nropp11
Vice-President of Fondy Fanclub
Plays are on a 1-3 unit basis for the year, probably an occasional higher than that, but not much. Going to try and limit plays this year, so we’ll see how it shakes out. I have about 4 books set up for bases b/c finding the key # is important in a ML sport. Therefore, the # I post is based on an average of what I play at various books. Will try to touch base on each game for each day, and will usually post on the night prior to game day but sometimes it just isn’t possible with work, life, wife, etc... Now that that’s been established, let’s play ball.
0-0, +0.00
The Plays:
You’ll probably hear this quite a bit this year from me, but I’m a guy who bets on value. If I can get Brandon Webb at close to even money coming off a runner-up Cy Young year, and the year before that actually winning the Cy Young, I’ll probably at least delve into it. Both pitchers in this matchup will be making their third opening day start. I’m going to give Webb an advantage here though, being from around the Cincy area, and he’ll have quite a few family and friends in attendance for this one as well. "It'll probably never happen again, to work out that way that Opening Day will be there and me be the starting pitcher there," said Webb. "To be that close to home and for that to be my home team and grew up watching those guys, and the tradition that they have with Opening Day always, it's going to be pretty special, because I'm going to have a ton of family there again." Keep in mind, pitching is only a portion of the game. When you look at the Reds, you think of power hitters, teams that rely on the longball to win games. If you take a look at the Reds, a great majority of their success over the past few seasons relies on the homerun and whether or not they were able to muster the ball out of the park to produce runs. Webb rarely gives up the homerun. Having giving up a homerun in every 19 innings last year was a solid mark. A stat that has gotten better the last three years he’s taken the mound. Weather looks like light rain, not necessarily an advantage for pitcher/hitter here, but I’m going to take the more proven squad and fading Dusty Baker is not always a bad thing as I’ve come to figure out as a Cubs fan. Not only that, but thoughts coming out of Arizona in the post-season had every game in April as important as later games in the year b/c they’re starting their division schedule straight outta the gates (think they have 22 division games in April). How do you not like the Nationals, who have already gone through opening day festivities, and although have traveled, actually have one day of playing under their belt? A lot of hype has been made about Phily in the post-season, and I might be stretching it a bit, but how much did Rowand mean to this team? He was the heart and sole of the White Sox which he led to the World title, and once he left, they went downhill. Can we expect the same of the Phillies this year? They’ve come out and said they’re going to win 100 games this year. Ok? Let’s put a –200 price tag on a team who’s strutting out a pitcher who was a closer last year and a team who brings in a closer that isn’t even 100% yet this year. I’ll take my chances with the dog and my belief that the game of baseball is about 80% mental and I’d rather be on the team that has played a game already rather than the team w/ the pressure that it’s going to win 100 games this year on day 1 of the season. I’ve been a big proponent of fading the Cardinals against lefties in certain spots over the course of the past two seasons, so I might as well try it out again. They started hitting lefties quite a bit towards the end of last year, but that’s b/c managers were purposely scheduling lefties against em and they were constantly seeing it day in and day out. Cardinals lost Eckstein, which was a big loss in my opinion. Not much more to explain other than the fact that I’m fading Wainright, and I have a lefty on the other side of the hill.
