprise that Dallas cannot win in the playoffs, they are not designed to beat those teams--

Consider this" A team in DALLAS looks so good when they beat the Clevelands, Rams, Redskins, Ravens, Minnesota, of the league--

However as good as they look when they beat those teams, they look just as bad when they play the Giants or the Eagles or any solid defensive team-- This proves their true identity of this team.

DALLAS is only as good as their opponent- IF they play a weak team that they have advantages, they beat them easily--

If they play a good D team, they lose, its as simple as that-
 
I am with you Sammy.Locked in Philly last night at +7. If they want to give me +7 on Philly against any team in the NFL on the road I will take it. Dallas is overrated. Insert fishing pole with line and bait and Dallas is the fish swimming to the worm.hahaha
 
I hate seeing you on this side Sammy. But I disagree with many of your above points. Specifically:

The weapons that Philly has. Westbrook fine. Mcnabb - ok, maybe. But Reggie Brown and Shelton? First of all Reggie Brown is hurt. Yeah, he's playing but Reid said his role tonight will be limited and he's not going to be "an every down guy". I think you're reaching a bit here.

Also, you mention Philly's cover at Dallas last year, but what happened in Philly. Dallas clubbed them. Big time.

Here's the one thing that really scares me about Philadelphia:

in 10 of 16 games last year they failed to score more than 17 points. How many times did this happen to Dallas? Let's look.

In their first thirteen games last season Dallas scored more than 24 points 13 times. 100%..... Yeah Philly held them under 10 in game 14 then they got complacent, resting starters etc and didn't do much the last two weeks..... But I really am not buying the Philly angle tonight.

Also Dallas beat the Eagles (by 21) last year, swept the super bowl champs in the regular season (wins by 10 and 11), beat GB by 10, Minny by 10, and the Bears (in primetime on the road) by 24. All of these teams are in the same caliber as this Philly team if you ask me.
 
Good luck Scdoggy, you bring up some good points, that is the beauty of betting, half the people think one way the other half think the other way-

A new and simple RULE i have invoked and been working on this new system-

1-Favorites to be bet-- ELITE TEAMS with great defenses- USC, GEORGIA, Oklahoma,

2-Favorites to be bet- Against any cellar dwellar teams when the line is reasonable, under 7 points--

3- DOGS to be bet- In any game where the dog appears to be a decent team, or the favorite is not deserving of the favorite role--


I have 3 rules- I feel Dallas fits Rule #3-- Philly is a decent team, and I dont think Dallas deserved to be a favorite of 7 points vs a divisional team that has a good secondary and has some gamers on offense and a better coach--

Ie- If I feel 2 teams are close to each other I will be taking the DOGS and hammering against the dolphins, rams and bengals.
 
Won't argue with that rationale Sammy. I always read your threads and value your opinions. We've just got different ones when it comes to this game.

If I were invoking the same said rules listed above, I'd have a conflict here as I see Dallas meeting point number one, and I'll agree that Philly meets rule number three (at least the first half of it). I do think the Eagles are a decent team, with a pretty good defense (great rationale for betting a dog anywhere, any time).

But I have Dallas as a top three team in the NFL right now and put Philly in a category with a lot of unproven middle of the pack squads. A lot of questions will be answered tonight. Should be a fun one to watch.

Good luck.
 
Giants got a great pass rush... never blitzing more than 1 additional man on top of their 4 man front. That leaves 6 guys in coverage and had one of the best DLines in history. Not so sure Philly's this year is nearly as good as the G men of last year.

Jones gives them a new dimension for dump offs as well.

Eagles will have to blitz 6-7 guys to get pressure. Romo can move.. they will shift the pocket...

For your cover you need the Eagles to learn how to move the ball without any WR's. They have no running game to balance anything out... Cowboys despite being known as a "finess" team have some of the best all-around tacklers in the league...

Good health bro
 
Philly is more of an intelligent team inspekdah--

THey run a lot of screens, and use the tight ends also. and the wide receivers are fine--

Philly is fine Inspekdah, your comment makes it look like we cannot run the ball at all or pass the ball to wide receivers- Philly will blitz guys off the edge--

Philly has Samuels who will take out Creighton and then sheldon brown will cover TO and they will double cover him with the safety-

Philly works with good schemes and good coaching-- They will move the ball by commitee, they use more players and IMO have more players who want to help the team win.

