Monday NBA Discussion

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 width=540 bgColor=#cccccc><TBODY><TR><TD class=dataheader width=540 colSpan=10>NBA
Monday, February 23rd</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datasubheaderleft2 width=35>Time</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=40>Gm #</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=120>Team</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=75>Score</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>Opener</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>Hilton</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>5Dimes</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>ABC Island</TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>02/23
4:35p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>501
502</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> INDIANA
NEW YORK</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>225
6
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-greybg><TD class=scores-greybg-left>02/23
4:35p</TD><TD class=scores-greybg>503
504</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team> PHILADELPHIA
NEW JERSEY</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>1
189½
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>02/23
6:05p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>505
506</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> ATLANTA
UTAH</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>205
7
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-greybg><TD class=scores-greybg-left>02/23
6:05p</TD><TD class=scores-greybg>507
508</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team> BOSTON
DENVER</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
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</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>02/23
7:05p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>509
510</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> NEW ORLEANS
SACRAMENTO</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
203
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-greybg><TD class=scores-greybg-left>02/23
7:35p</TD><TD class=scores-greybg>511
512</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team> GOLDEN STATE
LA CLIPPERS</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
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oh man I thought I was tripping or something. Don't know how you did that but it's awesome. :36_11_6:
 
Likely to play NJ. NJ is 5-2 last 7 against this team. NJ is on 5 game losing streak that was primarily due to playing 4 teams outside their weight class. This is a team they can unload against. While Philadelphia seems to go over 500 and then always tumble down. Suspect their losing streak will not break until they get below 500. Plus its not a negative to have more rest than your opponent when he is struggling.
 
Knicks look interesting when you see how Indy has performed lately when they win the front end as a home pup then travel for the back end . Ind owns them winning 8 of 10 SU and ATS so I guess winner covers the spread theoritically ...Pacers also playing 5th game since break...under ..??

The Philly is game is tough two slumping teams and philly lost twice now at home the Nets ....

Probably look at Atlanta as one would expect they would have been a tad higher seems like they are baiting Utah money IMO. Jazz had some good situational angles last few games as well to help boost them..

Rough spot for NOH playing 5th in 7 and Sac looked okay before the Dallas beatdown . Probably most interested in the 1st Half Sac play at the moment .....Over 203 seems extremely inviting..Paul and West didnt have a break and Peja is a guy who needs his rest as well so him playing 5 in 7 not an asset in theory....

GSW play absloutely no defense and depending on who LAC has and expecting a silly -10 line then LAC would interest me...
:cheers:
 
Knicks look interesting when you see how Indy has performed lately when they win the front end as a home pup then travel for the back end . Ind owns them winning 8 of 10 SU and ATS so I guess winner covers the spread theoritically ...Pacers also playing 5th game since break...under ..??

The Philly is game is tough two slumping teams and philly lost twice now at home the Nets ....

Probably look at Atlanta as one would expect they would have been a tad higher seems like they are baiting Utah money IMO. Jazz had some good situational angles last few games as well to help boost them..

Rough spot for NOH playing 5th in 7 and Sac looked okay before the Dallas beatdown . Probably most interested in the 1st Half Sac play at the moment .....Over 203 seems extremely inviting..Paul and West didnt have a break and Peja is a guy who needs his rest as well so him playing 5 in 7 not an asset in theory....

GSW play absloutely no defense and depending on who LAC has and expecting a silly -10 line then LAC would interest me...
:cheers:

Couldn't agree more about the Hawks. Boozer's first game as well as the hangover from the Miller death. Jazz going to go 5-0 ATS on the homestand? Will likely play the Hawks with the points and ML.
 
pretty uninteresting card

have played Utah -7. Utah on a roll at home with a nice homestand schedule with rest between games. SLC obviously a tough place to play, esp for a sub-.500 road team. Line makes little sense to me as Utah was just -7.5/8 to New Orleans. I know that NO was off doub OT and Utah would probably play hearts out for their owner, but value wise, Atlanta is not ever better than New Orleans- even in that spot. Atlanta still in middle of road trip and don't see any eason to expect some magnificant effort by them tonight. JP may be right about the hangover for Utah, but I'll take my chances. Watching Utah post-game it is clear that there is more than just basketball going thru that team's minds, so a hangover is possible. Just a 1 unit bet on Utah though, taking the value and liking it.

other interest is Denver and NY

NY just to fade Indi on the road. NY still making a playoff push and essentially need this game. Harrington always shows vs former teams

Denver is a decent situational spot. ended their road trip with 2 losses, and finally get home to host the champs. Boston off proving to themselves and the world that they're still a force, and now play b2b in mile high. I hate that Kmart and Nene may miss and I may just not play it if they both miss. Mostly Nene will make up my mind, and its very likely he misses. Thoughts on this one guys?

