Monday NBA Playoffs Discussion

eggnoggin

eggnoggin

Pretty much a regular
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 width=540 bgColor=#cccccc><TBODY><TR><TD class=dataheader width=540 colSpan=10>NBA PLAYOFFS - FIRST ROUND
Monday, April 27th </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datasubheaderleft2 width=35>Time</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=40>Gm #</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=120>Team</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=75>Score</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>Opener</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>Hilton</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>5Dimes</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>ABC Island</TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>04/27
5:05p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>535
536</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> ATLANTA
MIAMI</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>188
4½ </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>186
4½ </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>186
4½ </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>186
4½ </TD></TR><TR class=scores-greybg><TD class=scores-greybg-left>04/27
5:35p</TD><TD class=scores-greybg>537
538</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team> DENVER
NEW ORLEANS</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>193
3 </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>193½
2½ </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>193
2½ </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>193
2½ </TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>04/27
7:35p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>539
540</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> UTAH
LA LAKERS</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>209
12½ </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>211
12½ </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>211
12½ </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>211
12½</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Last edited by a moderator:
hey bet, are you still playing the unders on elimination games?? cleveland/detroit today, didnt it stay under? tomorrow woiuld be lakers/utah under and spurs/dal under and hornets/den under? any specifics you put into them or are they just elimination ones?
 
was under today, but my stats in that thread are based on opening lines and on that basis it was an over.

All the elimination games at present are G 4s & 5s, I'm looking at/for G 6s & 7s.
4s & 5s have a greater tendency for Overs because, logic would suggest, of the significant lopsidedness in competitiveness of the teams involved.

And I'd still look at the individual game in the context of the series involved, ie. 4 Unders prev. 4 games headed into an elim. game, I'd not be keen to back the Under since I'd always suspect a correction to be forthcoming. I always feel best for Unders in elim games when the teams are off an Over result.
 
last 9 games have been won SU by the Fav.

going back the last 3 post seasons for a context, the longest SU winning runs by the Fav in the 1st Round have been
05-06 - 9 games
06-07 - 10 games
07-08 - 8 games
 
Yeah, I missed out..oh well.

BTW, not a big fan of the card tomorrow, tight lines imo.
 
I've got a weird suspicion that the Hawks tie up their series. I'll need to see the refs before I consider putting money on that thought though. With Wade involved I can't handle a guy like Scott Foster calling the game.
 
Miami get their points at home, so imo you like the Hawks, back Over and even if the Hawks lose I'd still think you could win since the NBA surely wants to avoid the 3rd game in 4 involving 1 team scoring fucking nothing (64 pts for the loser of G 1, 78 pts for the loser of G 3).
 
Just not sure that I could ever back an over with those two teams in a game that has so much on the line unless Scott Foster was doing this game. I do agree with what you're saying about Miami getting their points though. 90 seems to be a floor for them at home. Still could see a 93-90 Hawks win producing an under.
 
well, the good news is that total has dropped a couple of points, and the last 14 games are 11-3 to under, so the early 12-3-1 to Over run that started the playoffs has had it's conditioning effect wiped out by recent results.

I think it's too easy to assume Utah & LA resume their Over ways (G's 1 & 2) simply because they're back in LA on top of Utah being 9-0 to Over their last 9 reg. & p.s. road games. Don't like that line move as a winner.

Denver only just lost an Under game that screamed it was going to be a Billups letdown (he shot 3-10). And Nawlins benefitted from a rare, rare Sean Marks 'explosion' (+18 while he was on the floor). That lightening isn't going to strike twice, so if Nawlins keeps up I'd have to think Over there.

So they're my total thoughts.
Over in MIA
Over in NOR
Under in LA
 
HUNTDOG said:
DO you think line goes down or up?
Click to expand...


Honestly, I was scratching my head on this one. I understand the 4.5 in game one and the 5.5 in game two. I don't understand the 5.5 here even though it's a must win. Thats why I bit at that point. If for some reason it goes up I may throw a very small play on the ML as well.
 
nuggets plus 3, bought the .5...
need to see if williams is in for hawks, if not will take heat on the ml..
 
i'm looking at an under with LA in the elimination game theory, but UTAH's road defense is WOEFUL at best.

...i also think the Hawks will win this series so i'm seeing value in +178 i see on MB right now
 
i hate to think about betting on New Orleans, but this Denver team is not a good team and i really think this leaves 2-2.

...not sure i want the 3 though, more interested in the ML
 
GWarner27 said:
i hate to think about betting on New Orleans, but this Denver team is not a good team and i really think this leaves 2-2.

...not sure i want the 3 though, more interested in the ML
Click to expand...


why dont you think they are a good team?
 
TheCashMan said:
why dont you think they are a good team?
Click to expand...

well I watch the Nuggets more than any other team in the NBA because my roommate is from Denver and he's literally nuts about them.

