Monday Night Discussion (Sammy Meatballs "I love the dog" rant included)

aplous

aplous

Donkey Hater
Texans -3/48

I am in love with the dog tonight. IMO Jones Drew will have his best game of the year. Texans can do some things with the ball, and Jax has struggled with stopping people, but the Texans are a brutal favorite, and Jax should be able to do what they please on offense.

Jags +3 and ML for me.......more to come.

Thoughts?:cheers:
 
I don't think I've passed on a Monday night game since I started betting in the 80's, but I'm tempted here.

But then I looked at the Thursday night matchup and suddenly this game has some appeal. We need to contact the NFL and request that they just do everyone a favor and cancel the Thursday game this week.

I think Jax has all but packed it in for the year, but their last few were against some strong defensive teams. Houston has played extremely well on offense, but keep shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers. Right now I'm leaning to a play on the over, and a small reverse on Houston and the over. This was a shootout and a 3 pt Jax win in Jax when things looked promising at the beginning of the season, tonight I think it's balls in the air and a coin flip on who comes away with a W, over is the way to go.
 
I'd like to play the dog too, but I find it difficult to find solid arguments, because Jax defense has been brutal all season, and the one-two punch running attack somehow isn't what it was last year.
 
This is Houston's 1st primetime game since 2005, when they lost 17-45 at home to Kansas City (in their only other primetime game that season they lost 10-42 to Seattle).
Both of those games were Sunday Nighters - they haven't played on MNF since before 2000 while over the same period Jax has had 7 MNF appearances.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
No clue how anyone can bet this game...
Click to expand...


Degenerecy, boredom, addiction.

Personally I'm liking over & Houston. All but two of Houston's games have gone over the total. Last week it was at Cleveland but at home Cle has held Pitt & Indy to 10 points each & NYG to 14. The other was versus Cincy who couldn't score in a whorehouse. Houston did their part that game putting up 35. Not to mention the fact that every fucking MNF game except maybe one has gone over.
 
Im from Houston....all the young Texans were excited last yr to be on thursday night football against the Broncos with a 31-14 victory and 3 sacks for Mario. They also expect to win as this is the team in the division they have had the most success against. This is like the Texans Super Bowl this year and they said they have a plan to shutdown Garrard running the football which was the killer in the game earlier this season. Goodluck everyone.
 
Like Hou quite a bit here actually. Jacksonville dominated Detroit, but really who hasn't? Take that game out of the picture and this is a very sad team. They failed in their must win games this year at home and have probably packed it in for the season. Hou on the other hand should be motivated to play in prime time against a division foe that they should beat. Both of these teams have underachieved this season, but Jax more so. I believe Hou can still put together a few good games and have something to build on for next season.
 
HOU or no play for me. Still trying to decide. I agree that JAX has packed it in. Very frustrating year for them with all the expectations. Houston will be up for this game. I see a 31-20 type of game. Like the over too.
 
Tough to take the Jags as they really may have quit on the season----

I would think that if the Jags show up they can win, but Houston has all the motivation where as JAGS could mail this one in.

See argument for both sides, but Houston did play well last year vs Denver- I bet on Denver and was impressed by Houston.

jaxonville is not a good football team, they can be beaten, but other teams like Zona and Buffalo also were suposed to be motivated and they choked bigtime--

The answer to the bet is does Houston play loose and well they will win, if they play tight like Zona and Buffalo they will lose pretty much--

Also JAX coming off 2 tough losses to 2 good teams, in reality do the Jags have 3 bad games in a row- if they do they are definitely done for this year---

It is tough for them to get excited about this game other than the fact they would show the national tv audience that they are good.
 
I'll skip my thread & post my play here.

1 unit over 48

.5 to win 2 units reverse
Houston -3.5 & Over 48

Like the over more than the side, but this is still the smallest MNF wager I've made this season.

Lots of talk about the Jags running it & controlling clock, but they didn't do that in the first matchup at home, can't see them trying it on the road. I'll be happy with a shootout and take my chances with the better ofense in Houston getting me the W. Gotta think Jax put some points up too, especially after facing 2 tough defenses in a row. Good luck guys, I think I'll be watching Chuck & Heroes instaed of this.
 
I think whoever has the ball last wins. I dont see either team stopping the run. Maybe tease Jack with Over???
 
Houston past 9 games is 4-5 losing 2 games basically on the last play and coming up short @ Minny and @ Indy losing by 7 and 6 pts in games I believe that ended with Houston being picked off . They always play Jax tight and lost in OT on the road with the miracle collapse loss vs Indy . They played 1 bad game in this stretch vs Balt which early on they had the ball at teh 1 yd line and on 1st down Sage was picked off which I think would have tied the game or given them the lead.....

Jags are 1-4 SU last 5 only winning @ Det but lost at home to Cle and @ Cincy . They also unraveled vs Minny much like Houston did vs Balt . Plus choked away a 14-3 halftime lead vs Tenny .

Neither team has seen a game produce more then 57 points . Jax didnt run the ball that effectively in the 1st meeting and I know the texans have been hurt at LB since then.

While I like the OVER one thing stands out that neither offense is good. They can move the ball but kill themselves with costly turnovers at the worst situations . The defenses are avg to below avg in Houston's case but they rarely get shredded. So we have offenses who self destruct which beens points off the board thanks to turnovers OR FG attempts rather then TDs. The flip is they could also give up short fields with turnovers .....

