Monday MLB Discussion - Add your THOUGHTS

[E.T.G.]

Posted below are some thoughts on each game, its a small card but I think if we get some talk about the games, everyone could benefit from the discussion. I sure as hell need the help right now, not sure about others. Even if you have 3 words to say, it might help someone so add it. This isn't my thread for picks, I just had some time so took some numbers and presented them here for everyone.

National League Games:


Giants +104 / Phillies -114....O/U 9.5 -110

This is a 1:05 game, heads up guys.

Which Barry Zito is going to show up? Zito is 2-1 in his L3 games w/ 4.00era, 18ip, 16h, 10bb, 11k. The numbers (walks & era) are skewed from the Oakland start but he has gone 7ip in his last 2 games (Hou & NYM) and won both. He has not faced the Phillies this yr. Zito is 2-3 on the road w/ 4.80era. Bonds is probable.

Lieber is 1-1 in his L3 games w/ 5.79era, 18.2ip, 25h, 3bb, 15k and has faced the Giants this yr, away, where he got the L over 6ip, 7h, 4er, 2bb, 1k. Lieber is 2-2 at home w/ a slightly better era than on the road.

Phillies don't hit LHP that well and Giants hit RHP better than LHP.

Ump is 4-7 O/U this yr w/ 62.5% of pitches called for strikes

O/U in the series this yr is 5-2
Phillies lead series 4-3

my lean = Zito +104


Dodgers -145 / Pirates +135....O/U 8.5-110

D. Lowe pitched real well last outting vs. Nationals covering 7ip and 0er. Over his L3 he is 1-1 w/ 1.71era, 21ip, 16h, 5bb, 16k. He has not faced Pitt this yr but is 4-0 w/ 2.52era in 4games vs. Pirates. He is 3-4 on the road but no real difference in ERA between his H/A splits. Dodgers are 7-5 when Lowe pitches.

Malholm over his last 3 games is 0-2 w/ 4.58era, 19.2ip, 21h, 6bb, 13k. In his career he is 0-1, 7.15era, 2g, 11.1ip, 16h, 9er, 6bb, 5k vs. LAD. At home Malholm is 1-5 w/ 5.15era covering 6games.

LAD hit LHP better than RHP and Pitt hits RHP worse than LHP.

I tend to think blowing a 4-0 lead in the 7th w/ one of their top pitchers has to have some kind of hangover tomorrow. Malholm is overmatched by Lowe as well and Lowe has been on fire his last 3 games.

Ump is 5-7 O/U this yr and calling 63.8% of pitches strikes.

O/U is 5-1 in the series this yr
Series this yr is 4-2 LAD

my lean is LAD -145/LAD -1.5 +110


Cubs +107 / Brewers -117....O 9+100/U 9-120

Marquis L3 games he is 0-1 w/ 5.00era, 18ip, 20h, 7bb, 12k. Marquis started the yr on fire and his stats this yr are still good (5-2 w/ 2.93era) but he has slid a little bit. Marquis is 2-0 w/ 2.76 on the road this yr in 5games. In his career he is 4-6 w/ 4.30 vs. Brewers.

Bush has been equally unimpressive lately and this yr in general. In his last 3 games he is 0-2 w/ 6.05era, 19.1ip, 23h, 4bb, 14k. At home this yr Bush is 2-3 w/ 4.71era in 6games. He has faced the Cubs at home this yr: 0-1, 9.00era, 1g, 6ip, 8h, 6er, 1bb, 7k. He is 1-3 in his career w/ 3.89 in 6 games vs. Cubs.

No ump info is available until tomorrow.

On the yr the Cubs hit RHP better than LHP and the Brewers are basically even facing pitching from both sides.

Brewers at home are 21-10
O/U this yr is 5-1
Series this yr is 3-3

my lean is Over 9 +100. Cubs success vs. Bush + Bush shitty pitching + Marquis shitty pitching lately + Bullpens = Over.


Marlins / Braves

Its Obermueller vs. Hudson, no line available because Mitre was suppose to pitch. Not sure I could back Marlins with that guy pitching. Hudson is 1-0 w/ 2.40era in 2games vs. Marlins and has pretty much dominated them this yr. Hudson last 3 games have not been great by any means.

Lean Braves to win but line will prob be too high for my interest.


American League Games:


Royals +140 / DRays -150....O 8+100/U 8-120

Another early game, 3:05 start.

At first glance I felt this line was high and there was some value on Gil Meche. Meche is 0-3 w/ 7.02era, 16.2ip, 23h, 7bb, 10k. He is coming off a loss where he went 7.1 allowing 1er vs. Baltimore. In his career he is 1-3 w/ 5.52era, 6g, 31ip, 38h, 19k, 10bb, 25k vs. Tampa.