Philly/Jersey I can see an argument for both sides. Philly with revenge off blowing their lead at home last month to these guys in the 4th and getting booed at home. Both teams pretty desperate for a W. likely a pass for me unless something changes my mind
 
lmfao...I went straight to the mod forum to see WTF was up before I even opened the thread. I was thinking how in the hell did this cat get a fifteenth second chance. Woulda been one hell of an apology letter I'm sure.


Well done BC.
 
Has anyone checked out Indiana's schedule? Am I reading this right?

AWAY-HOME-AWAY-HOME-AWAY-HOME-AWAY

This is bizarre. They played in Minnesota. Then back to Indiana. Now they have to fly up to NY. Then right back down to Indiana. Then right back up to the northeast, for Boston. Then right back home to Indiana. Then out west to Colorado.

Jesus WTF? Anyway, no way I can see laying 6 with the Knicks. Indiana has played 2 solid games in a row without Granger and they have home revenge. No need to lay the 6 in this spot with the Knicks on a B2B from Canada. Knicks might eclipse the number but it's not soft. No value.
 
SF- Just keep in mind that Boston has home revenge here. Very rare. This is probably a circled game.
 
The Clippers
- are 10-2 to Over in the 2nd game of b2bs this season.
- are 7-0 to Over off their last 7 Under results
- are 19-7 to Over their last 26 games (73.0% Over rate)

- are 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 SU losses
- last 11 losses have been by 9+ points (0-11 ATS)

Golden State
- is 1-3 ATS on the road since Monta Ellis returned from injury.
- has not covered 2 straight games as a Fav this season
- is 8-2 to Over their last 10 games that Belinelli has played in (as opposed to 8-2 to Under their last 10 games he's missed)
 
gaining some interest in New Orleans. Need this game to avoid 0-3 minitrip and move to 8th in the west. Don't like the line, want at least 7.. SO far just utah -7 and NY -6 for a unit apiece. May add New Orleans if I can get a better line
 
Don't you ever sleep?

I got a messed up ass sleep schedule. right now 6:20 AM here. Been in bed since 12, but my bed is almost my desk since its a king and I just lay all my books and laptop on it. Don't have class til Tuesday so my brilliant plan is to sleep probably soonish say 7, wake up around 4 and go to sleep by 1AM before class on Tuesday. bleh I'm a bum
 
wow wtf. I cannot believe Denver opened as a dog. Linesmakers are getting very very confused. HOW THE FUCK is Denver 4 points worse than Phoenix without Amare?!
 
Leans

Indy/Knicks Over 224.5 Both love to push the ball

Philly will knock off the Nets. They usually split the season meetings and I believe the Nets have won 2 this year. 6ers are the motivated team tonight.

Philly/NJ Under 190.5 I'm pretty sure this game will stay below 180.

That's how I see 'em. What say you guys?
 
oh and GS is gonna be a public fav 2m at only -4. Monta being out helps GS as he's been eating balls since his return, but don't forget that randolph is back, and possibly camby and thornton. won't be surprised to see GS lose str8 up :(

looks like kamrt is probable and nene is doubtful. All that matters to me is that KG is out and Denver is getting points at home. I see the home revenge in november, and of course it worries me, but not too much. KG is the intensity of the team, likely the one that reminds them of the revenge, the tough guy inside that would seek vengeance- the mental leader of the squad that makes Boston amazingly up for seemingly every game. Without him, I can easily see Boston content with the victory yesterday. I'm gonna play Denver, just choosing unit size
 
wow wtf. I cannot believe Denver opened as a dog. Linesmakers are getting very very confused. HOW THE FUCK is Denver 4 points worse than Phoenix without Amare?!

Blowing the doors off Phoenix sent a message to the linesmakers apparently.
 
Likely to play NJ. NJ is 5-2 last 7 against this team. NJ is on 5 game losing streak that was primarily due to playing 4 teams outside their weight class. This is a team they can unload against. While Philadelphia seems to go over 500 and then always tumble down. Suspect their losing streak will not break until they get below 500. Plus its not a negative to have more rest than your opponent when he is struggling.

