3-Pack Mixed August 21: 1 Side, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
Monday, August 21, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for Seattle?
Luis Castillo starts for the Mariners tonight.
Castillo is coming off a start in which he was unfortunate to allow as many runs as he did.
In seven innings, he allowed four earned runs to Kansas City despite doing a good job of inducing soft contact.
His 2.84 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he actually performed.
He surely won't be so unfortunate again.
Castillo's Arsenal
Castillo throws a fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup.
He is reliable because he throws quality pitches.
For example, his fastball's velocity is rather exceptional. His sinker also boasts relatively strong horizontal movement.
With his repertoire, his outlook is solid against a White Sox lineup that ranks 26th with a .393 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Chicago?
Touki Toussaint starts for the White Sox tonight.
Toussaint's current form has him performing even worse than he has throughout the season.
In his last three starts, he's allowed a combined total of 11 earned runs despite failing to last more than 5.1 innings.
His ERA was 6.75 or worse in all three starts.
Toussaint's Arsenal
Toussaint throws a curveball, fastball, sinker, and split finger.
As evident in, for example, his lower velocity, his pitches lack the same quality that Castillo has.
Also, his vastly higher walk rate indicates that his command is much weaker.
Seattle's Hot Streak
The Mariners enter tonight's game on a six-game win streak.
As part of this streak, they've scored six or more runs five times and are slugging .710 against Toussaint's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Mariners RL at -123 with BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, August 21, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for Arizona?
Slade Cecconi starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
Cecconi is fortunate that his ERA is as low as it is.
Overall, he is doing an awful job of inducing soft contact and minimizing hard contact.
He has benefited from yielding a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and from stranding runners at an unsustainably high rate.
As he yields a higher BABIP and strands fewer runners, his struggles to perform well will be reflected in his ERA.
His 4.91 FIP (like ERA) but factors out fielding reflects how poorly he is actually performing individually.
Cecconi's Arsenal
Cecconi throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup.
His favorite pitch to throw is his fastball.
While it yields a low slugging rate, its xSLG (expected slugging rate) is .611 because batters are making strong contact with this pitch.
This pitch is rather easy for batters to hit for multiple reasons.
As heat maps show, he tends to leave it in the middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Moreover, its velocity and spin are rather mediocre.
Resume
While Cecconi has yet to allow more than two earned runs in a game, he has been able to avoid facing a team that ranks top-14 in runs per game.
Tonight's test will be his toughest yet, and he won't have so much fortune as before.
Corey Seager
My favorite Rangers batter to succeed tonight is Corey Seager.
He is 56-for-163 with a .632 slugging rate against Cecconi's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Corey Seager over 1.5 total bases at -160 with Bovada
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
Monday, August 21, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston & Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics Monday, August 21, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Who Starts for Houston?
The Astros start Cristian Javier tonight.
Javier enters tonight's game in poor form.
Despite failing to last more than five innings in any one of them, he's allowed a combined total of nine earned runs in his last three starts.
During this three-start stretch, he's benefited from yielding a BABIP that is fortunately low especially given his struggle to induce soft contact.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was over 5.80 in all three starts.
Boston's Lineup
The Red Sox are hitting well, having amassed at least six runs in four straight games.
They also match up well against Javier, ranking sixth with a .453 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Boston?
Boston starts James Paxton tonight.
Paxton's strong form makes him more reliable in general than Javier.
In his last two starts, Paxton has allowed a combined total of two earned runs.
He also matches up better against Houston's lineup, whose form is weaker than Boston's, than Javier does against Boston's.
Improved Royals
Kansas City looks improved and well-tested, because they have not lost by more than two runs since August 8.
They've sustained this more competitive stretch of play against the Red Sox, Cardinals, Mariners, and Cubs.
Their hitting is likewise improved.
Since August 8, they rank first with a .568 slugging rate against Paul Blackburn's pitches -- Blackburn starts for Oakland tonight.
Conversely, the A's have lost three in a row and eight of their last nine.
They still rank last in runs per game.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox ML at +117 & Royals RL (+1.5) at -180 at +238 odds with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
Monday, August 21, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
- Luis Castillo matches up well against the White Sox
- Touki Toussaint suffers poor form
- The Mariners, as a team and as a lineup, are hot
Who Starts for Seattle?
Luis Castillo starts for the Mariners tonight.
