Monday Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yes they put them out bout 20 min after I bitched bout. Lol, guess they taking more time trying not to fuck up sp much! Lol,
think I got one tho!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Merrill Kelly ov 17.5 outs -110
Let’s call this half a banger, I’m pretty confident here but I’m doing a bit of projecting since Kelly hasn’t been totally back to himself consistently yet. That said despite getting a little roughed up last start I think he on a good path to being his old self which has been all these snakes pitchers plans coming back from injury (well maybe not gallen who seems to be turning into a different kind of pitcher but that different story for different time!)), right now we talking bout Kelly and at his best this dude a QS machine, as I said even getting roughed up last start I thought there were still encouraging signs, he just missed a bit much over the plate and rangers where actually fairly hot around then. The stuff was there tho far as velo and quality. I believe he will be a bit more precise tonight with his stuff looking good. I assume part the reason they made this so cheap cause it at coors? Well his last 5 starts at coors he has went 6+ innings! He doesn’t mind pitching here and the lineup they throwing out these days prob as weak it ever been in his starts vs them! We looking at what 1-2 starts til playoffs? Now the time for him to go out and show he can give them 6+ quality innings! If he can’t do it be this Rox club how can he trust his stuff in the playoffs!!
Let’s call this half a banger, I’m pretty confident here but I’m doing a bit of projecting since Kelly hasn’t been totally back to himself consistently yet. That said despite getting a little roughed up last start I think he on a good path to being his old self which has been all these snakes pitchers plans coming back from injury (well maybe not gallen who seems to be turning into a different kind of pitcher but that different story for different time!)), right now we talking bout Kelly and at his best this dude a QS machine, as I said even getting roughed up last start I thought there were still encouraging signs, he just missed a bit much over the plate and rangers where actually fairly hot around then. The stuff was there tho far as velo and quality. I believe he will be a bit more precise tonight with his stuff looking good. I assume part the reason they made this so cheap cause it at coors? Well his last 5 starts at coors he has went 6+ innings! He doesn’t mind pitching here and the lineup they throwing out these days prob as weak it ever been in his starts vs them! We looking at what 1-2 starts til playoffs? Now the time for him to go out and show he can give them 6+ quality innings! If he can’t do it be this Rox club how can he trust his stuff in the playoffs!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Another snakes play
Snakes 1st 3 innings ov 1.5 -125
This lineup is just relentless and they jump on pitchers early. In comes a cat who hasn’t pitched all year in Senzetela and honestly his minor league numbers didn’t look all that hot to me!! So welcome back pal, your 1st start is at coors vs a offense who takes good at bats all thru the lineup, if they can’t get 2 off him 1x around the lineup, with top guys most likely getting a 2nd crack unless he flawless, I’ll tip my freaking cap
Snakes 1st 3 innings ov 1.5 -125
This lineup is just relentless and they jump on pitchers early. In comes a cat who hasn’t pitched all year in Senzetela and honestly his minor league numbers didn’t look all that hot to me!! So welcome back pal, your 1st start is at coors vs a offense who takes good at bats all thru the lineup, if they can’t get 2 off him 1x around the lineup, with top guys most likely getting a 2nd crack unless he flawless, I’ll tip my freaking cap
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
I'm always hesitant to play any pitcher prop at Coors. But looks like he's 4/4 @ Coors on 18 outs.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
YRFI is like -145 .. says something
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Got them 1st 3 innings over 1.5 at like +125 yesterday, I had no doubt they would get to dl hall early and often. Now this cat who ain’t pitched all year is gonna slow them down? They have so many guys taking good at bats you really have to work to get thru their lineup, and they have a couple perfect platoon cats so they can mash from either side the plate!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I gotta make the wife some lunch, glad she hungry so gotta feed her, lol. After I get done with that I’ll check out.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Off the top I can tell ya the reason I didn’t deep dive is cause they made pretty strong line for him, 6.5 k’s against Nats a big number, they don’t do a lot of striking out normally. Throw in his 11.5% swinging strike rate and 6.5 is just high. Far as I can see he has only faced nats once this year, he was very good for 7 innings but still only fanned 5. Then they hung a 18.5 on his outs and it just really rate I’ll play a guy out total above 6 innings, I won’t say I never do it but it pretty rare for me.
Then just the price itself, wtf we supposed to do with that? I don’t really make a habit of laying anywhere close to -190 on a team to win a game, I’ll lay some juice on certain things in a game but just on who wins? 9 innings of baseball to damn unpredictable for me to lay bunch of juice, not saying my way right it just what works for me, is the Mets offense even hitting close to well enough to lay that? Amd now isn’t lindor hurt? He the thing that makes this Mets engine go imo, Irvin isn’t a bad pitcher, he actually blanked the Mets for 8 innings earlier in year, they did get to him 2nd time seeing him 2 starts in a row but I could def see him pitching solid tonight.