This is the NFL the Eagles have good wide receivers, if they were not good they would be in the NFL, and also they will run the ball. They are not intimidated which is great and they believe they can beat this team which is another big key.

MCNABB was hot last week and he can really light it up when he is hot-


When in doubt people will always side with the named players and the team with the fun and gun offense. I see that happening here again.

Romo and TO and cowboys are the sexy pick, but the smart pick is the blue collared hard nosed team in the Eagles.
 
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Double cover TO. Take best CB on Crayton... and blitz around the edges? Sounds like Witten all day baby!
 
This line should be Dallas -4 - I have been given 3 free points

Didnt expect such a high scoring game, but not surprised by the game. Eagles have a very big O line and a rejuvinated D MCNABB. THE Boys D is not a championship defense--

OVerall I will take the value against the cowboys when they play great teams, but will take them everytime vs average teams. They will score bigtime vs any average teams for sure.
 
Thanks guys, I hit a point where I had a lot of free time and started abusing betting and not thinking, and basically not using my brain. It was a tough time to deal with as I was humiliated as I had to meet a bookie to pay him this week. I came to the point where I knew I was betting stupid bets and kept on doing it, thinking I was invinsible. Overall I did not lose much money, only a couple of thousand, but it was the bad habits I fell into.

But it was the best thing to happen to me, as it forced me to refocus and get my game back.

I am confident now that I will get the cash in the future, as I needed a wakeup call.

Ps- Eagles receivers are pretty good, a lot of good receivers, Jackson, Lewis, Westbrook, Avant, everyone is capable, they dont have a #1 star receiver but they have about 5 quality receivers that run hard and can catch, and moreimportantly work in this offense- Again NO OWENS, no named player, but this is the players that can bring the cash home because they get no respect from the linesmamkers.

Ps- THe NFL this year to me looks like a good season and good opportunity to make money this year, because there is no parity. I like this a lot. I like it when I have teams that are heads and shoulder above the rest like Dallas, Philly, Denver, Sandiego, PItts, Green Bay, some teams honestly are so bad like Cincy, Rams, Dolphins, Cleveland Offense is so overrated and they are not good, this will bring us great betting opportunities when we get elite teams playingon the road vs weaker teams and spreads of less than 7 points-
 
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They say, when you hit the bottom the only place to go is up...

Last season, I went 1-10 in Week One, almost blowing my entire allotted betting-fund. A couple solid futures early on and hard grinding weeks 2-17 put me back back to even and the futures landed me in the money. I know what you mean about needing a wake-up call.

Someone else has it in their signature, "You can't win 'em all, but you can lose 'em all". Good work tonight, let's 'an_horse' this season
 
They say, when you hit the bottom the only place to go is up...

Last season, I went 1-10 in Week One, almost blowing my entire allotted betting-fund. A couple solid futures early on and hard grinding weeks 2-17 put me back back to even and the futures landed me in the money. I know what you mean about needing a wake-up call.

Someone else has it in their signature, "You can't win 'em all, but you can lose 'em all". Good work tonight, let's 'an_horse' this season


Thanks buddy appreciate the good words, also the wake up call was in general life, started working out again like mad to get in tip top shape and overall. I can only go up, and sometimes you get in a rut, but when you get out of it, you come back 100X stronger for sure.
 
Thanks buddy appreciate the good words, also the wake up call was in general life, started working out again like mad to get in tip top shape and overall. I can only go up, and sometimes you get in a rut, but when you get out of it, you come back 100X stronger for sure.

Welcome to the last 6 or so years of my life ....Glad your doing better and thinking positive. We ALL need to fail before we can succeed . Look at every BUST in sports they didnt know how to handle failure and it was usually on the big stage (pro level) . A good life lesson and we take that word failure to strong at times . We give it more meaning then it deserves...:shake:
 
This line should be Dallas -4 - I have been given 3 free points

Didnt expect such a high scoring game, but not surprised by the game. Eagles have a very big O line and a rejuvinated D MCNABB. THE Boys D is not a championship defense--

OVerall I will take the value against the cowboys when they play great teams, but will take them everytime vs average teams. They will score bigtime vs any average teams for sure.
Was this posted after the game?:36_11_6:
 
Nice hit Sammy.

Time to get back in the capping headquarters and start cranking out some winners.
 
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