Monday Night Football (Week Seven)...
- Thread starter emkee
- Start date
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ddk997
Guest
Risking that half point bro for no juice? Risk taker this will come down to who has the ball last... GL bro
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Lareux
Guest
Yeah, buying it to 3 for -120 would be something that should be explored.
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Lareux
Guest
True, but when it's on a key number like 3, and you can buy it to 3 for much less than you would normally have to pay, it's worth it imo. What do you mean by "spread factors into the game less than 20% of the time?" That sounds like you're saying dogs lose but cover only 20% of the time, which sounds kinda low. NFL games do, however, end with a margin of victory of 3 15% of the time, which is the most of any possible margin of victory by a huge amount (the next closest is 7 at 8% of the time).
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Took a look back at the performance of 0-6 teams the past decade and they haven't performed overly bad, with the majority of the nasty ass whippings coming on the road. Tonight the 0-6 Giants are playing at home and surprisingly are still a shot at the NFC East crown if they win out (with a little help along the way of course).
Basically taking the winless desperate home team on extended rest (teams off a Thursday night game are 8-2 ATS on the season) against an equally bad team breaking a new QB into the offense.
Minny with the 2nd worst 'air defense' in the league (335.5 passing yards allowed per game, Broncos 1st with 345.3) and missing their best safety (Harrison Smith) and possibly a few more DB's. Liked that the Giants showed some fight and offensive cohesion late in the Bears game. NYG's run D hasn't been spectacular but it's been their shining light of late and I'll take what I can given AP is the only thing on the Vikes that scares me
Also in a quirky way I think Eli responds after seeing his older brother fail last night.
Basically taking the winless desperate home team on extended rest (teams off a Thursday night game are 8-2 ATS on the season) against an equally bad team breaking a new QB into the offense.
Minny with the 2nd worst 'air defense' in the league (335.5 passing yards allowed per game, Broncos 1st with 345.3) and missing their best safety (Harrison Smith) and possibly a few more DB's. Liked that the Giants showed some fight and offensive cohesion late in the Bears game. NYG's run D hasn't been spectacular but it's been their shining light of late and I'll take what I can given AP is the only thing on the Vikes that scares me
Also in a quirky way I think Eli responds after seeing his older brother fail last night.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Basically meaning you pick the outright winner, you win 80% of the time or thereabouts. Will pull out the exact numbers in my Week 8 thread.
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Lareux
Guest
Yeah, that's what I thought you meant, it just seemed kinda low. I would have figured that dogs lose, but cover the spread more than 1 in 5 times.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Got Lang aboard already, plenty a mush at 'Blankets' and probably have 'Fade Friend' on the train as well. So I'm rolling with bad company tonight, Doggy. Just can't play it any other way based on what I'm seeing.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
I have a thing for 2 and 2.5 point spreads, always have. It's surprising how many times that 'bad number' has come into play for me throughout the years.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Thanks, man.
'Public' took it in the colon this weekend, tonight Vegas gives 'em something to lose next Saturday and Sunday...
That is definitely possible. Right now I have no play and might just lay off til halftime.
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Lareux
Guest
Even if it was -3.5 +100? That was really the reason I thought it may be worth it....you'd have gotten it "on the cheap."
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