NBA Best Bets & Props November 6: The Pacers Are Angry Tonight
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
Monday, November 6, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
Indiana's Offense
The Pacers boast the modern offense that they longed for but couldn't get under previous head coach Nate McMillan.
Whereas, under his tenure, the Pacers' offense was predictable and stagnant, their current offense is exciting and dynamic.
They use pace, especially thanks to the acquisition of former Kings point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who is very fast.
Using pace, for example, to take open shots, they attempt a lot of threes.
The key figure here is Buddy Hield, who even more so than Haliburton is a high-volume three-point shooter.
Overall, the Pacers attempt the fifth-most three-pointers per game.
San Antonio's Defense
In order to keep pace with Indiana, a defense will want to be strong along the perimeter.
However, the Spurs are just the type of opponent that is not built to defend the Pacers.
San Antonio allows the third-most three-point attempts per game.
Moreover, the Spurs allow the most wide-open three-point attempts per game.
These stats show that the Spurs are awful at running teams off the three-point line.
Similarly, they are terrible at contesting three-point shot attempts.
San Antonio's Offense
This game will be a three-point shooting contest, which is one fundamental reason why the spread seems modest to me.
Mathematically speaking, it is easier for a favored team to win by more points when both teams are trying rather for threes than twos.
San Antonio's ability to shoot threes is generally decisive.
In their wins, they tended to rely on strong three-point shooting.
Conversely, three-point shooting tended to be weaker in their losses.
Indiana's Perimeter Defense
The Pacers have one of the NBA's best rim protectors in center Myles Turner.
He especially uses his elite shot-blocking ability to deter opponents at the rim.
His ability to clean up messes at the basket enables his defenders to guard the perimeter more closely because they can afford to allow a blow-by -- an opponent who blows by his Pacers defender will simply get stuffed at the rim by Turner.
Accordingly, Indiana has great perimeter defense statistics: they excel at limiting three-point attempts and at contesting three-point attempts.
The Spurs won't keep pace.
The Spot
In addition to matching up well against San Antonio, the Pacers are in a great spot tonight.
They are just coming off a tight loss as the home favorite.
So they will be sure to take the Spurs seriously tonight.
On the other hand, San Antonio is in a tough spot after having to play yesterday.
Its game yesterday went into overtime, so Spurs' legs will be tired.
If the Spurs are still in cover range in the fourth quarter, the Pacers will easily pull away.
Best Bet: Pacers -8.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Utah Jazz vs. Chicago Bulls
Monday, November 6, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago
Utah's Offense
As evident when they crushed Memphis last Wednesday 133-109, the Jazz love to shoot threes -- they made 22 threes in that game.
This team annually ranks among the NBA's leaders in three-pointers attempted per game, showing that making threes is a fundamental part of its offense.
Chicago's Perimeter Defense
As evident, for example, in its recent loss to the Nets, bad perimeter defense is costing the Bulls games.
Chicago is extra unreliable as a favorite tonight because its struggles with perimeter defense represent a season-long issue.
The Bulls rank fifth-to-last at limiting opposing three-point attempts and they are among the worst teams both at limiting opposing open three-point attempts and at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Chicago's One-Dimensional Offense
It doesn't want to be, but Chicago offensively is effectively one-dimensional.
The Bulls are struggling to make shots from deep. Coby White has been inefficient, for example.
Worryingly, this issue was also apparent last season.
Among other problems, the wrong guys are often taking these shots at the wrong time.
But even the right guys have been struggling to make their shots.
As a result, Chicago ranks 29th in three-pointers made per game.
Walker Kessler
Chicago's problem with three-point shooting makes it rather reliant on scoring inside.
However, scoring inside is difficult against a team that prides itself on having good rim protector.
With Walker Kessler, the Jazz allow few points around the hoop.
Various stats have established Kessler's stoutness as a rim protector.
Last year, he ranked in the 99th percentile in rim points saved, for example.
Best Bet: Jazz +3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets
Monday, November 6, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston
Keegan Murray
I like Keegan Murray to operate as an instrumental component of Sacramento's bounce-back effort tonight.
Offensively, the Kings played ugly in their embarrassing loss on Saturday.
Murray did, too. He missed a lot of wide-open catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities.
The Kings, however, are normally strong offensively -- they've already scored 130 or more points in two of their five games so far.
Murray is a high-volume three-point shooter who reliably gets a lot of opportunities to make three-point shots as an important part of Sacramento's offense.
As his career stats show, he's normally efficient from deep.
He's also proven to be efficient against the Rockets.
Last year, for example, he made eight threes in a game against them.
Asking for four tonight at +200 odds sounds like a great deal.
