Monday Night Football (Week One)...

[emkee]

3-2 (+13.62)

Turned into a pretty decent Sunday with the whole Rodgers 'injury' drama and subsequent comeback.

1 unit on the Packers ML +1400 and 1.15 units on the Packers +16.5 to win a unit.

Posted in-game last night minus the values because I was in a rush as soon as I saw the moon dancer on the sideline looking 'prancey' as the 3rd was starting.

Has set my units up pretty well early. Thanks to Aaron and the league. Very pleased with that read.

New York Jets at Detroit Lions

The play...

Lions -6.5 (2 units)

 

[Retburj13]

GL Em....

new era in deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetriot starts tonite......good or bad

 

[emkee]

Thanks Ret.

New NFL coaches are 65-51-5 ATS in their debut game all-time.

Patricia can't be any worse than this guy...

 

[emkee]

Fat Matt undefeated in home openers going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Average winning margin by the Lions in those games is 11.8 points.

Average winning margin of a non-divisonal Monday night game for a -6 or more home fave is 11.4 points the past 10 years.

Have this game lined by my numbers (ELO and various line-up predictors) right on the number at -6.5, so it agrees with Vegas.

And on principle have to fade a touted rookie QB making his first start on the road in primetime.

Looking at the home dog in the late game.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I see both opposite after much consternation, but I can see why you do. GL Em

 

[Ryno14]

Fat Matt undefeated in home openers going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Average winning margin by the Lions in those games is 11.8 points.

Average winning margin of a non-divisonal Monday night game for a -6 or more home fave is 11.4 points the past 10 years.

Have this game lined by my numbers (ELO and various line-up predictors) right on the number at -6.5, so it agrees with Vegas.

And on principle have to fade a touted rookie QB making his first start on the road in primetime.

Looking at the home dog in the late game.

Interested to hear your Raiders thoughts.

 

[emkee]

Monday night home dogs are 15-5 ATS in Week 1, 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU) in non-divisional encounters.

 

[bluspecva]

Good info

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I would bet Raiders just for that against another team. I have a thing that tells me to play them first half. A couple of dudes at FO are seriously down on them in a bad way. Very old. Mack loss shook team. For as charismatic as chucky is on tv, his locker rooms are never chill. Rams D is sick. Good luck all year bro.

I just think detroit D sucks big D nick

 

[emkee]

Jets D not much better.

But there is nothing clear cut in Week 1, gotta rely on the past to predict the future.

Week 4 onwards is when each teams personality there to see.

Jets had the 31st ranked pass defense last season.

Darnold about to be the youngest QB ever to start a Week 1 game. Gotta fade on principle.

 

[emkee]

Lions 10-1 SU (8-3 ATS) last 11 games as a home fave of 6+ winning by an average of 13.4 points.

Jets a 5-11 team this season.

Peeps saying the Lions shouldn't be laying such a number and maybe they shouldn't but this spread says more about the Jets.

Win or lose, comfortable with my selection being Week 1 and all.

 

[LockthisMonster]

Like the call!

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Emkee.

 

[emkee]

Ugh, real bad but no one saw this one.

Straight fucking ambush.

Week 1 is about expensive lessons and the right or wrong side of luck.

Still looking at the late game but running some Wade Phillips numbers and they don't bode well for Gruden's Raiders.

 

[emkee]

adding...

Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders

The play...

Rams -6 (2 units)

Fuck the trends, gonna ride Wade Phillips and that Rams defense with all that prep time.

No point being cute.

:shake:

Not your dad's NFL when fading rookie QB's was money in the bank. Lions should be relegated to the CFL for this performance.

 

[LockthisMonster]

Yeah, that was atrocious play at home opener.
Health on the night cap!