Monday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jun 20 Mon 2022

01:10 PM
951Miami MarlinsT. Rogers -L+1½
-160		+131O 8½
+100
952New York MetsD. Peterson -L-1½
+140		-142U 8½
-120
07:05 PM
953Chicago CubsC. Kilian -R+1½
-205		+102O 8½
+100
954Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Brubaker -R-1½
+175		-112U 8½
-120
07:10 PM
961New York YankeesG. Cole -R-1½
+145		-125O 6½
-115
962Tampa Bay RaysS. McClanahan -L+1½
-165		+115U 6½
-105
07:10 PM
963Detroit TigersA. Faedo -R+1½
-130		+157O 10
+100
964Boston Red SoxJ. Winckowski -R-1½
+110		-171U 10
-120
07:20 PM
955San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R+1½
-175		+122O 8
-110
956Atlanta BravesM. Fried -L-1½
+155		-132U 8
-110
08:10 PM
957St. Louis CardinalsM. Mikolas -R+1½
-170		+139O 7½
-105
958Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R-1½
+150		-151U 7½
-115
08:10 PM
965Toronto Blue JaysJ. Berrios -R-1½
+130		-129O 9
+100
966Chicago White SoxL. Lynn -R+1½
-150		+119U 9
-120
09:38 PM
967Kansas City RoyalsK. Bubic -L+1½
-130		+168O 8½
-120
968Los Angeles AngelsN. Syndergaard -R-1½
+110		-183U 8½
+100
09:40 PM
959Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Davies -R+1½
-130		+166O 7½
-105
960San Diego PadresY. Darvish -R-1½
+110		-180U 7½
-115
 
2 that stick out

Brubaker ks if under 6.5 and Brewers/over of Mikolos near miss on the no-no

Faedo first 5 and Red Sox team total under have my attention too
 
def lean berrios ov 5.5 k’s at plus money but his recent history vs chisox has been awful and I think cws has actually shown some life vs rhp the last week or so. That said I don’t think there be many more times he get this favorable a line as he continues putting together strong outings.
 
KJ said:
2 that stick out

Brubaker ks if under 6.5 and Brewers/over of Mikolos near miss on the no-no

Faedo first 5 and Red Sox team total under have my attention too
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I’ve seen it now but i coulda told ya there was almost no chance they hang a 6.5 w Brubaker. It takes name recognition or a bunch of fantastic outings in a row for them to go above 5.5. Not even much juice on him at the moment (-110), I suspect that will change so prob wise to get on it sooner than later.
 
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Cubs continue being a real good team to pick on with opposing pitcher k prop, there a insane amount of swing and miss all throughout that lineup! I just skimmed and did some quick in my head math and it looked like they trotting out at least 4-5 guys most days that around or above 30% whiff! Other than Hoerner they all close to 25% or higher! Not sure there a lineup that has more k’s man for man at the moment. If you take out Hoerner’s 175 abs w his elite low k rate they skyrocket to almost 28% overall as a team, and it even higher against rhp (I just don’t know exactly as I’m not sure how many Hoerner ab or k’s come vs rhp/lhp, not worth looking up, the important thing is they strike out a ungodly amount! lol).
 
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Speaking of whiffing a lot the Fish still sporting a crazy high whiff rate vs lhp. These fuckers above 32% vs lhp! Peterson not a huge strike out pitcher but he does have a swinging strike little above 10%, that outta be good enough, long as he can go 5 innings gotta like his chances of punching out 5!
 
KJ said:
2 that stick out

Brubaker ks if under 6.5 and Brewers/over of Mikolos near miss on the no-no

Faedo first 5 and Red Sox team total under have my attention too
Click to expand...

Normally I’d be all over Mikolas/cards at this price, throughout his career he has dominated milw at Miller park, I don’t really care bout the near no hitter but I don’t like the fact he threw 129 pitches in that game, considering how banged up our staff is I thought it was retarded to send him out for the 9th already 115 pitches deep, I think no hitters bout the most overrated accomplishment in sports, no way am I risking overworking a guy for it. He a horse but that a lot of pitches for anyone these days. It will serve cards right if it cost them a game he would normally duel it out w burnes cause they left him in for that crap. It just a stay away for me cause normally I’d expect him to go 7 innings and not allow more than 2 vs this lineup, cards just screwed me out of a chance to play him since I don’t wanna back him after that many pitches last time out.
 
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Did a Peterson o4.5/Mets ML small parlay +152

He is likely going to need all 5 innings to get there but agree with Fish whiff assessment
 
KJ said:
Did a Peterson o4.5/Mets ML small parlay +152

He is likely going to need all 5 innings to get there but agree with Fish whiff assessment
Click to expand...

