Monday Night Discussion Thread

C-MAN

C-MAN

Pretty much a regular
Not seeing much discussion about this game, so decided to start a thread. Not much going on in sports tonight, so this shitty game should get a lot of attention.

Initial lean: Over 49.5

Both have poor rush defenses (although neither team has much of a rush offense with Forte out). Both have decent pass defenses, but the strength of both offenses is the pass. Looks like we have a case of strength against strength and weakness against weakness.

Both defenses are in the bottom of the league in points allowed. We have two egotistical gunslinger QB's who will want to show each other up. SD pass defense should suffer a bit with Weddle hobbled.

Thoughts welcome...
 
Everything points to the over. Kinda scares me.


Not much going on in sports?!?? That's disrespectful!
 
Brandon Lang -

Monday Selection...

My 25 Dime selection is a 7-point 2-team teaser (-130) on the Bears and the Over. The current line on this game is +4 1/2 and 49 1/2 in Vegas and offshore. I advise taking the Bears up +11 1/2 and the total down to 42 1/2 and go Over. Be sure to shop around for the best lines available.
 
Bolts a CR play but man are they banged-up.

Faves 2-7 ATS on MNF so far this season.
 
nbafan88 said:
Everything points to the over. Kinda scares me.


Not much going on in sports?!?? That's disrespectful!
Click to expand...


That's funny. No offense bud!! I don't start playing NBA until NFL is over. NHL and football keep me busy this time of year.
 
emkee said:
Brandon Lang -

Monday Selection...

My 25 Dime selection is a 7-point 2-team teaser (-130) on the Bears and the Over. The current line on this game is +4 1/2 and 49 1/2 in Vegas and offshore. I advise taking the Bears up +11 1/2 and the total down to 42 1/2 and go Over. Be sure to shop around for the best lines available.
Click to expand...

A 25 Dime teaser on Chi/Over? SD/Under probably an easy parlay now.
 
In the Chicago games this season (only some of which I've actually watched), they tend to morph to their competition a bit. Take out the Oakland game (which probably should have had more pts scored), and their unders have been vs. Min, Sea and KC. Whereas, their overs have been against Arz, GB and Det - teams with better passing attacks. No doubt that SD falls into the latter category. The only thing that bugs me is that SD has been trying to get Melvin Gordon going and I'm a bit concerned they might be stubborn and give him the ball 20x tonight.
 
Yeah Gordon sucks, a clear whiff on their part and is a fringe talent vs. Gurley who has HOF talent. Anyone could have seen that coming running behind a professional line @ Wisky against Purdue.

This game is tricky. Fangio didn't do well to scheme and stop Rivers last year on Saturday night football with a depleted 49ers defense. They did do well, early, before getting steamrolled in the 2nd half.
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah Gordon sucks, a clear whiff on their part and is a fringe talent vs. Gurley who has HOF talent. Anyone could have seen that coming running behind a professional line @ Wisky against Purdue.
Click to expand...

This has to be a joke right? 8 games into a career already determining this as a whiff. Maybe you should look at Peyton's first 8 games. I think it is comical you bring up Wisky's O line as a statement. Considering that is the very difference in the NFL. San Diego's offensive line is brutal while Gurley is finding holes the size of paved streets.
 
Gordon hits the hole slower than anyone I've seen for a smaller sized power RB. Throw in fumble issues, bad pass protection, and an inability to catch out of the backfield in a pass first league you're not in a good situation. Wasting a 1st rounder on a back who can't immediately have the same impact of Danny Woodhead and that's a whiff. RB's should always hit the ground running in this league so please don't compare it to QBs. Especially ones drafted to the worst teams in the league like Manning was.

Gurley has always been on another level succeeding against top defenses in college while Gordon ran over crap defenses in the b10 last few years. How'd he do against Ohio St last year?

The Chargers had a lot of needs and would surely like a re-do on that pick. When guys like Deon Lewis and Woodhead succeed in this league it's a waste to commit such a high pick to a power back whose not that powerful with a limited skill set. And the Rams haven't historically been a great running team last several years... Gurley is making it happen. Gordon is waiting for his line to pancake the dline and get blocks down field and that won't happen in the NFL.
 
Agree with spek. 1st-2nd round RB's better be really special immediately if the whole league is plug-and-play at that position. If the line is so bad that your high-pick RB can't get out out of the gate, you shouldn't have drafted a running back.
 
1st h & FG Unders now sit at a 38-16 mark for PT games (1st h 21-6, FG 17-10).

