Monday Baseball

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
New week and new thoughts and fresh off a few days of rest. Please bear with me with the record, I just don't like to think about it right now. Thankfully the Yanks took 2/3 like I wanted, just caught me offguard the way they did after being shutout Friday.


Giants +120 / Brewers -130:

Giants have now lost 4 in a row and 7 of their last 9 games. They are batting .224 in their last 10 games. Lowry will take the mound for the Giants and I am a fan of his but he has his struggles on the road:

1-4, 4.20era, 6g, 40.2ip, 21bb, 15k

His home era is 2.74 and he is 5-1 in SF so there is a meaningful difference between these two situations. He also has 18bb-31k at home compared to his 21bb-15k on the road. The Giants as a team are 14-21 on the road this yr. Will Bonds play after hitting #748 on Sunday? I don't know but they don't have much offense with or without him and right now are in a cold funk.

Brewers will send out Yovani Galladro, I am sure there are some Brewer fans who can tell you a little more about him but here are some numbers.

"The right-hander is 8-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 starts for Triple-A Nashville and leads all of Minor League Baseball with 110 strikeouts. "

Is he here to stay or just temporary until Capuano comes back? Well I would say that depends on how he pitches. Is he major league ready yet? I don't know that answer either but the Giants don't provide that much offense to batter him so he might be alright here.

Brewers are 22-12 at home and are coming off a road trip where they did very well. They won 5 of their last 7 games on the road, something this young team had struggles with last road trip and they took down Detroit and Minnesota in doing so.

I also want to note that the Brewers are hitting .286 over their last 10 games, over .330 in 4 of their last 5, and hitting LHP at .344 in their last 10 games.

Yes there is a risk in taking the unknown but getting his first start at home with a young ball club that has gained some confidence this wk might be a good mix.

Lean to the Brewers -130


Phillies -116 / Indians +106 / Over 9 -125:

I am the first to admit I am a Hamels fan. The Phillies are as well since they are 10-4 when he pitches.

Hamels on the road: 4-1, 3.91era, 7g, 48.1ip, 50h, 15bb, 58k..
Hamels last 3: 2-0, 24ip, 21h, 2.63era, 2bb, 18k

I do have a concern about Hamels though, he has given up 16 homeruns this season, and atleast 1 in his last 4 starts.

Phillies are playing pretty decent ball right now and are 7-2 in their last 9 road games. Phillies are 6-4 in their last 10 games, hitting LHP at .309 and .282 overall.

The bullpen for the Phillies is a disaster in my mind, the reason they lost the game to the Tigers yesterday and overall just a huge huge problem.

Hamels is basically a 6-7ip, 2-3er type guy. He has done that his last 4 starts and 7 of his last 8.

The Indians have not been playing the best ball as of late. Taking the mound will be Cliff Lee, 3-4 w/ 6.04era this yr.

Lee at home: 1-1, 6.61era, 3g, 16.1ip, 23h, 6bb, 10k

He faced Tor, Cinci, Detroit in his 3 home games, I would have liked to see him throw a few more games at home. Lee averages 5.57innings and 3.8runs a start this season. He has not been able to work long into the game with any consistency this season.

Indians are just 4-6 in their last 10 games and hitting LHP at .266 and batting .246 overall in their last 10 games.

Indians are 22-10 at home this season but just 5-6 in their last 11 home games so that number is starting to come back to earth, atleast it seems. Indians just dropped 2/3 to ATL at home as well.

Lastly I felt the over needed a look because both of these pitches can easily give up 3-4 runs and the bullpens are good for a few as well however I am not getting juiced like that so if it doesn't drop then I have no interest.

Lean to the Phillies, going with the better SP and the hotter team at the moment (10-5 in June). Indian struggles in their last 10 games is a concern for me but I think they can get to Hamels for a few runs.

***Covers is wrong, he is not 5-1 w/ 5.04era this season on the road. I checked 3 different sites, they all have 4-1 w/ 3.91era on the road.


Cardinals -1:

This game is a rematch of the one played last wk where Wainwright went 8ip-0er and Perez 3ip-6er. Wainwright is a pitcher I thought highly of coming into the season and he just wasn't getting the job done during late April. Since then, 6 of his last 8 starts have been 2er or less and he posts a 2.32era over his last 3 games. The Cards are 8-5 when he pitches as well.

The Royals are 6-4 in their last 10 games and pick up wins in bunches so I am a little scared of them but they have Perez throwing for them, 3-7 w/ 6.19era on the yr. He is also 2-4 w/ 9.32era in 7 games vs the Cards. Royals are just 5-9 when Perez pitches.

The Cards are doing something right with their offense as they are hitting LHP at .327 over their last 10 games and batting .295 overall. The same can be said for the Royals as their stats are almost identical.

Royals took 2/3 from the Cards last week when they met up so I am looking for Wainwright to get the ball rolling in this series. Cards return home (14-16) after winning their last 2 games in Oakland and finishing a 6 game road trip. The Royals have played their last 9 games at home and will now be hitting the road again (13-18). I wish the Cards played better at home but they are 6-5 in their last 11 there so a slight improvement.

