Monday Discussion Thread

I hate to be a Debby downer off cards best stretch of the year but gotta say that road trip might have created a little value on milw gm1! I have to look closer but just on surface to me it feels crazy that Freddy p is a pick against flaherty. There no question which team has the better starter going! I assume brewers pen is better, even if I think cards offense is getting going when you put that up against Freddy p I don’t think they do much and I don’t trust flaherty vs brewers at all!

Milw lineup is full of dudes that just waiting to jump on one of flaherty many many mistakes! I don’t think this a good matchup for him. He might pile up some k’s but he gonna walk ppl and give up a blast or 2 with guys on base. I dunno how this a pick? Brewers should probably be about -130!
 
If Freddy p ups his slider usage in this game he will strike out a bunch of cardinals. I’d assume they have the same scouting report the pirates did when they came in, only difference Is brewers starters more talented! Cards caught a break in Boston far as starters they saw outside sale and of course the fact Jansen their closer. They won’t tag Williams like they did the one pitch wonder.
 
Wrong team favored in Los Angelos, twins starting Lopez get plus money against sydergaurrd? There no way that right! I’ll take twins all day.
 
That is a super high total in Boston I think. I know they been a over team but for most part cards average pitching kept them in relative check. They not gonna snack Kirby around! He is a quality start machine and he has very good splits vs lh hitters which will serve him really well against Sox lineup. Kirby would be the ace on cards staff, He should go 6+ not allowing more than a run or 2.

I actually like Houck, I think he a lot better than his numbers thus far suggest, he is gonna get more k’s than the 7.88 per 9 he currently has, I promise that. He also gets some class relief here, he been facing a bunch of nasty lineups, this light hitting seattle team is gonna be a a nice change of pace for him after facing teams like o’s, jays, even at Philly. He went 7 strong innings against minny who was a fair comparison to seattle at that time. I expect he goes at least 6 here and doesn’t allow more than a few runs.

Dunno where the 10 runs coming from? Boston pen has been leaking oil all weekend but that lineup tougher than seattle. Feels like a game 4-5 runs should be plenty to win.
 
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I have no clue what we will see from Greene at coors? he pitched there once last year and was awful, the problem is he was awful in lot of starts at various places last year as he struggled w command and consistency. He hasn’t exactly gotten that under control, my perception was greene been better this year and I think he has but after walking 4 in 5 innings last time out his walk percentage is roughly the same as last year. I know one thing and that is it don’t matter how nasty your stuff is, if you walk guys in this park it will bite ya in the ass! I don’t think we can use the last start coors as any kind of barometer of how he will pitch tonight. At the same time I can’t trust a guy who prone to walk issues in this park.
 
Looks like the days of getting decent teams at moderate prices when they play at Oakland are over? They clearly made a big adjustment for today. We just saw rangers prices move a lot but they were pretty much between -130/-170 the last 4 days, on previous home stand seattle probably averaged being -140/-150, the cubs and overrated Mets were both much cheaper than todays price on snakes! Nothing against Arizona, I like them but there no way they should be laying this much more than those teams.

Clear they have made a drastic change in the numbers, it was fun while it lasted, I don’t think I’ve ever picked on a “bad” team the way I have A’s and I know I’ve never been this far into a season and have yet to make a bet on a team! Sucks they fixed it, now the question gonna be where the right price to play A’s? To even consider that ya gotta believe they gonna start winning some games! I will say I think they have some young players who been resembling actual big leaguers than they did at the beginning the year, they have a few starting pitchers I think are capable of getting outs vs big league lineups, the pen is still a massive concern, I havnt noticed a whole lot of improvement there. I guess it possible there might be some times coming where I’d consider a Ff bet on them in right situations w big enough price!!

Far as today goes id say the adjustment up was long overdue and this line is probably close to accurate. This starter they throwing out today isn’t one the guys I spoke of above! He did have some decent years in Japan but his stuff is nothing special and at the moment he pairing nothing special stuff with a ton of walks! That a really bad combo. I wouldn’t think the walks remain a issue cause he had a respectable walk rate in Japan, I dunno if he trying to be too fine in the bigs (not trusting his stuff) or if he has real control problems? I’d lean to the former, could be he just nibbling too much and will become a 5ish era guy when he overcomes that. Still not a good pitcher but better than what he been thus far. I expect Kelly will be solid. Anyone who jumped on snakes early around open did they right thing imo, no play for me where it currently sits.
 
What do we make of Manoah? I’m lost on this dude! He has only pitched 2 good games all year but one of them was vs this yanks team in the bronx bandbox! He still didn’t strike out as many you would expect that game but he pitches 7 scoreless w just 1 walk and 2 hits allowed. If you thought that was him turning things around he suckered you! Since the yanks start he has proceeded to be pretty much awful the last 3 w 11k’s and 9 walks! His swinging strike rate matches his abysmal k/bb ratio.

