Monday Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

Jun 20 Mon 2022

01:10 PM
951	Miami MarlinsT. Rogers -L	+1½ -160	+131	O 8½ +100
952	New York MetsD. Peterson -L	-1½ +140	-142	U 8½ -120

07:05 PM
953	Chicago CubsC. Kilian -R	+1½ -205	+102	O 8½ +100
954	Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Brubaker -R	-1½ +175	-112	U 8½ -120

07:10 PM
961	New York YankeesG. Cole -R	-1½ +145	-125	O 6½ -115
962	Tampa Bay RaysS. McClanahan -L	+1½ -165	+115	U 6½ -105

07:10 PM
963	Detroit TigersA. Faedo -R	+1½ -130	+157	O 10 +100
964	Boston Red SoxJ. Winckowski -R	-1½ +110	-171	U 10 -120

07:20 PM
955	San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R	+1½ -175	+122	O 8 -110
956	Atlanta BravesM. Fried -L	-1½ +155	-132	U 8 -110

08:10 PM
957	St. Louis CardinalsM. Mikolas -R	+1½ -170	+139	O 7½ -105
958	Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R	-1½ +150	-151	U 7½ -115

08:10 PM
965	Toronto Blue JaysJ. Berrios -R	-1½ +130	-129	O 9 +100
966	Chicago White SoxL. Lynn -R	+1½ -150	+119	U 9 -120

09:38 PM
967	Kansas City RoyalsK. Bubic -L	+1½ -130	+168	O 8½ -120
968	Los Angeles AngelsN. Syndergaard -R	-1½ +110	-183	U 8½ +100

09:40 PM
959	Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Davies -R	+1½ -130	+166	O 7½ -105
960	San Diego PadresY. Darvish -R	-1½ +110	-180	U 7½ -115

 

[KJ]

2 that stick out

Brubaker ks if under 6.5 and Brewers/over of Mikolos near miss on the no-no

Faedo first 5 and Red Sox team total under have my attention too

 

[2daBank]

def lean berrios ov 5.5 k’s at plus money but his recent history vs chisox has been awful and I think cws has actually shown some life vs rhp the last week or so. That said I don’t think there be many more times he get this favorable a line as he continues putting together strong outings.

 

[2daBank]

2 that stick out

Brubaker ks if under 6.5 and Brewers/over of Mikolos near miss on the no-no

Faedo first 5 and Red Sox team total under have my attention too

I’ve seen it now but i coulda told ya there was almost no chance they hang a 6.5 w Brubaker. It takes name recognition or a bunch of fantastic outings in a row for them to go above 5.5. Not even much juice on him at the moment (-110), I suspect that will change so prob wise to get on it sooner than later.

 

[2daBank]

Cubs continue being a real good team to pick on with opposing pitcher k prop, there a insane amount of swing and miss all throughout that lineup! I just skimmed and did some quick in my head math and it looked like they trotting out at least 4-5 guys most days that around or above 30% whiff! Other than Hoerner they all close to 25% or higher! Not sure there a lineup that has more k’s man for man at the moment. If you take out Hoerner’s 175 abs w his elite low k rate they skyrocket to almost 28% overall as a team, and it even higher against rhp (I just don’t know exactly as I’m not sure how many Hoerner ab or k’s come vs rhp/lhp, not worth looking up, the important thing is they strike out a ungodly amount! lol).

 

[2daBank]

Needless to say I agree with Brubaker ov 5.5

 

[2daBank]

Speaking of whiffing a lot the Fish still sporting a crazy high whiff rate vs lhp. These fuckers above 32% vs lhp! Peterson not a huge strike out pitcher but he does have a swinging strike little above 10%, that outta be good enough, long as he can go 5 innings gotta like his chances of punching out 5!

 

[2daBank]

2 that stick out

Brubaker ks if under 6.5 and Brewers/over of Mikolos near miss on the no-no

Faedo first 5 and Red Sox team total under have my attention too

Normally I’d be all over Mikolas/cards at this price, throughout his career he has dominated milw at Miller park, I don’t really care bout the near no hitter but I don’t like the fact he threw 129 pitches in that game, considering how banged up our staff is I thought it was retarded to send him out for the 9th already 115 pitches deep, I think no hitters bout the most overrated accomplishment in sports, no way am I risking overworking a guy for it. He a horse but that a lot of pitches for anyone these days. It will serve cards right if it cost them a game he would normally duel it out w burnes cause they left him in for that crap. It just a stay away for me cause normally I’d expect him to go 7 innings and not allow more than 2 vs this lineup, cards just screwed me out of a chance to play him since I don’t wanna back him after that many pitches last time out.

 

[KJ]

Did a Peterson o4.5/Mets ML small parlay +152

He is likely going to need all 5 innings to get there but agree with Fish whiff assessment

 

[King Slap]

 

[2daBank]

Did a Peterson o4.5/Mets ML small parlay +152

He is likely going to need all 5 innings to get there but agree with Fish whiff assessment

Yea I really don’t like him all that much and I agree he prob has to be good enough to get thru 5 to get there. But the 4.5 number with his swinging strike being little above 10% against these guys I thought was worth a shot. I really don’t understand why fish fan so much vs lefties and have the lowest collective ops vs them in the league to boot? Looking at their lineup other than Jazz most their decent bats hit from right so doesn’t make a ton of sense but I think we deep enough into season to say it more than a fluke. As I been playing lhp vs them I really thought at some point the k rate would come down a bit but it hasn’t.

