Monday back in business Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Overnight leans:
CHC +114: Johnson
PIT u7
WAS u7
CIN +131
BOS +110
BAL +160 (wtf????)

on the radar:
PHI o8.5
 
Really like Leake tomorrow but that DH really sucks for the bullpen and travel/fatigue/lineup may not be full (and its awful anyways). And chapman is probably unavailable, too. Really don't want to sweat Jon Broxton
 
Thinking over there buddy. Don't think we will see justin throw back to back games that well. He was fortunate in his last start too.
 
Josh Hamilton asked for today off to reset as he has had only 4 hits in his last 35 at bats.
 
Understand that it's sale and all it takes is bud to have one bad outing. But that price is off..
 
Posted in last Monday's discussion thread about the ESPN Monday Night game's penchant for Dog dominance. Here's an update that post given LA's win over Atlanta...

Whatever it is about the ESPN Monday Night tv spot, it has a distinct theme for the 2014 season...

Road dogs are 14-5 SU & 16-3 on the runline (vs. Home dogs 1-2 SU/2-1 RL).
Road dogs scoring 1st have gone 10-1 SU & 11-0 RL. All dogs are on a 7-0 SU/RL run.

But that still doesn't spell out the dominance of the dog in this tv spot: the season's first 3 Mondays featured one 3 game day (Mar. 31st) & one 2 game day (Apr. 14th). Since they switched permanently to featuring just one game per Monday (meaning no late/r games for peeps to chase, starting April 21st), the dog has racked up a 13-3 SU/15-1 RL record.


Something a little kooky going on with the totals too. Not that the number itself is unbalanced in any way (sitting at O/U 9-12-1), it's just that when matched with the current Sunday Night record (O/U 12-7-1) we're left with a fairly balanced 21-19-2 mark. Whatever's happening on the Sunday spot, is generally getting cancelled by the Monday spot. If you'd noted the Sun Night total result and bet its opposite for the 7/8pm est Mon Night game this season, you'd currently sport a 11-6-1 record.
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I didn't see what game was advertised by ESPN for tonight.
 
The CWS are 13-3 SU in home game 1's vs. AL teams: 8-1 SU as a Fav, 5-2 SU as a dog & 6-0 SU their L6 (vs. 3-1 SU vs. NL teams).

The WS have gone a season high 11 games w/out posting a 4-6 run TT. Their previous longest such streaks this season have been 8, 7 then 6 games. Prior to this streak, they averaged one 4-6 run score every 2.76 games played.

-----

The Orioles are 8-9 SU in road game 1's vs. AL teams (vs. 3-0 SU vs. NL teams).
 
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Pedroia and Cespedes with some good history against CJ but Ortiz has done nothing against in many AB's and Napoli is only hitting .207... CJ coming off a decent outing against the lifeless Phils; prior to that he was dogcrap smaller ball park won't be as generous...Workman pitched in the marathon game where he gave up the winning HR.. advantage for workman since only Pujols has seen him and hit a homer off of him no one else has seen him

Still lean over
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Posted in last Monday's discussion thread about the ESPN Monday Night game's penchant for Dog dominance. Here's an update that post given LA's win over Atlanta...



I didn't see what game was advertised by ESPN for tonight.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if there is one tonight? ESPN has the Redskins game on and ESPN2 and Espn3 have the LLWS and the Skeeters game haha
 
gsro said:
Josh Hamilton asked for today off to reset as he has had only 4 hits in his last 35 at bats.
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He needs a few days off. This fucker seems to always strike out when he has runners on base. Hopefully he doesn't relapse soon either.
 
