Monday bases w/writeups....

YesSir

Brian Windhorst
Whats up everyone? Just saw one game that I really liked:

Florida/Washington OVER 8 (4.4-4)

Washington comes into this game with John Patterson on the bump. He is one of the few bright spots on this team IMO. A few reasons why I like Florida's chances to score some runs:

The way Patterson ended his year: L3 8.00 ERA 1.889 WHIP. Now I do not like to read too much into last year, especially when you are talking about a solid player but this stat stands out a little. Patterson did alright when he was healthy (4.43 ERA 1.106 WHIP...8 games) and a pretty good one at home (3.95 ERA 1.024 WHIP...3 games). After a short season(arm surgery, I believe) he gets the nod for opening day. In his 8 games of work, he only averaged 5 innings per. In 2005 he had a tremendous year. Washington is banking that he will return to that form he had 2 years ago. Why I wont think he will be in top form tomorrow...I do not see The Nats pushing their luck with him (meaning they will get him out of the game- at any sign of fatigue). Waiting to come in for Patterson is the Nats pen who supported a 4.49 ERA a year ago. Now, that is not horrendous but they did give up many homeruns and walks.

In general, The Marlins were a better offensive team on the road last year. They batted .270 and averaged 5 rpg. Dontrelle Willis will toe the bump for the visiting team. Willis ended last season on a sour note...ERA near 5 in his L3. Someone correct me if I am wrong here BUT doesnt Willis usually start the year off slow? For some reason, I remember him struggling early in the year. WIllis did have another phenominal year LY and pitched better on the road (3.30 ERA).

The Marlin bullpen is absolutely horrid. Their WHIP was 1.566 LY in all games! On the road they had a 5.89 ERA with a 1.722 WHIP. Though Washington is by no means a power house offense, they do have success against lefties. They averaged nearly 5 runs but batted .277 and had a OBP og .356. Why is this important if they are only scoring 5 runs per? Pitch Count...make Willis throw many pitches, thus getting to that pen.

This is all I have right now...have to run...

BOL:cheers:
 
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I have to strongly disagree with the comments. First Patterson is healthy unlike much of last season . Second he was extremely sharp versus Fla look at his early start 8 inninsg with 13 K's. Third read here:
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John Patterson held the Orioles to two runs -- one earned -- in 6 2/3 innings in a nine-inning tie on Wednesday. So the part about being cautious I dont buy into. Lastly I like FLA's pen its not the same as last seasons and the Marlins hitters do have to show they can duplicate there success.

Lindstrom and Owens are two young guys with upside who were fantastic in Spring Training. They acquired Julio to close. Have guys like Gregg , Messenger who might suprise some...They are unproven but in much better shape then last season....
 
To me, I will fade their bullpen until they do prove something. I will fade Washington until he throws well in a real game.

Of course The Marlins hitters have to duplicate their success, but so does Washington and the pens have to prove they are better. This part of the year it is just one opinion/thought process vs. another. If they prove me wrong, I have 161 more games to tail them...lol

BOL on your plays :shake:
 
I really like this UNDER. Willis and Patterson should go 6 probably 7 innings. Neither lineup scares me much.

In regards to the pen to me the end of spring training is basically a real game. So when the group of Gregg , Messenger , Lindstrom and Owens finish with 53 innings 44 hits 9 runs and 6earned allowed all spring its reason to be excited. Gregg and Messenger are not youngsters but the other two have upside....

both Lindstrom and Owens stepped up and became pretty good relief prospects. Lindstrom, who made an impressive recovery from a stress fracture of his right humerus, had a 3.38 ERA and a 70/21 K/BB ratio in 58 2/3 innings, most of them coming in Double-A. He can reach the high-90s with his fastball, so even though he does turn 27 in February, he has a chance to become a setup man or even a closer. Both he and Owens will need to be watched very closely in spring training. Owens allowed 19 hits with 70 K in 40 AA innings...