 

[2daBank]

One day when I got nothing to do I might look at fish players individually to see if they historically suck vs lefties or they collectively having a unusually bad season vs them? Kinda curious cause when I see a lineup stacked w right handed bats I typically expect them to be at least decent facing lhp.

 

[2daBank]

I didn’t even bother looking at Mets vs lhp or trying to come up w a number for Rogers cause that kid drives me nuts!! He has more than enough arm talent to be better than he usually is!

 

[KJ]

Yea I really don’t like him all that much and I agree he prob has to be good enough to get thru 5 to get there. But the 4.5 number with his swinging strike being little above 10% against these guys I thought was worth a shot. I really don’t understand why fish fan so much vs lefties and have the lowest collective ops vs them in the league to boot? Looking at their lineup other than Jazz most their decent bats hit from right so doesn’t make a ton of sense but I think we deep enough into season to say it more than a fluke. As I been playing lhp vs them I really thought at some point the k rate would come down a bit but it hasn’t.

Definitely need swings and misses, really don't like Porter for calling strikes

 

[KJ]

And as I typed that he punched one out

 

[2daBank]

Definitely need swings and misses, really don't like Porter for calling strikes

I didn’t but prob should have looked at ump cause walks usually play a big part on whether he able to pitch deeper into games.

 

[2daBank]

Had I seen there was a bad ump for pitchers I prob would have thought real hard about the over with both these pitchers propensity to walk guys! Of course I don’t love the idea of a early start get away day for a over so maybe best I didn’t look. lol

 

[2daBank]

Shoot. We rocking with 3 k’s thru 2 innings! Pitch count isn’t even real bad!!

 

[KJ]

Had I seen there was a bad ump for pitchers I prob would have thought real hard about the over with both these pitchers propensity to walk guys! Of course I don’t love the idea of a early start get away day for a over so maybe best I didn’t look. lol

I don't put him up there with great over umps but traditionally he's had a tighter zone than a lot of em

 

[2daBank]

Sneaky fish snuck a couple guys with hardly any at bats into bottom the lineup. Fanned 1 of them tho, just need to get couple those guys in top the order with redic amount of k’s next time around!

 

[2daBank]

Next 3 he will face fan between 28-32% and none of them whiffed the 1st time, law of averages says he should get at least 1 if not 2! Lol. I know it don’t work that way but I’ll be super annoyed if he don’t get at least 1!!

 

[KJ]

Sneaky fish snuck a couple guys with hardly any at bats into bottom the lineup. Fanned 1 of them tho, just need to get couple those guys in top the order with redic amount of k’s next time around!

Did the parlay because the k juice was -142, hope I'm not holding out for a 1-0 win!

Get the ks in first then we'll worry about the victory

 

[2daBank]

Well he got one of those 3. So 1 to go. Just need to stay in game long enough to get it! Lol

 

[2daBank]

Rojas don’t fan so ain’t coming this inning.

 

[KJ]

Well at least that's in!

 

[2daBank]

i don’t recall ever seeing Mikolas k prop at 5.5, he hits it sometimes cause the amount of innings he throws but no way would I bet him to fan 6. He has done it both games vs brewers but as discussed I’m not sure he gonna go as deep as usual coming off the 129 pitch outing. You can get his over 18.5 outs at +115, again last start keeps me from liking that but I think that a better play than over 5.5 k’s. Man I would be salivating over Mikolas out prop if it wasn’t for those 129 pitches last start. I guess that prob why it set there, they expect last start to effect this one also.

 

[King Slap]

The Marlins are sucking the soul out of me harder than this chick I used to date who was basically a vaccum

 

[KJ]

Damn Peterson has 6 ks on 67 pitches. Let that sink in about how free swinging the Fish are.

 

[2daBank]

Damn Peterson has 6 ks on 67 pitches. Let that sink in about how free swinging the Fish are.

Crazy. It so weird to me they actually have a top 10 ops vs rhp and the strike out rate falls down to much more acceptable numbers. Just wouldn’t think their splits be that way looking at the righty heavy lineup.

 

[KJ]

Crazy. It so weird to me they actually have a top 10 ops vs rhp and the strike out rate falls down to much more acceptable numbers. Just wouldn’t think their splits be that way looking at the righty heavy lineup.

Only guess w/o looking (not sure where to even find it) is they are full of pull hitters so want to see the angle from RHP more than the outside in from lefties. Sign of a pretty undisciplined hitting team if so.

 

[KJ]

Took Brubaker o5.5 ks -104 and half of it on a parlay with him and McClanahan o6.5 ks at +209

 

[reNew Orleans]

Took Brubaker o5.5 ks -104 and half of it on a parlay with him and McClanahan o6.5 ks at +209

I had this + Mets ml… sad

 

[KJ]

I had this + Mets ml… sad

Seemed like it was going pretty well too but that pitch count was no good