Shields is coming off a complete game vs. Detroit in which he gave up 3runs in the first inning only to respond by shutting them down for the rest of the game. Shields is 1-0 w/ 3.13era, 23ip, 22h, 7bb, 15k over his L3 games. He is 1-0 w/ 0.00era, 6ip, 6h in 1career start vs. Royals.

Tampa hits LHP better than RHP and KC is about even with both sides.

Series this yr is 2-1 KC

Ump is 3-8 O/U this yr and calling strikes at 61.7%

Lean to DRays but will not pay that much, atleast not right now.


Yankees -106 / WSox -104....O/U 10.5-110

I won't go near this game with a 30 foot pole. If you have a hunch on this game, please tell me. Garland shitted on me last game vs the Twins. The WSox bullpen has shitted on everyone. The offense sucks. The Yankees are presenting Igawa? Ouch, I will just skip this one..


Orioles +115 / Mariners -125.... O 7.5 -120/ U 7.5 +100

"OMG, King Felix is -125", I am sure a lot of people thought that when they saw the line.

The most exciting pitching matchup of the day? Bedard has been a rock as of late, 1-1 w/ 1.23era, 22ip, 13h, 8bb, 25k over his last 3. His career numbers are not so hot vs. Mariners: 1-3 w/ 5.73era, 4g, 22ip, 20h, 15bb, 18k.

King Felix hasn't been much of a king lately: 1-2 w/ 6.06era, 16.1ip, 24h, 6bb, 19k over his last 3games. He is 2-1 w/ 5.82 in 3games covering 17ip, 21h, 9bb, 11k vs. the Orioles.

Orioles don't hit RHP as well as LHP and Mariners don't hit LHP as well as RHP.

No ump info available
This is the first game of the series this yr.
Mariners def have better bullpen.

kind of lean to Orioles +115 because Bedard is red hot right now but more than likely don't get involved here unless someone has something strong to say to convince me.


BoSox +150 / Oakland -160....O/U 8.5 -110

BoSox are w/out a question the better team here with an offense that can go off at anytime. This line is too much for me to lay w/ Haren vs. BoSox unless he can tell me before the game he will go 9ip. In his career he is 1-3 w/ 3.57 era vs. Boston. Tavarez doesn't impress me enough to go against Haren though. I will be avoiding this game but if you have thoughts, add them.

Twins +150 / Angels -160....O 8.5 +100 / U 8.5 -120

Underdog play of the day? I think this line is so out of wack, I was shocked to see Boof +150. Is no one paying attention to what he has done lately? 3-0 w/ 1.93era, 18.2ip, 16h, 6bb, 23k over his last 3 games. He has never faced the Angels.

Weaver does not deserve to be -160. Maybe its just me, Over his last 3 games he is 2-0 w/ 5.51era, 16.1ip, 21h, 8bb, 14k. He has never faced the Twins.

Angels are a very strong Home team.
Twins offense doesn't like to show up all the time.

This is simply a value play, this line should not even be close to +150 for Boof, atleast imo.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Dodddddddddgeeeeeerssssssssss

 

[Man on Fire]

Sea is batting .292 against lefties. Sea has the advantage with a .759 OPS.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Meche is pitching well w/out reward. I'm always of the view that if you keep doing the work, things will go your way. KC is hitting now, they werent for his last start.

 

[E.T.G.]

Renew- I agree, I feel pretty strong about LAD

MOF - Seattle bats have been pretty hot lately

BC - I agree Meche, much like Bedard has been pitching great without support.


Just wanted to add about the Twins, they are 8-3 when Boof pitches. I just think at +150 there is a shitload of value

 

[outstanding]

Zito is a bitch

 

[E.T.G.]

Zito is a bitch

:36_11_6:


I am never right on any of his games either

 

[Man on Fire]

Renew- I agree, I feel pretty strong about LAD

MOF - Seattle bats have been pretty hot lately

BC - I agree Meche, much like Bedard has been pitching great without support.


Just wanted to add about the Twins, they are 8-3 when Boof pitches. I just think at +150 there is a shitload of value

Bosner hasn't faced any LAA hitters really, not sure what he does. Hope he pulls a Chad Gaudin and mows them down.

4 Giants starters hitting over .300 against Lieber and 5 starters have over .850 OPS against Lieber. Then again not sure which Zito shows up against a huge Phillies lineup. Phillies got some hitters with lots of RBI's.

 

[Satyr]

my THOUGHTS....to your THOUGHTS

Just woke up to see my day wasn't as screwed as I had thought...Yanks won and it went over...nice.

Gimme a few mins to wake up, I'll add my early...


THOUGHTS.


live long and prosper.

 

[Jack]

Great thread, we should get one going for each day.

SF/PHI - Not sure about Zito, but Lieber is terrible against SF. Last game in SF, he picthed 6 innings, got 7 hits and 4 runs. His last three years vs SF: 4 games, 25 innings, 29 hits and 18 runs. So that's about 4.5 runs/game.