Lean to the Cards -1


Few more game thoughts coming




 
GL today Green

some random thoughts,

I believe if Gallardo is the real deal then Davis or Vargas are supposed to be out of the rotation. What would become of them, thats the question. He gets a nice team to face for his first game in the Giants though that's for sure.

tend to also agree on the over on the Phils/Indians game as Hamels does put a good # of people on base. Tough to pick a side in that game, atleast to me.

do agree with the cards play in general, it's just one of those teams Perez struggles mightly against. I had the same view of Wainwright this season, thought he would be a stud but turns out, atleast so far, he hasn't been and it's been tough to get a good grasp of him, when he will pitch well, etc. Just when you think he's figured it all out he comes out with a subpar game. Royals though are really starting to get some production lately and so I can see Wainwright giving up a 2 or 3 runs today but Perez will most certainly give up 5+
 
Renew and ETG, I dunno where you get your info from, but the stats I see offer a much different view of Hammels.

Renew, I have Hammels WHIP at 1.16, well below the league average, and 9th among NL starters. I also see him having a better than 4:1 K:BB ratio, as well as less hits than innings pitched. So I dunno where the notion comes from that he puts a lot of men on base.

ETG, you claim Hammels is a 6-7 innings, 2-3 ER guy. I see Hammels has gone 7 innings or more in 9 of his 14his starts this season, and is 6th in the NL in innings pitched. He threw a 2 hit CG two starts ago. I also find the second part of the statement false, as Hammels has given up 2er or less in half of his starts this season as well. Basically, I think his much better than you implied in your description.
 
Green, I like the Cards pick and will probably be on it as well. As far as the Brewers are concerned, I wanted to take the kid but since the line dropped from 1.82 to what it's now, 1.75, I feel the value is slowly fading away. If we can call it value.
Ok you're right the Giants are a lost ballclub at the moment but they did actually stay in the last 2 Fenway games and had it not been for incredible Red Sox offense they would have won last night's game I'm sure.

They do suck, but I'm a Lowry fan as well, and I remember Buffetgambler saying every time he did a writeup on Lowry, that he's one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. I feel the same way. This guy is a typical home pitcher, but I don't think he will be easy to crack tonight.

How do you cap the Brewers after last night? Rallied back from 2-9 to 9-9, fired 5 homers, only to lose the game in the end. Is that a momentum surge or are they a bit empty now?

Btw this Gallardo kid is a total enigma to me. Ok we had two rookies with very good debuts this year (Slowey and Lincecum) who says Gallardo will have it the same way? I can't cap this, and I don't see any value in taking Milwaukee at this price. If the Giants actually resembled a ballclub in recent weeks I would take them, but they're in a deep hole...
As I said, I can't cap this and will leave it alone.


Phillies/Indians is also something I'm leaving alone.

GL tonight buddy. :shake:
 
ETG..nice card today...I absolutely love the Brew Crew today. I usually don't like playing on a call up...but sometimes you just have to give a kid his due. I'm on Mil -1 5.9 to win 6.5. Also love the AZ RL EV for 2.5 today. I didn't get a chance to get revenge on Jackson after he and TB stole my money by beating the Jays two weeks ago. I don't know why I didn't pull the trigger w/ the Pads that day. Today is my chance though...AZ is playing well right now...fresh off a sweep of Baltimore I'm not too concerned with their last 10 since they had a series against the Spanks and one against Boston. D'Backs are 4-2 @ Home w/ Livan, even though he has 3 NDs. Also, other than 3 bad outings on the road this year (7+ER to NY, Hou, & SD) Livan has given up 3 or less in every game. I think this sets up very well for the D'Backs against the likes of Edwin Jackson. I see lots of hits and runners on base tonight...if Edwin lasts 4 that will be a quality start for him.

BOL tonight :cheers:
 
ETG, you claim Hammels is a 6-7 innings, 2-3 ER guy. I see Hammels has gone 7 innings or more in 9 of his 14his starts this season, and is 6th in the NL in innings pitched. He threw a 2 hit CG two starts ago. I also find the second part of the statement false, as Hammels has given up 2er or less in half of his starts this season as well. Basically, I think his much better than you implied in your description.

Ok..Maybe I didn't give Hamels enough credit in the start, seeing you are from Philly or that area, I did say I am a Hamels homer in the first sentence.

Hamels is basically a 6-7ip, 2-3er type guy. He has done that his last 4 starts and 7 of his last 8.

Lets look at my statements and Hamels.

6/12 = CHW: 8ip-2er
6/7 = @NYM: 7ip-3er
6/2 = SF: 9ip-2er
5/27 = @ATL: 6ip-3er
5/22 = @FLA: 6ip-5er
5/16 = MIL: 8ip-2er
5/11 = CHC: 7ip-2er
5/6 = @SF: 7ip - 3er
5/1 = @ATL: 7.1ip -4er

If you want to average that out its 7.2ip - 2.8er. Maybe I should of said 7ip and forgot the 6 however I don't think I am too far off when I said 6-7ip, 2-3er..