Other thoughts:
Imagine that, a Yankees squad overpriced on opening day. If I see Roy Halladay at +150ish the rest of the season, I’d be shocked. Watch out for the Royals this year. Really don’t get how any team on opening day is –200 over anybody. Having set lines on public perception is the reason, and with the offensive powerhouses that Detroit pulled in over the offseason is the reason why, but it’s going to take a while for some of these hitters to find a groove and without a bullpen or a proven closer, I’m not sure why anyone would risk a –200 this early in the season. Is their value on the Tigers? No. Is their value on the Royals? Yes. It’s not like Verlanders has much more than a fastball, so I just don’t understand. I’m holding off for now. Watch out for the Royals this year. Really don’t get how any team on opening day is –200 over anybody. Having set lines on public perception is the reason, and with the offensive powerhouses that Detroit pulled in over the offseason is the reason why, but it’s going to take a while for some of these hitters to find a groove and without a bullpen or a proven closer, I’m not sure why anyone would risk a –200 this early in the season. Is their value on the Tigers? No. Is their value on the Royals? Yes. It’s not like Verlanders has much more than a fastball, so I just don’t understand. I’m holding off for now. I would like to play Zambrano at a cheap price here, but I think they’re better spots available in the coming days as there is a lot of pressure on opening day for Big Z and the Cubs here. Just listening to Zambrano over the past few weeks you have seen a different approach and he’s one of the better pitchers in the game when the mental aspect is intact. That’s all it is with him, is mentality. Sheets is a decent pitcher, but he’s not proven. Has he won more than 12 games in any year? Add in the fact that the Brewers are a dominant lineup on the right side of things, and Prince hits lefties better than righties, I think the Cubs have a good shot at winning game 1. Back to the better spots in the coming days, with no Gallardo or Capuano, the Cubs have a distinct advantage probably in games 2 and 3, which I hope to catch a –1 at a decent price, maybe an even better price if the Cubbies drop this game today. Not a single ounce of interest in Rays/Orioles until one or the other shows me a bit. Not an ounce of interest in the WhiteSox/Tribe but I do think the White Sox will shock some people this year. Indians won 96 games last year and some of their best players had down years. Zito/Penny a great matchup, but not interested. Dodgers will have one of the best core groups of pitchers in June when they bring up some talented pitching from the minors, I can’t remember his name at the moment, but he’s a stud and I’ll leave it at that. No interest in Seattle/Texas, although the value seems to lie on the Rangers after that poor spring by Bedard. Santana at –200, probably right, no value either way. Halos/Twins dead on the money, not interested in either side. Twins trot out Livan Hernandez as the Ace, yikes! No interest in Snell/Glavine, but the under seems about 1 run to high. No interest in fading Peavy at home ever.
Leaves me with 3 pups on opening day:
Diamondbacks $100 to win $101 (ML +101)
Diamondbacks $100 to win $165 (-1.5 +165)
Rockies $100 to win $106 (ML +106)
Rockies $100 to win $164 (-1.5 +164)
Nationals $115 to win $100 (+1.5 –115)
GL
0-0, +0.00
The Plays:
You’ll probably hear this quite a bit this year from me, but I’m a guy who bets on value. If I can get Brandon Webb at close to even money coming off a runner-up Cy Young year, and the year before that actually winning the Cy Young, I’ll probably at least delve into it. Both pitchers in this matchup will be making their third opening day start. I’m going to give Webb an advantage here though, being from around the Cincy area, and he’ll have quite a few family and friends in attendance for this one as well. "It'll probably never happen again, to work out that way that Opening Day will be there and me be the starting pitcher there," said Webb. "To be that close to home and for that to be my home team and grew up watching those guys, and the tradition that they have with Opening Day always, it's going to be pretty special, because I'm going to have a ton of family there again." Keep in mind, pitching is only a portion of the game. When you look at the Reds, you think of power hitters, teams that rely on the longball to win games. If you take a look at the Reds, a great majority of their success over the past few seasons relies on the homerun and whether or not they were able to muster the ball out of the park to produce runs. Webb rarely gives up the homerun. Having giving up a homerun in every 19 innings last year was a solid mark. A stat that has gotten better the last three years he’s taken the mound. Weather looks like light rain, not necessarily an advantage for pitcher/hitter here, but I’m going to take the more proven squad and fading Dusty Baker is not always a bad thing as I’ve come to figure out as a Cubs fan. Not only that, but thoughts coming out of Arizona in the post-season had every game in April as important as later games in the year b/c they’re starting their division schedule straight outta the gates (think they have 22 division games in April). How do you not like the Nationals, who have already gone through opening day festivities, and although have traveled, actually have one day of playing under their belt? A lot of hype has been made about Phily in the post-season, and I might be stretching it a bit, but how much did Rowand mean to this team? He was the heart and sole of the White Sox which he led to the World title, and once he left, they went downhill. Can we expect the same of the Phillies this year? They’ve come out and said they’re going to win 100 games this year. Ok? Let’s put a –200 price tag on a team who’s strutting out a pitcher who was a closer last year and a team who brings in a closer that isn’t even 100% yet this year. I’ll take my chances with the dog and my belief that the game of baseball is about 80% mental and I’d rather be on the team that has played a game already rather than the team w/ the pressure that it’s going to win 100 games this year on day 1 of the season. I’ve been a big proponent of fading the Cardinals against lefties in certain spots over the course of the past two seasons, so I might as well try it out again. They started hitting lefties quite a bit towards the end of last year, but that’s b/c managers were purposely scheduling lefties against em and they were constantly seeing it day in and day out. Cardinals lost Eckstein, which was a big loss in my opinion. Not much more to explain other than the fact that I’m fading Wainright, and I have a lefty on the other side of the hill.
