Monday Night Thread: Pats/Ravens - Someone give me something here

[RambleOn]

I pounded the Patriots last game, and we all know what happened there.

Now, here is another game that the Patriots should clean up in. Will the Patriots try and "prove themselves" and win this one by 30+ as many are predicting, or does it have a chance to be another Eagles game? Baltimore being 1-11 ATS this year doesn't help their cause.

I'm either pounding this, or staying completely away. Someone talk me out of it.

 

[Handykapt]

I'm from Baltimore, the Ravens are dreadful... I'm not sure how they will even score at all. But I also went 2-4 today, so what the hell do I know!

 

[RambleOn]

Baltimore with -11 turnover ratio, Pats with a +16. Pats literally dominate in every category of the game. Without last game, you would even think they crush them. Now, especially since that was a close game, Bellichek should have these guys ready to play.

I guess we don't need to mention that this is the biggest home dog spread in the history of the NFL, right?

 

[Capt. Slap]

It's either Baltimore ML or New England Spread IMO


EDIT - Reason can be found below Sammy Meatballs post (and check out Sammys while you're at it...a very useful side opinion right there :smiley_acbe

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Thank God someone started this thread! Let's nail this bitch.

All teams that have given the Pats games this year have scored on them, any team that has not scored on them has gotten blown out.

I don't expect Ravens to do what Eagles did last week. Pats were flat on D, I dont expect this to happen 2 weeks in a row though.

Ravens are bad on offence and this is the key. Pats do not lose to QB's like Pennington, Boller, Losman, these are the ones that the Pats feast on.

The Ravens of the past have risen to the occasion in this situation and they would never have been given 19 points in the past. I look at one key statistic that I found.

Balty played 3 playoff teams in Pitts and lost 38-7 and SanDiego and lost 32-14, they also lost to Cincy by 14 at home. Lost to Cleveland 33-30

When they lose to a good team they give up in the 30's, I think the Pats will score on these guys, and should at least match what Pitts, Cleve and Sandiego scored possibly hitting 40, now I don't think Balty can match with the scoring. Balty chance at a cover here is a final of 23-10 in that range

 

[Capt. Slap]

I guess I'll elaborate before people quote me and say why...

It's basically the same reason I said take Arizona ML over Oregon or bust...IF Baltimore is going to hang with New England then most likely you're hitting the ML or damn close (say a 3 to 7 point win for New England)...now yes, you would've won if you had +20 and not the ML...BUT, the risk is way worth the reward, I figure the following,

Baltimores chances of winning > Baltimores chances of covering

And having +1100 at better odds than -110 > Having -110 with better odds at +1100


You get what I'm saying?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Hence if you take Baltimore you are really trying to stick within the number, with the offence and the brains of BILLICK I do not see the Ravens scoring much on the Pats. Ravens only chance is to stop the Pats, but this team is a shadow of its self and cannot stop the pass and tight ends. All passing teams have scored at will on the Ravens this year. We are seeing a regression of the defense of the Ravens. I really think that 19 points is not that much, as if the Pats are no 19 points will disappear pretty quick.

 

[Capt. Slap]

^ Yeah I'm mostly figuring that the final score (if the Ravens are to win) is going to have to be in the 13-10, 10-7 range

I could honestly see this defense being able to stop the Pats. Belichek knows it and thats why he's been hyping up Ed Reed all week. If they want to play they will play

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I guess I'll elaborate before people quote me and say why...

It's basically the same reason I said take Arizona ML over Oregon or bust...IF Baltimore is going to hang with New England then most likely you're hitting the ML or damn close (say a 3 to 7 point win for New England)...now yes, you would've won if you had +20 and not the ML...BUT, the risk is way worth the reward, I figure the following,

Baltimores chances of winning > Baltimores chances of covering

And having +1100 at better odds than -110 > Having -110 with better odds at +1100


You get what I'm saying?