only got +149 on norris this morning, shoulda hit the 161 last night but i wasn't sure if the sale love would be there
 
cogenman said:
He needs a few days off. This fucker seems to always strike out when he has runners on base. Hopefully he doesn't relapse soon either.
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funny, everytime i'm on an under with that LAA team he's hitting homers and RBi doubles...when I'm on the over with them both him and trout have their worst ABs
GWarner27 said:
pussy
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ahah Jose Abreu too? complained about seaons being so long too
 
gsro said:
Pedroia and Cespedes with some good history against CJ but Ortiz has done nothing against in many AB's and Napoli is only hitting .207... CJ coming off a decent outing against the lifeless Phils; prior to that he was dogcrap smaller ball park won't be as generous...Workman pitched in the marathon game where he gave up the winning HR.. advantage for workman since only Pujols has seen him and hit a homer off of him no one else has seen him

Still lean over
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i do too, the bottom of that lineup is hideous though so i may like BOS more. Workman is no slouch and he's started to get lined like one
 
GWarner27 said:
i do too, the bottom of that lineup is hideous though so i may like BOS more. Workman is no slouch and he's started to get lined like one
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it's worse when cespedes/ortiz/pedroia aren't hitting or in the line up..but I don't think workman is a slouch but he's hittable for sure
 
I know GW always hates Worley, I always kinda like him. He has good splits, poor history and santana good splits, average history. Santana has been very good for 5 innings than he fades. Teams have same record and virtually same games out of first. Pirates great at home on losing streak. Braves poor on road, just swept A's. I sense over. Gosselin and LaStella have been great call ups. Line drive guys, solid in field. CJ owns leftys. Still lots of Ks. BJ's survival humbleness and team player attitude has grown on me. He almost made insane catch other night. Just strikes out too god damn much.
 
Been fighting the astromedia virus in my computer. Currently winning. 61 cents thats amazing. Baltimore is 11-3 to WS 10-4 in days but Baltimore is off 1 win and 2 losses which says seek out and destroy. Probably take a bad number.
Seattle back on their 13-1.
Pitt 9-3
Arizona 3-9
Reds 3-10
Quick look at trends says
KC
KC
Min
?
 
Vargas 7-3 on 4 2.60 ERA
Santana 5-5 4.06 ERA on 4
Elias short sample 6+ 10-1 innings 1.74 ERA
Sale on 5 3-0 2.29 ERA
Leaning to skip Baltimore after looking at BC's post
Leake on 4 5-6 4.17 ERA
Worley 23.1 innings 3.47
Zimmerman on 4 76.1 innings 3.30 ERA 3-4
C J Wilson on 5 3.43 4-3 record seems to have had a good night game as his night ERA has dropped to 5.87
Just learned at Statfox that the Seattle 13-1 includes RL
 
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Johnnyonthespot said:
I know GW always hates Worley, I always kinda like him. He has good splits, poor history and santana good splits, average history. Santana has been very good for 5 innings than he fades. Teams have same record and virtually same games out of first. Pirates great at home on losing streak. Braves poor on road, just swept A's. I sense over. Gosselin and LaStella have been great call ups. Line drive guys, solid in field. CJ owns leftys. Still lots of Ks. BJ's survival humbleness and team player attitude has grown on me. He almost made insane catch other night. Just strikes out too god damn much.
Click to expand...


whoa whoa whoa, jots. Don't you see that under lean up there hahaha i'm potentially backing him tonight.

for the record, PIT is a better team by six football fields than ATL
 
Zona struggles with RH starters - they have scored 3-1-4 (Penny) - 2 on this road trip. but even going back further - 2-3-3-4 at home, 5 (Simon) 0-2-2 on the road.
 
Pittsburgh is 2-11 SU (2-3 SU @home) in their latest 13 games of scoring 6 runs or less. They went
7-6 SU (4-1 SU @home) in their prior 13 games of 6 runs or less.
 
Phils played in SF yesterday, home today. They lost 3 hours in the exchange....its going to be late early for them tonight. Very tough spot without a day of rest.
 
Angels have gone a season high 12 games without one totaling 10+ runs. Their previous longest such streaks this season were 5 (twice), 4 then 3 (6 times) games. Before this streak they combined with their opponent to average one 10+ run game every 2.44 games played.

Angels have gone a season equalling high 5 road games without one totaling 10+ runs. Their previous longest such streaks this season were 5, 4 then 3 (3 times) games. Before this streak they combined with their opponent to average one 10+ run game every 2.30 road games played.