LAD/PIT - Got to go with Lowe, he has good numbers against Pitt, better team, better SP, better bullpen.

CHC/MIL - Not sure why everyone is on the cubs, I got no leans on this game, but Bush is not as bad as it looks.

FLA/ATL - Line is at -161 from pinny. I think Hudson and Braves win this one.

KC/TB - I really like the under on this one.

NYY/CWS - A rematch between the two pitchers, last time Garland won 4-1, it was on 5/17/2007.

BAL/SEA - No lean. Total is kinda low though, 7.5, no?

BOS/OAK - Like Oakland in this one, Haren is just sick, He is 1.64 ERA, 0.89 WHIPS this season and 1.64 ERA, 0.68 last 3, but his numbers aren't as good when against Boston. But Haren is still way better than Tavarez, and he'll last longer, plus Boston need to travel across the country after tonight's game.

MIN/LAA - wow I thought Minnesota was like +110, but +146. That's a valuable dog.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I have to think Boston - after a really hard 6 game homestand vs CLE & NYY, off that sweep in Texas, will be content to take 2 of 4 (at best) vs OAK, and esp. be in no position to mentally take Haren on.

 

[E.T.G.]

I have to think Boston - after a really hard 6 game homestand vs CLE & NYY, off that sweep in Texas, will be content to take 2 of 4 (at best) vs OAK, and esp. be in no position to mentally take Haren on.

While I agree, its quite expensive right now imo. Haren is no doubt a stud and right now a top 3 pitcher in all of baseball. Tavarez is far from that but A's offense can make anyone look like a stud. They are erratic and have no kind of consistency... A's bullpen is a headache right now as well.

Red Sox vs. Haren:

Manny = .556 in 9ab, Lowell = .500 in 8ab, Crisp = .417 in 12ab, Cora = .300 in 10ab, Lugo = .143 in 7, Ortiz = .273 in 11ab, Youkilis = .167 in 6ab


I don't know really, at -140 I think I would given Haren a much harder look. At -160 its real tough for me to pull the trigger. Long travel after a late game def. benefits A's though.


**About your America's Cup thing...I was in Valencia Spain for 6wks last summer, loved it there btw, but isnt that coming up like real soon in Valencia? They were doing a lot of construction for it.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

green - theres the *A's in June* angle as well, and they are playing well. Sox best Pen arms got wheeled out a lot vs NYY the last 2 games, gotta think the Sox are ready to simply throw a game away (mentally & physically).

I understand your point, but the observation becomes - with past stats - if players are having a night off across the board on one team, then the better stats they present are heavily watered down.

 

[E.T.G.]

green - theres the *A's in June* angle as well, and they are playing well. Sox best arms got wheeled out a lot vs NYY the last 2 games, gotta think the Sox are ready to simply throw a game away (mentally & physically).

I understand your point, but the observation becomes - with past stats - if players are having a night off across the board on one team, then the better stats they present are heavily watered down.

Valid point.. I like Haren a lot..Just thought it was expensive..At -140 I would most likely play him. I wouldnt go against Haren right now regardless though.

 

[Man on Fire]

Haren has a real bad .219 BABIP which means he is due for a possible correction. Does anyone else know more about BABIP numbers.

 

[E.T.G.]

Haren has a real bad .219 BABIP which means he is due for a possible correction. Does anyone else know more about BABIP numbers.

I have no idea what BABIP stands for..

Batters ___ balls in play??

 

[Man on Fire]

I have no idea what BABIP stands for..

Batters ___ ____ ____ in position?

ETG, please read this article about BABIP, said that Matt Cain was due for a correction and I bet on the Mets against him last game. Worked like a charm.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6794020

 

[Satyr]

Angels are a very strong Home team.
Twins offense doesn't like to show up all the time.

That's crucial here in my opinion, and the line is right. Usually SP affects the line a lot, but in Twins' case...

They can't score for Johan any more. They're quite erratic in that department and I can't back them at the Angel stadium.

 

[E.T.G.]

I have no idea what BABIP stands for..

Batters ___ balls in play??

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP).

Never even knew the term existed..Interesting Man On Fire, I will have to read this article

 

[Satyr]

BABIP:dance3:

 

[Jack]

I read the article, so basically BABIP is the percentage of balls that got hit by the batter(groundouts, fouls, base hits - HR)/total# of throws by pitcher?

How does that relate to xFIP numbers?

 

[E.T.G.]

That's crucial here in my opinion, and the line is right. Usually SP affects the line a lot, but in Twins' case...

They can't score for Johan any more. They're quite erratic in that department and I can't back them at the Angel stadium.

While I agree that they can't score for Johan anymore. Its about time that Gaudin gets some respect. I didn't give him respect in the beginning of the yr but going into today, he was dominating teams and its no surprise to me that he shut down the Twins today..