I agree with you here on the profile of NJN but still likely to just pass on this game. Outside of Philly and ATL dont think NJ has any quality wins since their suprising good start at the beginning of the season. Think after the upset @ Philly on 12/6 they were actually 11-8 but since then 13-24 and injuries have played a role certainly . Those 13 wins include @ Tor , smoked Dallas , @ Indy by 1 , @ Charlotte in OT , Atlanta by 2 in OT , Memphis , Sac , OKC by 4 in OT , @ Memphis , @ Phillly by 2 , Milw , @ Wash , Denver in a rare blowout but they were shorthanded and tired...so of the 13 wins they had 3 in Overtime and another 2 by a bucket or less....plus 2 solid wins vs Dallas and Denver ...

They have defeated the Sixers twice already this season but forget payback for a second because the Philly offense has been struggling for weeks as well ....Since the break Philly hasnt looked that good but not as bad as the 0-3 suggests either IMO. They didnt play well @ Indy but rallied in the 2nd Half and that carried over to a fast start vs Denver which the game changed with Andre Miller's injury . Then @ Miami they were in see saw battle with them up 3 with about 2 minutes to go and ultimately lost by 6 ...all solid teams

Tough for me to decide Philly has been losing but at least played decent ball and is the better team but also has the motivating factor of losing twice at home to NJN...

As you said and I agree its the type of team NJ can beat because while solid they are essentially just a 500 to slightily better team ...

Would probably prefer NJN 1st Half and Philly after the break...:cheers:
 
Blowing the doors off Phoenix sent a message to the linesmakers apparently.

Like Denver as well but not suprised by the line. Really one could only expect DEN to be about -2 here and remember the Suns game opened a PK and was bet up . Also factoring in is the fact DEN just look as small road chalk to Chi and Milw the past 2 games....which they were so called Public bets so the distaste is there probably in their opinion for DEN in the betting world....

:cheers:
 
Interested in :

Philly @ NJN :
As I posted previously just hard to buy into NJN IMO . Both teams are equally in need of a WIN here but Philly is a solid team and NJN 13-24 in its last 37(since 1st win @ Philly) is looking more like the team it expected to be in the preseason. NJN though has had success against ATL and Philly this season somthing like 5-1 . Last meeting was interesting as NJN was 8 pt dogs and down 10 to start the 4th Quarter . Vince gets hurt and hobbles to the bench with 10 to play and NJN down 12 . Philly in the midst of a hot streak winners in 10 of 12 maybe thought the game was over (mentally) . This was when Elton Brand had returned off the bench and was working himself back . Somehow Philly managed to finish 2-22 from the floor after VC's injury ! Outscored in the 4th Q 20-8 ! Lose 85-83 . So far the one thing that sticks out is Philly struggles offensively in the 2 home games vs NJN. For NJN that rally might have sparked the mini 4 game win streak that followed, although the wins were MILW w/o Bogut and Redd , @ Wash w/o Butler or Blatche , and Denver who was battling some injuries and playing a 4th in 5 days with a win vs SA , tough grinding win @ Charlotte , easy win @ Wash , then @ NJN...

For as much as Philly worries about its defense and preaches defense only 2 road games have seen them allow less then 92 pts and one was a win where they allowed 91 @ Det the other was a dd loss @ Cle which they allowed 88. So chances are even in a losing cause the Nets get to the low 90s. With NJN defense struggling despite its previous success against Philly have to expect the Sixers finally do something offensively vs them ..no more 83 or 84 pt efforts.. Still Philly has not exactly been good offensively on the road ...

Would guess we see something like 96-93 worst case which if the total was still 189.5 would probably be a play . That slight uptick to 191-192 makes it tough to play an over IMO but not until you get to the HIGH 190s would I see value in an UNDER .

Philly really cant afford to lose here but that doesnt mean much . Still if I have to pick here its the Sixers ML with leans to NJN 1st Half and Philly 2nd Half ....

Indy @ NYK :
Hard to see why I wouldnt play NYK here although would have like -5 rather then 6 or -6.5 and leaning UNDER . Pacers were an OVER machine for along while but are now 11-8 UNDER past 19 plus missing Granger and Dunleavy ..

Pacers also stuck somewhat shorthanded(Foster in addition to the above mentioned did return yesterday for 20 minutes) playing 5th game since the break in essentially 7 days although it comes after the AS layoff . Worse is they played home , then 2 away , then back home for yesterday and now back on the road here . Playing B2Bs recently they defeated Philly at home then lost @ Charlotte SU and ATS , before the break beat CLE by 1 as home pups then lost @ Indy catching 5 points , this was not a B2B but they beat ORL as home pups then 1 day later lost @ Wash laying 4 ...earlier in the season they won as home pups to LAL and then lost as 14 pt dogs @ Boston the next day . So far in B2B situations were they won the opening game they lost the next game 4 of 5 occassions . The only double wins were @ NYK then hosting Sac.