I cant take an over 48 when neither offense can be counted on but the potential is clearly there..

How bout teasing the total and Houston .....+7 , Over 38 , Under 58 ...Hell I dont even know if online books allow that could do it back in the day with a local but cant recall the last time I entertained that ....

Hard game to figure IMO ...think this game is decided by 3 or 4 points ...:cheers:



 
situation reminds me a bit of the cleve/ny game. obviously i do not equate the jags with the giants but it is a huge deal for a team like houston to have the monday night stage. the talent gap is so small in the nfl that situations like this can drive a team to perform like winners as the browns did that electric monday eve. we all know the browns are not winners (ohio native and browns fan, i can say this). we saw some of this with the saints last week although the stakes where higher, they clearly played their best under the lights. for the texans...this is it. for what ever reason, it seems to me that this is becoming more of a factor than ever (i have allot of sociological theories but won't bore you with them). like the texans tonight. lean to the over as well...houston at their best, which i believe we see, is a team that moves the ball and scores. don't have it in front of me but off the top of my head they are 3 or 4 in ppg. gl fellas...
 
scraps@midnight said:
situation reminds me a bit of the cleve/ny game. obviously i do not equate the jags with the giants but it is a huge deal for a team like houston to have the monday night stage. the talent gap is so small in the nfl that situations like this can drive a team to perform like winners as the browns did that electric monday eve. we all know the browns are not winners (ohio native and browns fan, i can say this). we saw some of this with the saints last week although the stakes where higher, they clearly played their best under the lights. for the texans...this is it. for what ever reason, it seems to me that this is becoming more of a factor than ever (i have allot of sociological theories but won't bore you with them). like the texans tonight. lean to the over as well...houston at their best, which i believe we see, is a team that moves the ball and scores. don't have it in front of me but off the top of my head they are 3 or 4 in ppg. gl fellas...
Click to expand...



This is true what you say my friend, home field can be big especialy late in year vs an opponent who is not trying that hard---

However what about Buffalo and zona? They also choked it up on monday night--

However Houston has no pressure so that is a good spot for them, as they are out of playoffs and can play loose--

I woudl lean HOU because Jags are out and I dont think they decide to play a good game for no reason now- they wanted playoffs, they dont care about beating Houston- the season is over and done for them.
 
It is Houston or nothing here. Fred Taylor says this is the worst team he has played on. This tem has mailed it in. For folks who are just fans of the sport don't know much about Andre Johnson, Super Mario and this is their chance to showcase for the national audience. I think this is a well played game with Houson winning 24-13.
 
Anybody like Hou -1.5 first half?

The "No dog has trailed at HT and won SU for 28 games" streak from BC's saturation thread, scares me a little (off of Houston for the game). Of course, Jax could be trailing by 1, and that wouldn't be good.
 
Andre Johnson is a stud, definitely could be the best receiver in the league---

the man should shred the jags-- walters also is a stud
 
I had planned on playing Houston but for some reason really cant get into them today .

It's MNF right so we know one thingeither lay the points Or take the Dog ML . Thats how it hasplayed out for a long while now on MNF excluding DD chalk .

Reason why I hate fading Jax is the fact they didnt play anywhere near as poor as that Minny games look. They had 2 turnovers quick and were down 14-0 in a blink they fought back but couldnt make a play numerous times in Minnys red zone but this isnt Minnys defense either . Silly trend Jax is 11-1 ATS in week 13 ...

JAx trailed 14-0 quick ...

They had not even 10 rushing attempts all game.....

Part of em says over the other says the offense will self destruct ......

We say how poor Jax is this year and they are but they have been dogged by 3 or more points twice and covered both winning SU away @ Indy and @ Denver ..

Really I cant see how Houston is higher then -1.5 in this game .

I am starting to think that because of the MN factor Houston is overvalued . Other teams have risen on MNF but they tend to be dogs ........

Conclusion :

Jags ML (Level 1 play)
Jags +3.5 -110 (L1)
Under 49 (maybe pay -120 maybe only -110) (Level 1 Play maybe L2 )

Teaser Jags +9 or +9.5 and Under 54.4 or 55

Jax has played better away all year see another close game here like 24-20 Jags ...Maybe they quit and maybe Houston will play its A game at home but they Texans have allowed bad teams to hang around , medicore teams to come back vs them and Cle self destructed like Jax did last week IMO. Making the win away less impressive then it is .....


For the total look at the totals for all the games for each team thsi year .

Hous an over machine has 3 48+ totals but 2 were vs Indy where they exchanged scores and the other last week @ Cle which how did that work out ???

Jags didnt allow many yards to Minny last week but turnovers and field position were killers.....


This just feels so much like the GB and Oak games ....:cheers:



 
Like it NUT agree game should hit under 55 and I think Jags +9 is good---

Houston cannot blow this team out, it is divisioan game, and wins at Indy and Denver is 2 playoff teams, more than Houston has accomplished all year long-

SAGE the rage will self destruct, when has guys like that ever dominated my friend?
 
Glad you see it this way SN. Those are the plays I like tonight. :cheers:

Jags ML
Jags +3.5 -110
Under 49
 
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