Yea I really don’t like him all that much and I agree he prob has to be good enough to get thru 5 to get there. But the 4.5 number with his swinging strike being little above 10% against these guys I thought was worth a shot. I really don’t understand why fish fan so much vs lefties and have the lowest collective ops vs them in the league to boot? Looking at their lineup other than Jazz most their decent bats hit from right so doesn’t make a ton of sense but I think we deep enough into season to say it more than a fluke. As I been playing lhp vs them I really thought at some point the k rate would come down a bit but it hasn’t.
 
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One day when I got nothing to do I might look at fish players individually to see if they historically suck vs lefties or they collectively having a unusually bad season vs them? Kinda curious cause when I see a lineup stacked w right handed bats I typically expect them to be at least decent facing lhp.
 
I didn’t even bother looking at Mets vs lhp or trying to come up w a number for Rogers cause that kid drives me nuts!! He has more than enough arm talent to be better than he usually is!
 
2daBank said:
Yea I really don’t like him all that much and I agree he prob has to be good enough to get thru 5 to get there. But the 4.5 number with his swinging strike being little above 10% against these guys I thought was worth a shot. I really don’t understand why fish fan so much vs lefties and have the lowest collective ops vs them in the league to boot? Looking at their lineup other than Jazz most their decent bats hit from right so doesn’t make a ton of sense but I think we deep enough into season to say it more than a fluke. As I been playing lhp vs them I really thought at some point the k rate would come down a bit but it hasn’t.
Click to expand...
Definitely need swings and misses, really don't like Porter for calling strikes
 
KJ said:
Definitely need swings and misses, really don't like Porter for calling strikes
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I didn’t but prob should have looked at ump cause walks usually play a big part on whether he able to pitch deeper into games.
 
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Had I seen there was a bad ump for pitchers I prob would have thought real hard about the over with both these pitchers propensity to walk guys! Of course I don’t love the idea of a early start get away day for a over so maybe best I didn’t look. lol
 
Shoot. We rocking with 3 k’s thru 2 innings! Pitch count isn’t even real bad!!
 
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2daBank said:
Had I seen there was a bad ump for pitchers I prob would have thought real hard about the over with both these pitchers propensity to walk guys! Of course I don’t love the idea of a early start get away day for a over so maybe best I didn’t look. lol
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I don't put him up there with great over umps but traditionally he's had a tighter zone than a lot of em
 
Sneaky fish snuck a couple guys with hardly any at bats into bottom the lineup. Fanned 1 of them tho, just need to get couple those guys in top the order with redic amount of k’s next time around!
 
Next 3 he will face fan between 28-32% and none of them whiffed the 1st time, law of averages says he should get at least 1 if not 2! Lol. I know it don’t work that way but I’ll be super annoyed if he don’t get at least 1!!
 
2daBank said:
Sneaky fish snuck a couple guys with hardly any at bats into bottom the lineup. Fanned 1 of them tho, just need to get couple those guys in top the order with redic amount of k’s next time around!
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Did the parlay because the k juice was -142, hope I'm not holding out for a 1-0 win!

Get the ks in first then we'll worry about the victory
 
Well he got one of those 3. So 1 to go. Just need to stay in game long enough to get it! Lol
 
i don’t recall ever seeing Mikolas k prop at 5.5, he hits it sometimes cause the amount of innings he throws but no way would I bet him to fan 6. He has done it both games vs brewers but as discussed I’m not sure he gonna go as deep as usual coming off the 129 pitch outing. You can get his over 18.5 outs at +115, again last start keeps me from liking that but I think that a better play than over 5.5 k’s. Man I would be salivating over Mikolas out prop if it wasn’t for those 129 pitches last start. I guess that prob why it set there, they expect last start to effect this one also.
 
The Marlins are sucking the soul out of me harder than this chick I used to date who was basically a vaccum
 
Damn Peterson has 6 ks on 67 pitches. Let that sink in about how free swinging the Fish are.
 
KJ said:
Damn Peterson has 6 ks on 67 pitches. Let that sink in about how free swinging the Fish are.
Click to expand...

Crazy. It so weird to me they actually have a top 10 ops vs rhp and the strike out rate falls down to much more acceptable numbers. Just wouldn’t think their splits be that way looking at the righty heavy lineup.
 
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2daBank said:
Crazy. It so weird to me they actually have a top 10 ops vs rhp and the strike out rate falls down to much more acceptable numbers. Just wouldn’t think their splits be that way looking at the righty heavy lineup.
Click to expand...
Only guess w/o looking (not sure where to even find it) is they are full of pull hitters so want to see the angle from RHP more than the outside in from lefties. Sign of a pretty undisciplined hitting team if so.
 
Took Brubaker o5.5 ks -104 and half of it on a parlay with him and McClanahan o6.5 ks at +209
 
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