Satyr - You bring up some great points and I briefly scanned the boxscores, havent watched any baseball the last 2 days. I didn't pay attention to the fact that Brewers were down 2-9 and rallied back, if anything it shows some heart but could be a downer since they ended up losing the game. I have never seen Gallardo pitch and coming into today I said I am not paying more than -130. The Giants did see Wakefield yesterday so Yovanni might look like Nolan Ryan since he has a 100mph fastball. I am still unsure about this game and the line movement certainly doesn't help it out much. Now I see Brewers -136 and that is a lot for an unknown. I like Lowry just like you but man I just can't trust him on the road. Who is to say that if he does only give up 2er or something that his offense will bail him out anyway, they are just a sorry bunch right now.

I think the Cards are my strongest play right now.

The Phillies game I am looking to get at PK or so by gametime. Indians just are not playing good ball right now, whether or not they win this series, I don't know, but getting Hamels and a pretty hot Phillies team for a PK might be too much to turn down. Indians are also not dominating their home turf anymore like they were in April and Mid May so I am starting to throw that factor out. Lee gets hit and the Phillies got some bats that can go hit for hit with the Indians, bullpen concerns kill me here though
 
Renew - Thanks for the thoughts. I see your point on Gallardo if he is the real deal. Its not so much that Hamels puts a lot of men on base but for a pitcher who is 9-2, he gives up almost a hit an inning so it seemes like there are men on base a lot, 98IP-91hits. Lucky for him he doesn't walk many guys to get into real trouble. I am concerned about the homeruns though, 16 of them, that is just way too many. I agree with what you said about the Cards, Perez has terrible numbers against these Cardinal hitters. Wainwright has been tough to predict but it seems he has rebounded from that slide in late April-Early May. I don't think much changes as far as the Royals hitting him, maybe 2er but they should get more than that off Perez early.

BigRak - Thank you for pointing out the DBacks game, initially I saw Edwin pitching and laughed because he is always fade material but then I saw the ML and didn't even think of a -1 play. I am going to give this game a deeper look, you might have something here. GL
 
Fair enough, ETG. For the record I am a Yankee fan, so I wasn't rushing to my boy's defense or anything. I just think Hammels is a top-5 NL pitcher, and saying he's a 6-7 innings, 2-3er guy makes him sound above average IMO, when I think he is elite. GL today, I already have the Phillies on my card.
 
yea i was going with basically what ETG, maybe I put it too harshly on Hamels but I think he gets more hype than he deserves. He is very good but the way people talk about him I think it's too much. He still has plenty of room to improve and the potential is what people fall in love with and he is getting better so he should be deserving of it soon.
 
Steed - Thanks

MOF - Hmm where did you see that? I checked covers and didn't see him listed, I certainly would like him in the lineup but if he is probable I would think he plays. Thanks for the headsup, still unsure about this game, want to watch the line and see what happens.



DBacks -1:

First, hats off to BigRak and Renew for pointing this game out, they have both written on this game so I can leave most of the facts out here.. I orginally just skipped it because I didn't want to pay -170 on the ml to fade Edwin. I think I can get something to work with a -1 type play. The RL I just hate to play because somehow I always get fuked and so the -1 saves me from that. Edwin is straight trash, no way around it. He is 0-3 w/ 6.08 in 5games away this season. The DRays are 2-10 when Edwin starts a game and he is 0-8 himself. The DBacks are 20-14 at home and the DRays are 13-18 on the road. Upton is still out of the lineup for the DRays and they struggle without their best hitter this yr. The bullpen for the DRays is among the worst I have ever seen so that should be a few more runs. Livian just has to be decent today, not great because Edwin should provide enough for the DBacks to cruise and take their 4th straight game.
 
Some notes I have been able to dig up..


Phillies are 21-11 when coming off a loss in their previous game.

Arizona has gone 25-8 this year as a favorite

Lowry is 0-1 w/ 7.84era in 2 starts in Miller Park

Brewers hit .310 vs. LHP at home this yr.

Cliff Lee allowed 10 base runners in 5innings last start vs. Marlins and got the Win.

In 9 starts this yr, Lee has given up 3er or more 7 times and is averaging 19pitches/inning over his last 7 starts.
 
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This is how I am rolling today. I have to coach tonight so I won't be around to stalk these lines. I have just been struggling, bottom line and part of the problem has been my decision process. Today I am just rolling with 4 games instead of trying to narrow it down to 2games.. Hopefully everything will turn around soon.


Brewers ML $550 to Win $404.41
Phillies ML $550 to Win $470.09
DBacks - 1 $544 to Win $400
Cards -1 $565.45 to Win $483.75


GOOD LUCK TO ALL :cheers:
 
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