I agree if Balty covers it was a close game with a possible upset of the year, or they get beaten good by a focussed Pats team. I just am not sure where the Pats heads are, but on Monday nights Pats are pretty focussed and BILLICK is an idiot who will have no gameplan to confuse the Pats.

I am leaning towards the Pats Ramble ON, I think you just have to sit back and watch and let them disect the Ravens and show them they do not belong on the field.

THe Key in my opinion is the "CINCY FACTOR" if things go wrong for the Ravens early they will quit, just like the Bengals and play the game out, and the Pats will pour it on, just like the Pats did to Bills.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

^ Yeah I'm mostly figuring that the final score (if the Ravens are to win) is going to have to be in the 13-10, 10-7 range

I could honestly see this defense being able to stop the Pats. Belichek knows it and thats why he's been hyping up Ed Reed all week. If they want to play they will play

I am not sure about this as no team has really been able to stop the Pats? What is the lowest point total the Pats scored this year it was 24 at Indy.

No way Pats score 7 or 10 that is wishfull thinking!

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

The Key to this bet is the Defense as to cover a 19 point spread you need to stop the other team. Bills could not do it, the game went way over, the Eagles did it a few times but scored td's of their own and killed clock in the process.

Balty O shouldn't have success like the eagles and Colts did on the Pats. However their D has done good things in the past, but in my opinion I dont think they have faced a team like the Pats.

To cover the 19 the Ravens are gonna have to score Td's to kill clock and put points up cause the Pats will certainly score points, when they spread the offence around they are hard to stop.

 

[betrhalf]

Imo the Pats will cover and then some. My only concern is the weather.The forecast is for 20-30 mph gusting wind. What affect that has on the game is an unknown i don't need.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Imo the Pats will cover and then some. My only concern is the weather.The forecast is for 20-30 mph gusting wind. What affect that has on the game is an unknown i don't need.

Won't affect the Pats, Brady throws tight crisp spirals not floating ducks like Carson Palmer does.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Perhaps the key is if you are betting on the RAVENS you are betting on "HOPE"

- I hope I can stop the Pats
- I hope my offence can score
-I hope my db's can cover Moss

WIth the Pats you are not betting on Hope but rather on probability of Pats playing a good game which should get the win and cover.

Too many unknowns with the Ravens, and for a team thats record and scores indicates it is not very good, no wonder the spread is -19 and I don't think you are going to get a world beaters performance out of them tomorrow night.

 

[RambleOn]

Thanks for the analysis, Sammy.

I'm leaning towards hammering the Pats, too. If I get burned twice, oh wel.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Thanks for the analysis, Sammy.

I'm leaning towards hammering the Pats, too. If I get burned twice, oh wel.

Check out this info buddy!

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Pats team this year had 2 bad performances and what happened is key:

Pats gave up a bunch of points to Miami in 4th qtr of an away game. Bellicheck gave the D shit all week.

Next week they beat Washington 52-7

Pats O underperformed vs the Colts scoring only 24

Next game they scored 56 on Buffalo only allowing 10

Philly just scored 28 points the most the D has allowed all year?

IN following trend the D should play really well and rebound and limit the Ravens tomorrow.

Bellicheck probably ripped the D a new one, and posted the 28 point total by the Eagles in the locker room.

I am thinking now that the Pats win this game 38-7

This is a team that when motivated will win big, and judging by thier performances they will be motivated tomorrow to show everyone that tehy are not beatable.

All I need to know is that Pats beat DALLAS by 21 on the road, that shows me that this team is very good. balty may get a few stops, but that won't matter because their O cannot take advantage. I also think Brady is sick of last week and will score more tomorrow.

 

[RambleOn]

Sounds about right to me. I'm probably going to be laying anywhere from 8-16 units on this one. :shake:

 

[GridironGems]

I think wind will be a factor tomorrow night...

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 46 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR.



20 mph winds are something that can be dealt with...but gusts of 45-50 mph...that's a bit different. Could be tough throwing tomorrow night...under may be the play.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I think wind will be a factor tomorrow night...

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 46 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR.