Best Bet: Keegan Murray To Make 4+ Three-Pointers at +200 with Bovada
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
Monday, November 6, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
Indiana's Offense
The Pacers boast the modern offense that they longed for but couldn't get under previous head coach Nate McMillan.
Whereas, under his tenure, the Pacers' offense was predictable and stagnant, their current offense is exciting and dynamic.
They use pace, especially thanks to the acquisition of former Kings point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who is very fast.
Using pace, for example, to take open shots, they attempt a lot of threes.
The key figure here is Buddy Hield, who even more so than Haliburton is a high-volume three-point shooter.
Overall, the Pacers attempt the fifth-most three-pointers per game.
San Antonio's Defense
In order to keep pace with Indiana, a defense will want to be strong along the perimeter.
However, the Spurs are just the type of opponent that is not built to defend the Pacers.
San Antonio allows the third-most three-point attempts per game.
Moreover, the Spurs allow the most wide-open three-point attempts per game.
These stats show that the Spurs are awful at running teams off the three-point line.
Similarly, they are terrible at contesting three-point shot attempts.
San Antonio's Offense
This game will be a three-point shooting contest, which is one fundamental reason why the spread seems modest to me.
Mathematically speaking, it is easier for a favored team to win by more points when both teams are trying rather for threes than twos.
San Antonio's ability to shoot threes is generally decisive.
In their wins, they tended to rely on strong three-point shooting.
Conversely, three-point shooting tended to be weaker in their losses.
Indiana's Perimeter Defense
The Pacers have one of the NBA's best rim protectors in center Myles Turner.
He especially uses his elite shot-blocking ability to deter opponents at the rim.
His ability to clean up messes at the basket enables his defenders to guard the perimeter more closely because they can afford to allow a blow-by -- an opponent who blows by his Pacers defender will simply get stuffed at the rim by Turner.
Accordingly, Indiana has great perimeter defense statistics: they excel at limiting three-point attempts and at contesting three-point attempts.
The Spurs won't keep pace.
The Spot
In addition to matching up well against San Antonio, the Pacers are in a great spot tonight.
They are just coming off a tight loss as the home favorite.
So they will be sure to take the Spurs seriously tonight.
On the other hand, San Antonio is in a tough spot after having to play yesterday.
Its game yesterday went into overtime, so Spurs' legs will be tired.
If the Spurs are still in cover range in the fourth quarter, the Pacers will easily pull away.
Best Bet: Pacers -8.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Utah Jazz vs. Chicago Bulls
Monday, November 6, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago
Utah's Offense
As evident when they crushed Memphis last Wednesday 133-109, the Jazz love to shoot threes -- they made 22 threes in that game.
This team annually ranks among the NBA's leaders in three-pointers attempted per game, showing that making threes is a fundamental part of its offense.
Chicago's Perimeter Defense
As evident, for example, in its recent loss to the Nets, bad perimeter defense is costing the Bulls games.
Chicago is extra unreliable as a favorite tonight because its struggles with perimeter defense represent a season-long issue.
The Bulls rank fifth-to-last at limiting opposing three-point attempts and they are among the worst teams both at limiting opposing open three-point attempts and at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Chicago's One-Dimensional Offense
It doesn't want to be, but Chicago offensively is effectively one-dimensional.
The Bulls are struggling to make shots from deep. Coby White has been inefficient, for example.
Worryingly, this issue was also apparent last season.
Among other problems, the wrong guys are often taking these shots at the wrong time.
But even the right guys have been struggling to make their shots.
As a result, Chicago ranks 29th in three-pointers made per game.
Walker Kessler
Chicago's problem with three-point shooting makes it rather reliant on scoring inside.
However, scoring inside is difficult against a team that prides itself on having good rim protector.
With Walker Kessler, the Jazz allow few points around the hoop.
Various stats have established Kessler's stoutness as a rim protector.
Last year, he ranked in the 99th percentile in rim points saved, for example.
Best Bet: Jazz +3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets
Monday, November 6, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston
Keegan Murray
I like Keegan Murray to operate as an instrumental component of Sacramento's bounce-back effort tonight.
Offensively, the Kings played ugly in their embarrassing loss on Saturday.
Murray did, too. He missed a lot of wide-open catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities.
The Kings, however, are normally strong offensively -- they've already scored 130 or more points in two of their five games so far.
Murray is a high-volume three-point shooter who reliably gets a lot of opportunities to make three-point shots as an important part of Sacramento's offense.
As his career stats show, he's normally efficient from deep.
He's also proven to be efficient against the Rockets.
Last year, for example, he made eight threes in a game against them.
Asking for four tonight at +200 odds sounds like a great deal.
Best Bet: Keegan Murray To Make 4+ Three-Pointers at +200 with Bovada