Vs. SF = 2er
@CHW = 0er
Vs. Tex = 0er
Vs. Twins = 2er

I don't think this line is right, I think it should be Weaver -130/ Twins +120.

What has Weaver done to earn -160? On the yr he is 4-3 w/ 4.25era, 48ip, 57h.

In his last 3 he is 2-0 w/ 5.51era, 16.1ip, 21h, 8bb, 14k.

Those numbers mean he is getting run support, not that he is dominating teams.

 

[Satyr]

I agree, Gaudin should get more respect. But remember Johan's run at the Dome which lasted for what, 2 years?

His road starts were money as well. Imagine how many quality SP the Twinkies had to face. But they stepped up. Gaudin would've been blown out during that run.
Now that run is over, and the Twins aren't stepping up. I agree if we look at it from a SP angle, Weaver doesn't warrant -160.
But he is at home, the Angels are at home, following a walk off homer by Vlad (who FINALLY woke up after being stuck in hibernation for weeks, hitting poorly or exclusively singles, no clutch AT ALL).

I think they make a run now. If I'm not mistaking Cabrera didn't play last night, he's rested, Figgins is starting to hit, I think Vlad goes on a tear now. I've been waiting for him to wake up (following him closely as next to Ichiro he's my favorite player).

The Angels are the better team in my mind, by far at the moment. I'm aware of the Twinkies' run but I think they're on a downtrend again. I might be wrong but under that light I think the line is correct.

1.64-2.46

Had the line been set 1.75-2.25 I would either think something is wrong in the Halos squad, and if it wasn't, I would've pounded the price.

So I know what you mean with the SP angle, you definitely have a case there, but overall I think the line is right and the Halos have better chance to win.


Early leans:

Oakland: Tavarez is impressing no one. This guy can't be a stud no matter the opposition and the A's step up in June, that's a FACT. This isn't some meaningless trend shit like "Team A is 34-18 on Wednesdays after their catcher ate a kebab and had an argument with his girlfriend", we're talking about team getting momentum SYSTEMATICALLY year after year after year, at this very time. They're coached that way, that they come to life in June. So I have to respect that. Haren is a STUD.
There's a rule: Fade BOS/NYY the day after the BoSox/Yanks series. Tavarez is another reason.
The price is 1.66 which is takeable, anything less than 1.60 would be too low.


Lean 2:
Dodgers (Lowe)
After that comeback win I think the Pirates come out slightly demoralized, Lowe is better than Maholm by a mile, and Dodger blue offense can feast off Pirates' pitching.

Lean 3:
Seattle - Baltimore OVER 7.5
Pitchers' duel, yes, but Felix is bruised, he's having huge control problems following an injury, and is far from his best days. Bedard is very solid but I'm thinking Seattle steps up offensively at home, the line is 1 point too low.

 

[E.T.G.]

Valid Satyr, valid. I like the LAD play alot tomorrow, already have the game locked in because I think the price gets hammered tomorrow. Everyone and their mother is going to be on the Dodgers.

As far as the Angels game goes, I think the Twins can get to Weaver for 3-4runs and it will be up to Boof to keep the Angels under that. Twins bullpen can toss so they are not a concern at all..

Maybe I think too much of Boof but I think there is a lot of value, even against the Angels who at home are tough to beat. I think Boof is a pitcher who is only going to get better and drop his era as the yr goes on. Weaver won't have the same success he had last yr, I just don't think so. Its not in his blood :36_11_6:

Boof last 7 starts:


5/29 vs CHW: W= 6.2ip, 7h, 1er, 6k, 3bb
5/23 @Tex: W= 5ip, 6h, 2er, 6k, 2bb
5/18 @Milk: W= 7ip, 3h, 1er, 11k, 1bb
5/13 Det: W= 5ip, 6h, 4er, 6k, 3bb
5/8 CHW: ND= 7ip, 8h, 1er, 7k, 1bb
5/2 @TB: ND= 6ip, 6h, 1er, 2k, 4bb
4/26 KC: ND= 5ip, 3h, 0er, 8k, 7bb


If Boof can go 6ip -2er of baseball, I like my chances with a +150 doggie.

Also want to add Boof taking his Whip from 1.46 on the yr to 1.18 over his last 3 games.

Weaver has a Whip of 1.58 on the yr and as seen it rise to 1.78 over his last 3 games.

Weaver is also 1-1 w/ 6.16era at home in 4 starts covering 19ip.

If Weaver doesnt get run support he gets a loss. Just my opinion.

 

[Terpman92]

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[Troutman]

Value on Boof, simple enough, just like value on the Dbacks and Yanks yesterday, seeing that you dont have to hit above 50% on dogs to make a profit it seems liek it warrants a play to me....

 

[E.T.G.]

anyone riding with Shields?