20 mph winds are something that can be dealt with...but gusts of 45-50 mph...that's a bit different. Could be tough throwing tomorrow night...under may be the play.

This game is not being played in an open field , in a stadium i don't think u get the true effect of a wind. Correct me but I have never seen a game where wind plays a factor in throwing. Brady throws the ball with a super tight spiral and most passes under 12 yards anyway. Very few deep passes over 20 yards.

 

[RambleOn]

We'll have to see how the wind is going at game time. Although the weather predictions are often pretty accurate, they can not tell the future.

 

[RambleOn]

I have decided what I'm probably going to do.

I don't think it is very probable that you'll see a Baltimore and the Over result tomorrow night. For that to happy, Baltimore would have to score 21 points, which is not going to happen.

I'll probably be making plays on NE and the Under, but can't decide if I'll make them even, or weight the NE bet more. That way, I think a split at worst is in order, with a good chance of it going under if NE completely shuts Balty down.

 

[malapeet]

I agree with "if you are betting on Baltimore, you are betting on hope". but here's where i'm worried:

"Pats do not lose to QB's like Pennington, Boller, Losman, these are the ones that the Pats feast on".

What about A.J. Feely? What did he see that no one else saw? If I'm the offensive coordinator for Baltimore, I would have seen the Philly and NE game at least 600 time by now, trying to find the breakdowns. Now I understand NE is the best at changing what they do every week, but last weeks tape is golden.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I agree with "if you are betting on Baltimore, you are betting on hope". but here's where i'm worried:

"Pats do not lose to QB's like Pennington, Boller, Losman, these are the ones that the Pats feast on".

What about A.J. Feely? What did he see that no one else saw? If I'm the offensive coordinator for Baltimore, I would have seen the Philly and NE game at least 600 time by now, trying to find the breakdowns. Now I understand NE is the best at changing what they do every week, but last weeks tape is golden.

Only one problem the O coordinator for Baltimore is Billick, I don't know if his gameplan is in Chineese cause his players do not get it at all. This offence is pedestrian and is led by Kyle I should have been a bowler.

Baltimore has one thing going for them, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Mcalister could be pumped up, but the rest of the Ravens are not that good anymore.

EIther way my friend its not that I am pumping up the Pats at -19, i know for sure I will not bet against the Pats, that will surely save me a few g's at the end of the season.

 

[Capt. Slap]

^ We all know Billick is "supposedly" this great offensive genius...and well he is, he proved that in the past, theres no denying it

I think he can scheme for the Pats well...I think we see an eerily similar MNF game to the one we saw last week between Fins/Steelers...give me +1100 on the ML for the Ravens and the UNDER all day, all night.

 

[malapeet]

Only one problem the O coordinator for Baltimore is Billick, I don't know if his gameplan is in Chineese cause his players do not get it at all. :36_11_6:


You know what.... truth is I'm looking for every excuse to take a home dog on Monday night. Especially one that is getting 19 points.

 

[Matt]

Baltimores chances of winning > Baltimores chances of covering

quote]

This has to be one of the most retarded things I have ever read, even from CSAH. The Raven's are 19+ point underdogs, playing against the undefeated Patriots... obviously, they have a better chance of covering than winning the football game.

 

[STEED]

I'm from Baltimore, the Ravens are dreadful... I'm not sure how they will even score at all. But I also went 2-4 today, so what the hell do I know!

you are right. their offense....well do they have an offense? true words from a hometowner..

:shake:

 

[Pepsiman]

I am not going to touch a side but put a little on the under. You just never know what's going to happen with guts of wind during a game. Do they come through when the Pats have the ball, less against the Ravens? Who the heck knows other than Mother Nature.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

^ We all know Billick is "supposedly" this great offensive genius...and well he is, he proved that in the past, theres no denying it

Billick did not prove anything. Correct me if I am wrong, but Cunningham, Carter, MOss and Robert Smith made Billick look good. Hell I could have been the O coordinator and would i have been labelled a genius.