Indy is just 7-22 away this season . In addition to the absent players Daniels has been playing excellent but also said @ Minny after the long layoff conditioning is an issue for him at the moment.

The Pacers improved to 7-22 on the road, thanks in part to Daniels, who is still getting back into shape.
"When you've been out that long with a bad back, it's tough to condition," O'Brien said, "but he played well."

Since Granger went down the offense has been okay IMO they did score alot @ Minny but that was also 104 -98 with about 35 seconds left and then the FT game took over and if you havent noticed since Jefferson went down Minny is playing ridiculously high scoring games ..this was the only game they cracked 100 ...

Since the break NYK is taking a TON of threes so far think 28 and 39 in the home games and 22 yesterday while only cracking 20 FTs attempts (21) vs SAS and that was OT . NY is a streaking team from 3 pt land and their higher scorig games come from alot FT attempts and/or success from 3 pt land...

After losing at home to Indy the NYK fell to 3-5 as home chalk but have since won the past 5 in that role ...Tor , Houston , Memphis , Chi and Washington which isnt really impressive ....but 4-4 as home pups is sort of when they have wins vs Boston , Pho and SAS in OT plus ATL vs losses against Philly , Cle , Boston and LAL ...so they are 9-4 at home ATS since the close loss to Indy ...

Harrington plays his former team while Duhon and Jack are cousins.

Anyway expect NYK to win here and since the winner SU is 10-0 last 10 meetings ATS take my chances the pts again dont come into play . However Indy was the winner 8 times in that stretch. Huge key is the play of NYK forwards vs Indy . Harrington , Lee and Chandler ...

As for the total since the 1/2 meeting only LAL and WASH cracked 110 + points vs them both exceeding 120. Otherwise the only teams above 107pts were Boston 110 in a loss and Pho 109 in a win ..Home NYK wins pts allowed :
97 , 107 OT , 104 , 98 , 88 , 109 , 88 , 122 wiz , 88 , 92 , 125 GSW , 117 wiz , 106 , 99 , 98 , 115 heat in the opener but 40 in the 4th Q and 70 after the half.

So looking UNDER 225 but maybe more INDY TT Under ....

ATL @ Utah :
More of a play here for me on the line then anything and that was before Jpicks alerted me that Boozer was indeed returning here . One thing about players returning from injury especially long layoffs chances are the 1st game is more of a getting their comfort back game then anything ...

Hawks have been medicore at best on this trip but thought they played okay @ Portland . Utah is off high profile wins vs NOH and Boston but lets remember they also rallied vs Boston once KG went out and faced NOH playing off a tough OT game @ LAL the day before and 3rd in 4 days as well all while Utah was HOME since prebreak defeating LAL...

Kinda expected 8 or 8.5 here w/o Boozer and with him in of course would think higher so the 7 stuck out immediately ...remember they were -7 vs NOH and wouldnt really think of NOH and ATL as equal although its close ...

Also looking at the over because I still expect Utah around 105 points and well if ATL covers as I expect they have to be within 7 pts which means at least 98 for them . Already we have 203 pts sort of worst case scenario in my thinking and around 205-206 total ...

Mix in UTAH owning ATL and Miller passing simply no reason to open this soft other IMO to attract Utah money ...

Boston @ Denver :
Not much to say here . DENVER is in a must win spot will have Kenyon but probably not Nene here . Situationally not a good spot for DEN since they are returning home from a long trip with no rest but guess the AS break in the middle sort of changes that some. Boston getting a huge scheduling break when it was basically the last team to play after the break and now its just its 3rd game . Nuggs played 8 straight away with 5 pre break and 3 after . Den is good at avoiding streaks with just 1 three game losing streak all season.

Big thing with BOS is depth as Ray and Pierce both had to play 40 minutes yesterday (2 days off though) as each particpated in AS weekend. Perkins was terrible yesterday something like 4 fouls and 4 turnovers with 3 missed FTs in about 15 minutes ...so outside of Rondo who looked great and is solid the offense has few options .

