2-0, +2.17u ytd
Pirates +151, 1/1.51
Pirates should be a frisky team and Cole is an ace with a lot to prove this year. Porcello a little too pricey here imo.
Rockies -101, 1.01/1
Getting the better team and better pitcher here, thought there was some value in the # when I grabbed it at the open.
Mariners +123, 1/1.23
Read this one wrong, should've known with how much Astros love there appears to be this April. Felix put in a real offseason of prep for the first time in his career to combat his shittiness last year, think he fights back against age a little bit. Another situation where I see a coinflip and am taking the dog.
Twins -111, .55/.5
Twins -1.5 +175, .5/.88
I like this Twins team to be undervalued in the early going, no reason why they shouldn't be slightly favored in this one.
White Sox +112, 1/1.12
Very few matchups warrant dogging Quintana at home, this isn't one of them.
Also expecting steam to carry the Braves into value territory, will wait that out.
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My approach on betting baseball is different compared to other sports, simply due to the fact that these guys play almost every day. IMO this sport offers the most value on a daily basis. This is the US books' offseason - they'll make money on baseball because a large portion of the action they take on it is -EV parlays. They're not quite as worried about putting out razor sharp lines, and have a much more difficult time pricing in fatigue / bounce backs / inevitable regression because of the sheer volume of games.
I don't play anything above -120 on a total, preferably stay at even or +lines there 90% of the time.
If I like a favorite, I usually play the -1.5 for at least half the wager, and only if I can find +135 or better on the runline. If about 25% of your plays are favorites and more often than not you're laying RL, that's just an easy way to limit risk. The value proposition of laying +175 on the RL instead of laying -111 is too big to pass up. The odds of winning by 1 run are outweighed by the 86 cents of value, using the Twins today as an example. If you run that situation a thousand times the +EV is surprisingly high.
I bet dogs more often than not, fading pitchers on a high and backing pitchers off a low. Keep in mind that it's unlikely for an 88-94 win baseball team to be profitable over 162 games, and that's usually where the very best teams finish up.
Good luck guys!
Pirates +151, 1/1.51
Pirates should be a frisky team and Cole is an ace with a lot to prove this year. Porcello a little too pricey here imo.
Rockies -101, 1.01/1
Getting the better team and better pitcher here, thought there was some value in the # when I grabbed it at the open.
Mariners +123, 1/1.23
Read this one wrong, should've known with how much Astros love there appears to be this April. Felix put in a real offseason of prep for the first time in his career to combat his shittiness last year, think he fights back against age a little bit. Another situation where I see a coinflip and am taking the dog.
Twins -111, .55/.5
Twins -1.5 +175, .5/.88
I like this Twins team to be undervalued in the early going, no reason why they shouldn't be slightly favored in this one.
White Sox +112, 1/1.12
Very few matchups warrant dogging Quintana at home, this isn't one of them.
Also expecting steam to carry the Braves into value territory, will wait that out.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My approach on betting baseball is different compared to other sports, simply due to the fact that these guys play almost every day. IMO this sport offers the most value on a daily basis. This is the US books' offseason - they'll make money on baseball because a large portion of the action they take on it is -EV parlays. They're not quite as worried about putting out razor sharp lines, and have a much more difficult time pricing in fatigue / bounce backs / inevitable regression because of the sheer volume of games.
I don't play anything above -120 on a total, preferably stay at even or +lines there 90% of the time.
If I like a favorite, I usually play the -1.5 for at least half the wager, and only if I can find +135 or better on the runline. If about 25% of your plays are favorites and more often than not you're laying RL, that's just an easy way to limit risk. The value proposition of laying +175 on the RL instead of laying -111 is too big to pass up. The odds of winning by 1 run are outweighed by the 86 cents of value, using the Twins today as an example. If you run that situation a thousand times the +EV is surprisingly high.
I bet dogs more often than not, fading pitchers on a high and backing pitchers off a low. Keep in mind that it's unlikely for an 88-94 win baseball team to be profitable over 162 games, and that's usually where the very best teams finish up.
Good luck guys!
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