With that said, Chauncey is great and he's made CP3 look like his bitch the entire series prior to last game. The others are hardly good, imo, as Carmelo is just confusing to me at times. The shots he takes are okay with George Karl, but he takes some ridiculously tough shots and rarely do they go in at key moments and that brings me to J.R. Smith. I still don't know if that guy is conscious when he plays, as he would take shots from 1/2-court if he had an opening.

...defensively Birdman is great, but Nene doesn't scare me if he gets a big man that can do anything aside from catching alley-oop's (as that's Chandler's offensive game). I also think if DWest can shoot well then that will be VERY tough on the Nuggs, especially with the HCA helping his shot. Dahntay Jones will guard CP3 when he's on the floor, and so that puts Carmelo on Peja? I think 'Melo is too lazy to fight through screens to get to Peja and that should leave a LOT of open shots for the foreigner.

please correct me if i'm wrong but i have a strong lean to NO
 
GWarner27 said:
well I watch the Nuggets more than any other team in the NBA because my roommate is from Denver and he's literally nuts about them.

With that said, Chauncey is great and he's made CP3 look like his bitch the entire series prior to last game. The others are hardly good, imo, as Carmelo is just confusing to me at times. The shots he takes are okay with George Karl, but he takes some ridiculously tough shots and rarely do they go in at key moments and that brings me to J.R. Smith. I still don't know if that guy is conscious when he plays, as he would take shots from 1/2-court if he had an opening.

...defensively Birdman is great, but Nene doesn't scare me if he gets a big man that can do anything aside from catching alley-oop's (as that's Chandler's offensive game). I also think if DWest can shoot well then that will be VERY tough on the Nuggs, especially with the HCA helping his shot. Dahntay Jones will guard CP3 when he's on the floor, and so that puts Carmelo on Peja? I think 'Melo is too lazy to fight through screens to get to Peja and that should leave a LOT of open shots for the foreigner.

please correct me if i'm wrong but i have a strong lean to NO
Click to expand...

I don't think you are wrong, was just curious of why you thought they were bad...

As far as this matchup. nuggz/NO i think nuggz are better. FWIW, I was on NO. ml on saturday but now on nuggz catching the points.. again, just think they matchup well and i don't like N.O. bench at all.
 
SF_capper said:
39-28,45-24, 33-21
-the refs in the new orleans game for O/U
Click to expand...

got anything in regards to the LAL game? I'm looking for under guys there...


Cashman,

I'm not saying the Hornets are better than Denver, I just think there are way better teams than the Nuggz sitting lower than #2 :shake:
 
GWarner27 said:
got anything in regards to the LAL game? I'm looking for under guys there...


Cashman,

I'm not saying the Hornets are better than Denver, I just think there are way better teams than the Nuggz sitting lower than #2 :shake:
Click to expand...


Grabbing them for you right now. Didn't move so shouldn't be significant.
 
will copy and paste from blankets (not sure if its kool to do so, if not can delete)

Last season there were six home teams in the playoffs that were favored following a game where they won SU as favorites after coming back from a double-digit deficit. These six home teams all won, winning by margins of 30,24,6,17,18, and 30 points. They went 6-0 ATS. The Hornets were involved twice, crushing the Mavericks, 127-103, and blowing out the Spurs, 102-84.

In the 2007 playoffs, there were two home teams that fit this situation, and they both won and covered easily.

In the 2006 playoffs, there were three home teams that fit this situation, and all three were small favorites like the Hornets tonight, and all three won by double digits.

In the 2005 playoffs, there were two home teams that fit this situation, and they won by 25 points and 21 points.

In the 2004 playoffs, there was one home team that fit this situation, and they won by 16 points.

In the 2003 playoffs, there were three more. The results? Romp, romp, and romp.
 
I just cant use trends in the NBA, they are prob the most inconsistent IMO. Since teams vary each year and each game, I dont think it plays any factor what happened a few years ago. Maybe its not my cup of tea, but BOL.

I'm on Nuggets ML and Over.
 
Listened to a bunch of jazz interviews on the radio today fyi. They've packed it in. The tone of their comments was horrible. Lakers by 20+ tonight. I've played the -12 and if the Lakers are up 9-15 at half I'll probably add some more.
 
Over or Under on that Jazz game? If you think they packed it in, are you thinking a 100-80 game or a 118-102 game?
 
spiderman said:
Over or Under on that Jazz game? If you think they packed it in, are you thinking a 100-80 game or a 118-102 game?
Click to expand...

I say over mainly because they'll be playing extremely loose having nothing to lose. Might be worth waiting until the 2nd half to play the over as long as things don't get out of hand in the 1st half. You don't want all of the Lakers subs in for the entire 4th quarter, but if it's under 10 at half I'd say the 2nd half will provide a nice betting opportunity. I'm on the game over either way.
 
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