Monday MLB (6/25)

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
April: 91-69-3 +29.126 Units
May: 112-109-1 +17.898 Units
June: 64-54-2 +36.378 Units

Overall: 266-232-6 +83.402 Units
Sides: 153-135 +48.558 Units
Run Lines: 18-46 -35.422 Units
Totals: 95-51-6 +70.266 Units

5-0 +7.153 Units yesterday. I stated yesterday I went 7.043 but must've typed it in wrong or something, double checked this morning a couple times to make sure I was right. Definitely hit at a better percentage in April but I've switched up my style as the season has gone on and make some larger wagers so even though Im only 54.24% this month I have hit some bigger bets. Just testing out a few things to see what I am more comfortable with.


Today's card has some really odd looking lines, some look too obvious. Therefore I think I am going to keep my wagers small as interleague is done and see if baseball returns normalcy or even more crazy things begin to happen, most likely betting 1 or 2 units. Don't want to get over confident and get burned here.


Leans:
Washington Nationals +180 (Bergmann v. Hudson)
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves UNDER 8 -101
Simply put, you can't really cap the Nats. Teams seem to play "down" to their level and the Braves are struggling right now. Hudson owns them, but he's been shaky, maybe he bounces back. Nats have no Guzman leading off and assuming Lopez is once again leading off, they may have some trouble producing some runs. He's been very poor this year but Belliard was hitting well before the return of Guzman. Atlanta's offense just hasn't come back around and the Nats throw out Bergmann who has pitched very well this year, he may be on a pitch count but I think he can still last 5 or 6 and the Nats pen can pitch well enough to keep the damage limited against the inept Braves bats, somethings wrong with the team, they can't seem to get motivated. The Nats have won 11 of their last 15 on the road and 5 of their last 7 vs the Braves.

Los Angeles Dodgers -122 (Penny v. Owings)
I know my boy Owings, he's a solid pitcher, but he still has a lot to learn about the game. He throws too many pitches and can start out erratic at times so by the 5th innings hits I think he'll start to break down. Penny has dominated the D-Backs in the past, ETGs posted some good bits of info on the Dodgers motivation, etc. I mean they pretty much singled out this game prior to the end of interleague play. Penny got an extra's day rest and they pushed up Kuo's start on 3 days rest just so Penny could start against their division rival today.

San Diego Padres +107 (Germano v. Lincecum)
Lincecum has been getting rocked and the Giants might be in a similar situation as the Rockies were. Taking 2 out of 3 from the Yanks people might be high on the Giants but the Giants have lost Lincecums last 5 games and Lincecum recorded the loss in the last 2 giving up 13 ERs over a 7.2 inning span. His walks have jumped lately and SD might not be the most patient team but they in a race for the top of the NL West and getting some W's right now while LAD and ARZ battle it out would be a good opportunity to try and take the division lead. The Padres struggled against some AL teams but they are now back in their comfort zone and going to face a Giants team, lets not forget, that are 7-15 this month. Padres have won 5 of the last 7 and this year are 4-2, winning two early series vs the Giants.

Oakland Athletics +177 (Gaudin v. Sabathia)
Oakland Ahtletics @ Cleveland Indians OVER 9 +100

I am hoping for 8.5 but I have stated my reasons in the Discussion/Thoughts thread. Basically both teams struggled with their bast last series and now face teams/pitchers that they own. Winds blowing out to left-center @ 5 mph. Gaudin has struggled in his last couple of starts. Sabathia last two he's given up 4 ERs as well.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays -133 (Howell v. Danks)
Why not fade the White Sox?

Boston Red Sox -126 (Tavarez v. Weaver)
Weaver is back in the AL facing a team who pounds the ball off him. They also took a big win over Peavy and should keep it going today especially after seeing the likes of Young and Peavy back to back, this should look much easier.