Just my take....
 
SN- I definately appreciate your thoughts and takes.. Believe me when I say I take them seriously. I think both pitcher can potentially go 7 BUT I do not think that both of them will. I think there is a better chance one gets "Nickle and Dimed" (that for you Raftry) and taken out in 5 innings than both making it 7.

It will be interesting to see....
 
Cleveland Indians + 115 (4-4.6)

First I would like to say that I believe that this is the Indians year to make a deep run into the playoffs. Yes, I am an Indians fan but will fade the regularly. I bet their season win total overs in 04 and 05 and I bet the under last year. I have bet the over this year...confused yet?

This matchup is between CC Sabathia and Jose Contreras. CC has been phenominal in April. In his last 3 Aprils, CC has only given up 6 ERs in 41+ innings! CC has also continually pitched well against Chicago.
Sabathia is 12-3 against Chi-Town with an ERA of 3.64 and WHIP of 1.229. The Indians have gone 14-6 in these games. CC was dominent on the road last year (2.90 ERA 1.9.. WHIP)

Jose Contreras had 2 NDs last year against the Tribe. He did surrender 8 ERs and 16 hits in just 11 innings of work. For his career, he is 2-0 with a 2.98 ERA agains The Injuns. Last season, Contreras displayed great control(3.96 ERA at home, 1.252 WHIP).

The White Sox averaged 5.4 rpg and batted .280 for last year. Against lefties, they saw these numbers drop to 5 rpg and .267 average. Chicago's pen last year was in the middle of the pack throughout the season.

The Indians averaged 5.4 rpg and batted .280 last year. These number escalated when they faced righties (5.6 rpg .290). The Indians pen was absolutely pitiful and embarrassing a year ago. They made some adjustments and should be more respectable this year.The Indians added Joe Borowski, who saved 36 games for Florida last season, and Roberto Hernandez (326 career saves) to the bullpen. The Indians will put a quality lineup on the field, filled with lefty hitters.


leaning on the under also...
 
SN- I definately appreciate your thoughts and takes.. Believe me when I say I take them seriously. I think both pitcher can potentially go 7 BUT I do not think that both of them will. I think there is a better chance one gets "Nickle and Dimed" (that for you Raftry) and taken out in 5 innings than both making it 7.

It will be interesting to see....

Its all good. There is no fun w/o indivualism. You like who you like for your reasons I respect that. You have to make decisions you are comfortable with or you will eventually second guess urself. I just disagreed so I spoke up. Like you said 162 game season ...:shake:
 
ADDING:
Philadelphia (4.4-4)

NYY/TB UNDER 10 (4.4-4)

Toronto/Detroit UNDER 8 (4.4-4)

Chicago Cubs (2.4 -2)


Cleveland/CHW UNDER 9.5 (2.2-2)
 
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YESSIR - great analysis today on your plays.

One question (hopefully you have this info handy) regarding the Cubs, and specifically Zambrano. Hasn't he been involved in some opening day shootouts the last couple of years ? I don't think he's been particularly sharp early in the season, and playing in Cincinnati, there may be some value on the OVER today.
 
Nice call and thought process in regards to the Washington total and John Patterson...:shake: :cheers:
 
YESSIR - great analysis today on your plays.

One question (hopefully you have this info handy) regarding the Cubs, and specifically Zambrano. Hasn't he been involved in some opening day shootouts the last couple of years ? I don't think he's been particularly sharp early in the season, and playing in Cincinnati, there may be some value on the OVER today.

Sorry, I have been playing bball all day- did not get a chance to see this ...hope you stayed away from it.

ON the over in the Tigers / Jays game, but GL with the rest, on the CUbs too

looks like you got a push...Thanks

:) BASEBALL! GL YesSir

Fondy:cheers: thanks bro

Nice call and thought process in regards to the Washington total and John Patterson...:shake: :cheers:

Thanks Nut...it could have went either way :cheers:
 
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