Castillo is coming off a start in which he was unfortunate to allow as many runs as he did.
In seven innings, he allowed four earned runs to Kansas City despite doing a good job of inducing soft contact.
His 2.84 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he actually performed.
He surely won't be so unfortunate again.
Castillo's Arsenal
Castillo throws a fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup.
He is reliable because he throws quality pitches.
For example, his fastball's velocity is rather exceptional. His sinker also boasts relatively strong horizontal movement.
With his repertoire, his outlook is solid against a White Sox lineup that ranks 26th with a .393 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Chicago?
Touki Toussaint starts for the White Sox tonight.
Toussaint's current form has him performing even worse than he has throughout the season.
In his last three starts, he's allowed a combined total of 11 earned runs despite failing to last more than 5.1 innings.
His ERA was 6.75 or worse in all three starts.
Toussaint's Arsenal
Toussaint throws a curveball, fastball, sinker, and split finger.
As evident in, for example, his lower velocity, his pitches lack the same quality that Castillo has.
Also, his vastly higher walk rate indicates that his command is much weaker.
Seattle's Hot Streak
The Mariners enter tonight's game on a six-game win streak.
As part of this streak, they've scored six or more runs five times and are slugging .710 against Toussaint's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Mariners RL at -123 with BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, August 21, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
- Slade Cecconi's performing much worse than his ERA makes it seem
- Cecconi finally gets a tough test
- Among Rangers batters, Corey Seager matches up the best against Cecconi
Who Starts for Arizona?
Slade Cecconi starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
Cecconi is fortunate that his ERA is as low as it is.
Overall, he is doing an awful job of inducing soft contact and minimizing hard contact.
He has benefited from yielding a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and from stranding runners at an unsustainably high rate.
As he yields a higher BABIP and strands fewer runners, his struggles to perform well will be reflected in his ERA.
His 4.91 FIP (like ERA) but factors out fielding reflects how poorly he is actually performing individually.
Cecconi's Arsenal
Cecconi throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup.
His favorite pitch to throw is his fastball.
While it yields a low slugging rate, its xSLG (expected slugging rate) is .611 because batters are making strong contact with this pitch.
This pitch is rather easy for batters to hit for multiple reasons.
As heat maps show, he tends to leave it in the middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Moreover, its velocity and spin are rather mediocre.
Resume
While Cecconi has yet to allow more than two earned runs in a game, he has been able to avoid facing a team that ranks top-14 in runs per game.
Tonight's test will be his toughest yet, and he won't have so much fortune as before.
Corey Seager
My favorite Rangers batter to succeed tonight is Corey Seager.
He is 56-for-163 with a .632 slugging rate against Cecconi's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Corey Seager over 1.5 total bases at -160 with Bovada
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
Monday, August 21, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston & Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics Monday, August 21, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
- James Paxton has greater advantages in terms of form and matchup than Cristian Javier
- As a team and hitting-wise, Boston enjoys strong form
- The Royals are constantly competitive and have improved as a team and as a lineup
Who Starts for Houston?
The Astros start Cristian Javier tonight.
Javier enters tonight's game in poor form.
Despite failing to last more than five innings in any one of them, he's allowed a combined total of nine earned runs in his last three starts.
During this three-start stretch, he's benefited from yielding a BABIP that is fortunately low especially given his struggle to induce soft contact.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was over 5.80 in all three starts.
Boston's Lineup
The Red Sox are hitting well, having amassed at least six runs in four straight games.
They also match up well against Javier, ranking sixth with a .453 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Boston?
Boston starts James Paxton tonight.
Paxton's strong form makes him more reliable in general than Javier.
In his last two starts, Paxton has allowed a combined total of two earned runs.
He also matches up better against Houston's lineup, whose form is weaker than Boston's, than Javier does against Boston's.
Improved Royals
Kansas City looks improved and well-tested, because they have not lost by more than two runs since August 8.
They've sustained this more competitive stretch of play against the Red Sox, Cardinals, Mariners, and Cubs.
Their hitting is likewise improved.
Since August 8, they rank first with a .568 slugging rate against Paul Blackburn's pitches -- Blackburn starts for Oakland tonight.
Conversely, the A's have lost three in a row and eight of their last nine.
They still rank last in runs per game.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox ML at +117 & Royals RL (+1.5) at -180 at +238 odds with BetOnline