3 of 27 PT games have paid out on a 1st h+2nd h+FG Over sweep this season (compared to 8 all-Under sweeps).

Overs have shown up in the 2nd h: 16-11 to date.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
1st h & FG Unders now sit at a 38-16 mark for PT games (1st h 21-6, FG 17-10).

3 of 27 PT games have paid out on a 1st h+2nd h+FG Over sweep this season (compared to 8 all-Under sweeps).
Click to expand...

Guy asked me today what I like tonight, I said let me check with my prime time field goal totals analyst and I'll get back to you.
 
He's not that fast in pads. His predecessors were butterballs.
 
4.4 is nice. So does everyone else at the combine and half the athletes in semi pro football. He lacks decisiveness at the line of scrimmage and it's not a patient position. What running back drafted 1st round ran 210 times for 700 yards and became a stud in the near future?
 
Inspekdah said:
4.4 is nice. So does everyone else at the combine and half the athletes in semi pro football. He lacks decisiveness at the line of scrimmage and it's not a patient position. What running back drafted 1st round ran 210 times for 700 yards and became a stud in the near future?
Click to expand...

My point is after 8 games you are ready to call one Rb a complete whiff, and after 5 games you are ready to call the other one a HOF talent.

Based on your in depth theory analysis, Peyton Hillis should be in the HOF soon!
 
Inspekdah said:
4.4 is nice. So does everyone else at the combine and half the athletes in semi pro football. He lacks decisiveness at the line of scrimmage and it's not a patient position. What running back drafted 1st round ran 210 times for 700 yards and became a stud in the near future?
Click to expand...
Not true
And.Gordon ran a 4.52 my bad
Listen I don't agree with drafting backs in the 1st or 2nd rd. Can always find backs but he is going to be given chances cuz they used a 1st rd pick on him
 
Inspekdah said:
4.4 is nice. So does everyone else at the combine and half the athletes in semi pro football. He lacks decisiveness at the line of scrimmage and it's not a patient position. What running back drafted 1st round ran 210 times for 700 yards and became a stud in the near future?
Click to expand...

Not sure if this is a serious question, but Le'veon Bell's rookie stars weren't much different. When healthy, I consider him amongst the best in the league.
 
That's a great comparison. Although Leveon pushed towards 1300 combined yards and only lost 1 fumble. But still, yeah, 3.5 ypc
 
Bell also had a mentor to show him how to play the Steelers way. Gordon has Woodhead. I like Woodhead and think he plays hard, but they are not remotely close stylistically.
 
Almost have to play the Bolts on principle, have won the stats in their last 6 games but only accounted for 1 win.
 
thanks bc for the post....interesting pt stats....as far as the 25 dime tease of bears/over goes I guess you can make a case that it will at least be a 24-21 type of game, it just seems that if you were to tease the only one that would make sense is the bears under which already is at 56/10...so no teases make sense to me but that is because I can't see a side here or a total....gun to my head I'd take sd -4 and I will wait till game time and hope for a better line
 
booksbestfriend said:
Like Langford too, but it was 60.5 @ -200.
Click to expand...

i hate that shit. makes you wish theyd just bump the number up a bit and make the juice reasonable. i do think someitmes its worth it though. last week i happily laid -165 on Fleener over 2.5 receptions. Langford is going ot get 20 carries today, so as long as he averages 3 per carry that should hit with ease.

I also like Malcolm Floyd overs...think they take a few shots downfield. I saw over 65.5 rec yards...he could definitely get 75% of that on one catch
 
It has come down to -185. I am going to watch it. It will be played, but going ton attempt to get a better number. Going to take a look at Floyd too. He is being offered, both receptions and yardage.
 
Bookmaker has Langford o60.5 -150. Only one I'm considering is Bennett o55.5 rec yds -120, still chewing on it.
 
Bears a bad team taking a fair bit of money on the road tonight.

Really want to back the Bolts, would have been a no doubter if they fired McCoy.

He's the sole reason I can't do it.

GL with your wagers tonight fellas.
 
Think Bears have a big time coaching edge... Vangio as good as it gets and there's been continued improvement under Gase.

Line says it's PK on a neutral with 2/3's on Chargers so it's a strong line respecting the Bears.
 
because the game balls dont have time to be worn in like before this season?

thought it was a ridiculous notion but maybe...
 
Lang's wallet is 25k lighter..... Sucks to suck, you take 7 points and still drop 25k! OUCHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
 
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