BOL to Yall Monday :cheers:
 
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excellent stuff, leaning Dodgers and Red Sox. GL tonight buddy. :shake:

I like your Nats thinking as well.
 
nola:

i am already on the padres and dodgers, i am leaning toward the bosox, and i would like to hear your thoughts on the rockies.

rockies --
- francis has 2.37 era in last 3 starts (2 of which were versus skankees and bosox). against the skankees, he gave up only 1 run and 5 hits in 7ip. against bosox, he gave up 0 runs in 5ip.

- cubbies have marquis on the bump tonight. marquis is 0-2 in last 3 starts with 6.75 era. cubbies hitting lefties only .239 and avg 3.2 runs.

- rockies are 3-0 after being shut out; cubbies are 0-4 after shutting out opponent
 
thanks green - lol we will see, most often it seems they dont.

thanks satyr - yea hopefully people pound the braves with some "they due for a win" kind of thinking

thanks blue_chip - I do like the rockies, just dont want to pay for them as favorites on the road.
 
Like those thoughts, I have expirienced the same trend as you, really hot start and then a lower precentage but the same profits. if you can hit 55% and reduce juice thats all it takes to remain ahead of the game.
 
Howell is solid, he should keep that Chi Sox lineup at bay for sure, only worried about the Tampa Pen, Maybe a five inning line?
 
nola: i'm liking the nat'ls +180 more and more

bergmann has faced the bravos twice this season: in 14 innings, he has allowed 3 hits and 1 run with an 18:5 K:BB ratio

hudson has an ERA of 3.43. at home, his ERA is 4.34 and in his past 3 his ERA is 5.53
 
nola: i'm liking the nat'ls +180 more and more

bergmann has faced the bravos twice this season: in 14 innings, he has allowed 3 hits and 1 run with an 18:5 K:BB ratio

hudson has an ERA of 3.43. at home, his ERA is 4.34 and in his past 3 his ERA is 5.53

Its definitely worth the value, Bergmann though starting for the 1st time in the majors is scary but the way the Nats are any dog price is valuable since you will profit in the long run.
 
The ChiSox pen is worse lol, i figure that would cancel it out.

Thats True, So a battle of the Sucky Pens. Im on it I think.

I really like the Rockies to end the Little Streak the Cubs got going,Marquis is a joke and Francis has turned it on, add the fact that the cubs hitters are having trouble with left handers and Im on it.....

Made money with the Cubs now its time to fade them...GL
 
jumped on colorado for ml and rl trout -1 +value hope it cashes.

thanks farm - lets cash em, they seem easy but maybe its because they just are.



I've got a pretty sizable card but all the bets are for 1 unit. Don't like playing favorites usually but I got a lot of them today.

Washington Nationals +176 (Bergmann v. Hudson)
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves UNDER 8.5 -119
(***typed 8 but it's 8.5, paid extra juice for that)

Tampa Bay Devil Rays -133 (Howell v. Danks)

Colorado Rockies -104 (Francis v. Marquis) (.5 Unit)
Colorado Rockies RL +150 (.5 Unit)
Didn't explain this above but basically this is a play on Francis, he is a very good pitcher and even after the Rockies got swept, almost no hit, I'll take them as favs but played the RL as well so I can just split these if they win by 1 but I would imagine the runs will be hard for the Cubs to get today. He did get rocked by the Cubs before but he is starting to become an Ace this year. Big difference than past year.

Los Angeles Dodgers -121 (Penny v. Owings)

San Diego Padres +106 (Germano v. Lincecum)

Boston Red Sox -128 (Tavarez v. Weaver)
 
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thanks Dmoney - it was a nice day, good way to break out of just getting like .5 Units the past few days

Adding:

Oakland Athletics +172 (Gaudin v. Sabathia)
I'm going to go with the stats of CC lifetime vs A's. Everitt umping tonight and he has under tendencies. The wind is also blowing in 8mph from CF so thats another thing making me avoid the over.
 
I have a knack for doing terribly after having a good day.

atleast it keeps me humble. tomorrow's card will be a limited card, thats for sure.
 
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