Monday discussion
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BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Interesting fixture in Edmonton.
Huge game for Minnesota, who currently hold a 1 point lead in their division, and have played 1 more game than their nearest chaser, Calgary.
Backstrom 7 straight starts w/out a regulation loss (thou he's sucked cock in shootouts, 1-6 on the season): 2, 2, 3, 0, 1, 3 & 1 the goals he's conceded thru this stretch (1.85 reg. goals/game).
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Edmonton, on the other hand, has been leaking goals like crazy, no matter who starts: 5, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 3 & 5 their last 8 (3.62 reg. goals/game) with the sole decent effort against a Sharks team running on empty.
This season coming off a 5+ goal effort their previous game, the Oilers have just 3 wins in reg. (to 4 losses and 4 wins in extra time), and they average just 2.14 goals/game when facing a team holding a playoff spot. They don't back up offensive explosions well when they face a decent opponent next up.
As far as the Oilers playoff hopes go, they're basically dead. Not only do they have to try and head off 1 of their divisional teammates for a playoff spot, but they also have to pass Nashville - Nash has COB twice, STL twice & DET + CHC once as their remaining games, while the Oilers have MIN twice, CAL twice, COL + VAN once. They simply cannot compete with Nashville's schedule, which means they have to knock out 2 of their divisional team-mates, and since they've got 4 games vs their division's top 2 sides, it aint happening. At the back of their minds, they know it.
As well as the Oilers have been playing, they only have 3 regulation wins their last 11 games, 2 vs a badly slumping Yotes team. While Minny can't boast anything better (they too w/3 reg. wins their last 11), they can boast of 3 reg. wins in their last 5 and a much tougher schedule (7 playoff spot holding opponents thru their last 9 games, to the Oilers 4 thru their last 9, almost twice as many).
Oilers given up at least 1 PP goal in 7 of their last 8 games, while the Wild have given up 3 PP goals total thru their last 8 games. On special teams offense, MIN has 4 PP goals their last 4 games, while the Oilers have 2 PP goals their last 4 games vs teams not called Phoenix. On recent form, both aspects of specials teams must go the way of Minny, who I've already pointed out have been facing consistently tougher opposition to have achieved it against.
Goes without saying I think it's a given Minny doesnt go 0-2 in this home & home series. If Rolosen (conceded 4, 4 & 5 last 3) starts this game, I'd seriously consider Minny.
Huge game for Minnesota, who currently hold a 1 point lead in their division, and have played 1 more game than their nearest chaser, Calgary.
Backstrom 7 straight starts w/out a regulation loss (thou he's sucked cock in shootouts, 1-6 on the season): 2, 2, 3, 0, 1, 3 & 1 the goals he's conceded thru this stretch (1.85 reg. goals/game).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Edmonton, on the other hand, has been leaking goals like crazy, no matter who starts: 5, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 3 & 5 their last 8 (3.62 reg. goals/game) with the sole decent effort against a Sharks team running on empty.
This season coming off a 5+ goal effort their previous game, the Oilers have just 3 wins in reg. (to 4 losses and 4 wins in extra time), and they average just 2.14 goals/game when facing a team holding a playoff spot. They don't back up offensive explosions well when they face a decent opponent next up.
As far as the Oilers playoff hopes go, they're basically dead. Not only do they have to try and head off 1 of their divisional teammates for a playoff spot, but they also have to pass Nashville - Nash has COB twice, STL twice & DET + CHC once as their remaining games, while the Oilers have MIN twice, CAL twice, COL + VAN once. They simply cannot compete with Nashville's schedule, which means they have to knock out 2 of their divisional team-mates, and since they've got 4 games vs their division's top 2 sides, it aint happening. At the back of their minds, they know it.
As well as the Oilers have been playing, they only have 3 regulation wins their last 11 games, 2 vs a badly slumping Yotes team. While Minny can't boast anything better (they too w/3 reg. wins their last 11), they can boast of 3 reg. wins in their last 5 and a much tougher schedule (7 playoff spot holding opponents thru their last 9 games, to the Oilers 4 thru their last 9, almost twice as many).
Oilers given up at least 1 PP goal in 7 of their last 8 games, while the Wild have given up 3 PP goals total thru their last 8 games. On special teams offense, MIN has 4 PP goals their last 4 games, while the Oilers have 2 PP goals their last 4 games vs teams not called Phoenix. On recent form, both aspects of specials teams must go the way of Minny, who I've already pointed out have been facing consistently tougher opposition to have achieved it against.
Goes without saying I think it's a given Minny doesnt go 0-2 in this home & home series. If Rolosen (conceded 4, 4 & 5 last 3) starts this game, I'd seriously consider Minny.
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gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
two plays i really like aree oils/wild over 5 and the pens -1.5...other than that i have a lean for Ottawa, ..an injury note though, komisarek is out for 3 weeks, he was a pest for the top line of ottawa..so i'm not sure who on montreal gets that job of defending the top line of alfie/heatley/spezza.. and after that loss to the leafs, i don't expect this ottawa team to come lightly...but then again i've been wrong before, over could be a play..haven't made my final decisions just as yet...but two lock-in's will be MINNY over 5 and Pens -1.5....oh as well if Halak goes tonight he is 9-0 or 8-0 @ the bell centre 
talk about a streak waiting to be stopped
talk about a streak waiting to be stopped
:cheers:
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
catfood - that to me fits in with the avg I gave for Oilers off a 5+ goal game. The linesmakers are telegraphing they're expecting an offenive letdown for the Oils (combined with MIN having obviously a decent defense). Such a letdown lends itself to a Minny win.
gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
it was @ 5 this morning when i got to lock it in...but mid afternoon it changed to 5.5 i believe
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
gsro - that would fit in with a weight of money forcing it up. but the fact it opened at 5.0 & not 5.5 I think is catfood's point.
From my perspective - whatever the reason for the total line - if Minny wins, I'd expect a 5 goal or less total.
From my perspective - whatever the reason for the total line - if Minny wins, I'd expect a 5 goal or less total.
Toronto_Mike
Scent of a Woman
great work here Senators! god almighty
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Sens goalie production has gone to shit
small bet on Minnesota ml
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I'd like to thank Backstrom for showing up tonight. He made Gerber's effort for OTT look stellar
small bet on Minnesota ml
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I'd like to thank Backstrom for showing up tonight. He made Gerber's effort for OTT look stellar
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Toronto_Mike
Scent of a Woman
hahaha Sens are coming back
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