Interesting game which I lean DEN but not sure I play either. Leaning UNDER because I dont think either team wants to run or has enough weapons on offense . Would look at 3rd and 4th Quarter Unders ...BOSTON never wins @ Denver but also has payback for an earlier home loss so w/o KG huge motivation IMO on their side to avenge the home loss but also win in a place it hasnt wihout a key superstar playing ..

Only problem playing the total is EXPECTED a higher number but like yesterday when they hung a 225 they were essentially telling you what was going to happen and think the same today .....dont expect DEN to break 100 nor do I Boston..

Late games didnt check yet but LAC gets at least Randolph back and this team is trying IMO as it easily could have folded after the 1st Quarter yesterday it is simply out manned so many nights . The starting lineup outside of the backcourt yesterday at Portland was a cruel JOKE ....Think 228 though is way to high for the total...

While in SAC looking at the NOH on the road kinda shcked how few games surpassed this 203 total on the road for them. Its rare for them to be at 205 ++ andjust 1 of the past 9 away games were excluding LAL which went to OT . WHich guess what it was that OVER machine @MINNESOTA ! So again tempered on the total..Looking at Sac 1st Half possibly or maybe game ...also 5th in 7 spot for NOH so more an dmore looking at SAC ...although with the toatl take away Chandler in the middle and looking at the new SAC lineup hard to not see points in this game ....

:cheers:





























 
what in the hell is up with this golden state line.

clipps only catching 4 is very hard to comprehend
 
ah nm, if Z Bo is back like Nut says, that makes a bit more sense of it


Birdman in for Nene is very beneficial for the under. Like denver as well. JR hasn't gone off in a while so he's due and chauncey should be able to keep rondo in check, at least compared with yesterdays effort by the suns....i know the C's aren't one of those teams that takes games off but if denver comes out hot i could see the nuggz building a cushion and the C's being ok with giving this one up. They got clipps next so even with a loss they'll be 4-2 on the trip, which considering the competition and KG goin down, is still very impressive.
 
Have played Knicks as hopefully a easy pick. First, it is not a revenge game fo Indiana. They are now 8-2 last 10 against the Knicks. Revenge only runs 1 way here and both teams know it. But on the topic of revenge the next 3 teams Indiana plays qualify as revenge games so situationally things point clearly to the Knicks. Who have covered 5 straight at home as 8 or less favorites. Would also point out that the last 10 times these teams have played the side that has won has covered. Indiana has covered 2 in a row which starts out putting them in a to avoid group. These are facts. Facts arewhat we handicap with. back later GL
 
Regarding the Denver game, I agree with a play on Denver if Martin is playing and depending on price maybe if he is not. I see a small edge to Denver in the big 2's. I think Denver is actually deeper. Think Balkman and Linas show up here but you probably do need Martin in the mix as Rondo probably is a legitimate major player. Denver simply matches up well with Boston. Boston never had the slightest problem yesterday with a joke team. The only team that seems to own Denver this year is LA and the b-b should weigh more on the older team.
I think Atlanta at Utah is a good game to wait till half time on. Atlanta has had 2 days off to contemplate their problems. They are not a bad team. They have failed to cover 3 in a row and in utah's last 2 home games, they were given a game by the gods when Garnett left and were handed another one when the Hornets dropped in, in a nightmare spot. Now they are facing a real team that is not in a bad spot at the same time they are making adjustments for Carlos. Just not sure any position for either side is justified here.
 
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Small bets on kings plus 4.5 first half and plus 2 second quarter. At half time if this pattern works will be thinking Hornets in the third and possibly kings in the fourth.
 
Great thread today fellas. Rolling with the favs today. KNicks, Sixers, played the hawks 1st half and will play utah 2nd half if the total game line is less than 5. Still pondering the Nuggets.
 
Played under 100.5 first half in Denver. Boston has clearly come out Slow in their b-b road games and inthe b-b situation at home with Houston so did Denver.
Actually a little funny. The books are so used to shading first half to over that they did it here. 101 at the greek on a 197.5 total but that is not what Boston does. they step up scoring in the second half.
 
Jazz are back. With Millsap playing with the 2nd unit it makes them that much more dangerous. Opens things up for Korver outside when they help defensively on Paul. Going to be dangerous to bet against down the stretch. They'll surely be looking to get to the 6 seed to avoid the Lakers and Spurs in the first round.
 
Anyone else just sitting in awe of the Boston Celtics?

Cuz I am.
 
Rondo is so fun to watch. He does it all. Best rebounding PG in the league. Other PG get rebounds but they are always lazy defensive rebounds that bigs let them get. Rondo attacks. So cool.
 
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