Other thoughts:
Imagine that, a Yankees squad overpriced on opening day. If I see Roy Halladay at +150ish the rest of the season, I’d be shocked. Watch out for the Royals this year. Really don’t get how any team on opening day is –200 over anybody. Having set lines on public perception is the reason, and with the offensive powerhouses that Detroit pulled in over the offseason is the reason why, but it’s going to take a while for some of these hitters to find a groove and without a bullpen or a proven closer, I’m not sure why anyone would risk a –200 this early in the season. Is their value on the Tigers? No. Is their value on the Royals? Yes. It’s not like Verlanders has much more than a fastball, so I just don’t understand. I’m holding off for now. Watch out for the Royals this year. Really don’t get how any team on opening day is –200 over anybody. Having set lines on public perception is the reason, and with the offensive powerhouses that Detroit pulled in over the offseason is the reason why, but it’s going to take a while for some of these hitters to find a groove and without a bullpen or a proven closer, I’m not sure why anyone would risk a –200 this early in the season. Is their value on the Tigers? No. Is their value on the Royals? Yes. It’s not like Verlanders has much more than a fastball, so I just don’t understand. I’m holding off for now. I would like to play Zambrano at a cheap price here, but I think they’re better spots available in the coming days as there is a lot of pressure on opening day for Big Z and the Cubs here. Just listening to Zambrano over the past few weeks you have seen a different approach and he’s one of the better pitchers in the game when the mental aspect is intact. That’s all it is with him, is mentality. Sheets is a decent pitcher, but he’s not proven. Has he won more than 12 games in any year? Add in the fact that the Brewers are a dominant lineup on the right side of things, and Prince hits lefties better than righties, I think the Cubs have a good shot at winning game 1. Back to the better spots in the coming days, with no Gallardo or Capuano, the Cubs have a distinct advantage probably in games 2 and 3, which I hope to catch a –1 at a decent price, maybe an even better price if the Cubbies drop this game today. Not a single ounce of interest in Rays/Orioles until one or the other shows me a bit. Not an ounce of interest in the WhiteSox/Tribe but I do think the White Sox will shock some people this year. Indians won 96 games last year and some of their best players had down years. Zito/Penny a great matchup, but not interested. Dodgers will have one of the best core groups of pitchers in June when they bring up some talented pitching from the minors, I can’t remember his name at the moment, but he’s a stud and I’ll leave it at that. No interest in Seattle/Texas, although the value seems to lie on the Rangers after that poor spring by Bedard. Santana at –200, probably right, no value either way. Halos/Twins dead on the money, not interested in either side. Twins trot out Livan Hernandez as the Ace, yikes! No interest in Snell/Glavine, but the under seems about 1 run to high. No interest in fading Peavy at home ever.
Leaves me with 3 pups on opening day:
Diamondbacks $100 to win $101 (ML +101)
Diamondbacks $100 to win $165 (-1.5 +165)
Rockies $100 to win $106 (ML +106)
Rockies $100 to win $164 (-1.5 +164)
Nationals $115 to win $100 (+1.5 –115)
GL