I think this def a pitchers game, im not willing to take Irvin ov 17.5 outs cause that asking him to be his very best. What I do think intersting back to these 1st 3 inning lines I been dabbling with. We can get 1st 3 innings under 1.5 +130, hell I’d pay the -160 for 1st 3 u2.5 before I’d lay the -190 for Mets to win game. Without Lindor to set the table and/or make Irvin work to get the 1st out I think it makes things easier for him to get thru the lineup 1x with little to no damage. . Only issue is 2nd and 3rd inning have been Irvin worst. You could roll with Nats Ff u1.5 but it pretty expensive. I like the idea of the Nats 1st 3 innings not to score, that only -120 and Manaea has been fantastic his 1st time thru lineups this year, I’d say it pretty likely he holds Nats scoreless for 3 innings, to me that the play with the most long term edge in this game. Either the 1st 3 u1.5 at plus money and hope Irvin only gives up 1, or take Nats not to score 1st 3 -120, that looks like the best price to take advantage of how Manaea is pitching.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
The Ff u3.5 at plus money at Busch tonight is tough to pass up, cards are not hitting shit, I have no clue how they score off Skenes? I’d say let’s just play cards Ff u1.5 but that -130. Seeing how I doubt cards even score 1 the Ff total of 3.5 being +105 makes a lot of sense to me, doesn’t seem real likely pirates scoring 3+ off Pallante.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Another thing I like bout it, since he got roughed up last start I don’t think he even threw 60 pitches (somewhere around there), I gotta think as long he not just getting killed and can’t get out of a inning I’d expect he have a pretty long leash, like he could allow 3-4 runs and I still think they likely to get him back up to 90-100 pitches, they can’t have these guys going into playoffs not at top form so they gotta get them their work now.
Abrams (shoulder, decent splits vs LHP) not starting but available for Nats; Lindor (5-10 HR 4RBI vs Irvin) out as expected after trying to play through back issue Sun
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Hell who even starts for them half the time? I think the jap does a number on Braves tonight. I actually played dodger ml. After exploding in 9th yesterday now Yamamoto pitching I don’t care fried pitching I liked the -115 think I got. I assume the lad pen has filthy numbers over that time? They have some serious nastiness coming out the pen and whatever was wrong w Kopech they seem to have fixed, he another
thrower. Think he has given up like 1 or 2 runs since the trade! His 15% swinging strike rate on year elite but he posting games at 20% and higher since getting to la.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
It’s super rare for me to play a k prop that high against cards and how can ya trust the outs? Havnt they been pulling him early in some games. I like cards Ff u1.5 or just the Ff u3.5 a lot better. I’m super confident cards won’t get more than a run off him, more so than the k’s., the outs just a matter of how long they decide to let him pitch? If that wasn’t a question the 17.5 outs be a banger, he could easily go 7-8 innings in this game but we dunno when pirates will decide to pull plug?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I really like the 1st 3 innings under 1.5 runs at + money. Prob back that up with Nats not to score 1st 3 -120 just in case Irvin gives up 2. I feel like that 1-0 or 0-0 thru 3 innings.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Who knows wtf the pirates will do w him? That organization half retarded
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Maybe a tad, I try to kinda take it easy, pick and choose until I get some numbers to work with. I have a couple angles I play on those tourneys around thanksgiving but other than that I don’t really ramp up ncaa hoops till January these days. I used to be a wild man right out the gates cause I love ncaa hoops but my god the swings in the beginning were crazy, I go 10-1 one day then 1–10 the next! lol. I’m getting old enough my heart can’t take that! Lmao, but I’ll def be around and all up in it when conf play starts up! You be around for playoffs won’t you? They really had some soft ass pitcher props in playoffs last year!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Congrats on winning your championship buddy! I’ve never played fantasy baseball. I tried daily one or 2 years but I was terrible at it! Think only sport im down money on dfs, go figure, the one im prob consistently best at betting! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Hope you still stop by some bro, and you for sure better be around for playoffs. You been a great addition to this thread!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
A full baseball season wears on ya no doubt. If you capping it right anyways!
FadeTheHype
Pretty much a regular
White Sox about to have a 3 game winning streak. Unreal
$$$$$Cash them both baby. Nats no runs and the +130 on 1st 3 under 1.5
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not gonna lie I thought bout them but felt like I had enough plays not to be messing w them. I could easily see them take a few from laa, they pretty garbage also. Actually more mad I passed on both pitchers k props I had those wrote down but just kept saying “dude you got 4-5 plays you really like why fuck w those teams”, lol
FadeTheHype
Pretty much a regular
I've noticed the White Sox can't beat anybody but AL west coast teams. Not a coincidence as I think a lot of west coast teams take a dive in all sports if you know what I mean.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
There is nothing I'd love more than for the Dodgers to suck, the Niners to suck and the Seahawks to suck but unfortunately that's not happening anytime soon. I'd put the Padres in there as well but no one ever wishes for San Diego to suck at anything. And don't get me started on California and the NBA.
FadeTheHype
Pretty much a regular
I wouldn't mind seeing San Diego win something. They are way overdue. But in my recollection, it always seems like the biggest upsets in any sport happens out west. I've never kept track but with Vegas nearby to "influence games, lineups, refs, booth reviews, etc" the biggest upsets always seem to be on the left coast
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea but I think your cardinals might be best team in nfc west! Dodgers bullpen is so fucking filthy, we know they choke artist and adding Flaherty to be one their man starters is perfectly fitting for a gag job! I like dodgers being good then losing every postseason! That the best, I’m getting a tad nervous they don’t blow it this year and 2 weeks ago I was sure they get bounced by snakes or pads. That pen tho, my gosh have you seen Kopech numbers since he came over from white Sox? He is mowing everyone down, think he has maybe given up 1-2 runs in a bunch of outings! There lot of filth coming out that pen, if they can get Yamamoto pitch count up he is pretty filthy. Braves had a man on 3rd less than 2 outs practically every inning and he didn’t let them get any of them home, when he gets built up to pitch 6innings then hands off to that pen not many runs being scored, I hate myself for all a sudden seeing dodgers possibly going to WS! Lol