Angels have gone a season high 8 games without conceding a 5+ run total. Their previous longest such streaks this season were 6 then 3 (9 times) games. Before this streak they conceded an average of one 5+ run total every 2.53 games played.

Angels are 11-8 to Over in road game 1's this season:
4-0 to Under vs. NL opps
11-4 to Over vs. AL opps -
4-2 to Over vs. divisional opps
7-2 to Over vs. non-divisional opps
 
If they had already been on East Coast, played a 1pm game and finished at 4pm. Then tonight's game would be about 27 hours after yesterday ended.
They were on West Coast, played a 1pm game and finished at 4pm PST, which is 7pm EST. They only get 24 hours (which includes a flight across country) before playing tonight's game.

They lost 3 hours because their day game started later in the day then if they had been on the East Coast.
 
The Phillies are 0-4 SU since 2010 going West Coast to East Coast though. So you may be on to something. Here are the four games:

[TABLE="width: 853"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Day[/TD]
[TD]Site[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Starter[/TD]
[TD]Opp[/TD]
[TD]Starter[/TD]
[TD]Final[/TD]
[TD]W/L[/TD]
[TD]O/U[/TD]
[TD]Line[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]30-Apr-10[/TD]
[TD]Fri[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Phillies[/TD]
[TD]Kyle Kendrick - R[/TD]
[TD]Mets[/TD]
[TD]Jonathon Niese - L[/TD]
[TD]1-9[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-140[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]23-Oct-10[/TD]
[TD]Sat[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Phillies[/TD]
[TD]Roy Oswalt - R[/TD]
[TD]Giants[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Sanchez - L[/TD]
[TD]2-3[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-160[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]12-Aug-11[/TD]
[TD]Fri[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Phillies[/TD]
[TD]Cole Hamels - L[/TD]
[TD]Nationals[/TD]
[TD]Livan Hernandez - R[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-270[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]20-Jul-12[/TD]
[TD]Fri[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Phillies[/TD]
[TD]Vance Worley - R[/TD]
[TD]Giants[/TD]
[TD]Tim Lincecum - R[/TD]
[TD]2-7[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]18-Aug-14[/TD]
[TD]Mon[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Phillies[/TD]
[TD]Jerome Williams - R[/TD]
[TD]Mariners[/TD]
[TD]Roenis Elias - L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]144[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.5[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
I thought we were supposed to fade East Coast teams traveling to the West Coast because of circadian rhythms. Here is the SI article about West Coast NFL teams traveling East. link

Interestingly, ATS performance of Pacific Time Zone teams gets progressively worse as they travel further east. Based on these results, we can conclude that West Coast teams don’t meet expectations and therefore “play badly” when traveling to the East Coast.
Click to expand...

Good find. My bad for calling you champ in a condescending manner.
 
play ball said:
Hot teams

BAL 26-13 in last 29 games.
SEA 13-5 in last 18 games.
KC 20-5 in last 25 games.
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I expect a lull out of Baltimore shortly (to the degree I think it may have already started in Cle.). They have the biggest lead in any division and they have downright dominated their divisional opponents. Their current road trip is against non-divisional opponents, and furthermore against teams not threatening for the playoffs. So on 2 counts they don't immediately inspire any fear or fight from the O's. Casting my gaze wider, they've (starting with Cle) a stretch of 20 games w/only 4 against a div. opponent & none vs. a team threatening to make the playoffs. Outside of the fact I think they'll be up for those 4 (vs. TBY), I think we'll see them go 8-8/9-7 over the other 16 (where they could deliver an 11-5 or even 12-4 mark given some sort of peak form). A kind of muddling period before their mass of divisional fixtures to end the season sees them set out their stall entering the playoffs.
 
In the Boston game first 5 there were 9 hits and 7 walks and 3 runs were scored. I had the first half over. GOOD under ump. If I have been unclear here, they averaged slightly more than 3 men on base each inning
 
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