I dunno what the problem is? I know 4.5 k’s vs yanks heavy strikeout lineup should be a slam dunk over for him but how can we trust? Don’t think I can, I’m actually tempted to play Yankees even starting a opener. Not sure he deserves this kind of line?
 
Looks like the days of getting decent teams at moderate prices when they play at Oakland are over? They clearly made a big adjustment for today. We just saw rangers prices move a lot but they were pretty much between -130/-170 the last 4 days, on previous home stand seattle probably averaged being -140/-150, the cubs and overrated Mets were both much cheaper than todays price on snakes! Nothing against Arizona, I like them but there no way they should be laying this much more than those teams.

Clear they have made a drastic change in the numbers, it was fun while it lasted, I don’t think I’ve ever picked on a “bad” team the way I have A’s and I know I’ve never been this far into a season and have yet to make a bet on a team! Sucks they fixed it, now the question gonna be where the right price to play A’s? To even consider that ya gotta believe they gonna start winning some games! I will say I think they have some young players who been resembling actual big leaguers than they did at the beginning the year, they have a few starting pitchers I think are capable of getting outs vs big league lineups, the pen is still a massive concern, I havnt noticed a whole lot of improvement there. I guess it possible there might be some times coming where I’d consider a Ff bet on them in right situations w big enough price!!

Far as today goes id say the adjustment up was long overdue and this line is probably close to accurate. This starter they throwing out today isn’t one the guys I spoke of above! He did have some decent years in Japan but his stuff is nothing special and at the moment he pairing nothing special stuff with a ton of walks! That a really bad combo. I wouldn’t think the walks remain a issue cause he had a respectable walk rate in Japan, I dunno if he trying to be too fine in the bigs (not trusting his stuff) or if he has real control problems? I’d lean to the former, could be he just nibbling too much and will become a 5ish era guy when he overcomes that. Still not a good pitcher but better than what he been thus far. I expect Kelly will be solid. Anyone who jumped on snakes early around open did they right thing imo, no play for me where it currently sits.
Diamondbacks are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Oakland.

Diamondbacks are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings.
 
Here we go:

Milw ml
Twins ml
Sea/bos u10
Braves tt ov 4.5

Houck ov 4.5 k’s
Valdez ov 6.5 k’s
Peralta ov 5.5 k’s

Peralta ov 17.5 outs
Lopez ov 17.5 outs
 
Diamondbacks are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Oakland.

Diamondbacks are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings.

I don’t worry too much bout previous years. I havnt looked at pitching matchups for this entire series but for most part I been treating the other teams I have rated similarly to snakes like they gonna take 2 of 3 in Oakland (minimum), until now the prices had been worth plays but they lined this just like I been looking at it so I don’t see much value either way here.

That guy pitching for ya’ll who came over from the jap league better cut down on the walks, he gonna give up hits his stuff isn’t good enough not to, throw in the walks and it hasn’t been pretty. He didn’t walk a ton in Japan league so maybe it will stop but It really hard to back A’s if I like the pitching matchup, I don’t like this one but I don’t think much incentive to play snakes either. Easy game for me to pass on.
 
Wrong team favored in Los Angelos, twins starting Lopez get plus money against sydergaurrd? There no way that right! I’ll take twins all day.
Lopez was very fortunate last outing not to get pummeled, had no control and somehow didn't allow a run
 
What do we make of Manoah? I’m lost on this dude! He has only pitched 2 good games all year but one of them was vs this yanks team in the bronx bandbox! He still didn’t strike out as many you would expect that game but he pitches 7 scoreless w just 1 walk and 2 hits allowed. If you thought that was him turning things around he suckered you! Since the yanks start he has proceeded to be pretty much awful the last 3 w 11k’s and 9 walks! His swinging strike rate matches his abysmal k/bb ratio.

I dunno what the problem is? I know 4.5 k’s vs yanks heavy strikeout lineup should be a slam dunk over for him but how can we trust? Don’t think I can, I’m actually tempted to play Yankees even starting a opener. Not sure he deserves this kind of line?
can't trust moanah
 
can't trust moanah

Kinda the conclusion I came up with, fat bastard! I sure was tempted to play over 4.5 k’s, his number should never be that low but he been that bad! Some ppl did cause I saw -115 this morning and it was up to -150ish little while ago.
 
Lopez was very fortunate last outing not to get pummeled, had no control and somehow didn't allow a run

Makes me like him even more, walking 4 unusual for him. his worst starts I still rather have him than a wasted up Syderguaard.
 
what do we got on Cody Bradford? Morton is a gigantic favorite

8th round pick, he been solid at triple a this year but a average at best lhp making his 1st start vs a team who bashes lefties doesn’t seem like a great spot. I get wanting to fade Morton but I just played Braves team total over to avoid him and get atl lineup vs a kid they should hit.
 
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