Game 1 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: Don't Overlook Indiana's Matchup Advantages
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Monday, May 6, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
Don't Discount The Pacers
Everybody is down on the Pacers because they required six games to oust a Milwaukee team that was missing its best player and often its second-best player.
But the Pacers regularly play to their level of competition, as evident when they struggled against the Spurs and Hornets in the regular season.
Given this tendency, we rarely got to see the best that Indiana had to offer.
Philadelphia Was Easier
Conversely, New York struggled with a 76ers team that, in key respects, was an easier opponent for it to face than the Pacers will be.
Philadelphia naturally plays slower because it organizes its offense around post-ups from Joel Embiid.
The 76ers' slowness enabled New York, which likes to utilize a short rotation, to remain rested.
Indiana's Pace
A crucial factor in this game will be that Indiana has the style of play to punish a Knicks team for lacking depth.
The Pacers love to push the tempo, which will be bad news for a New York team that wants to play slow and that needs to play slow in order not to need to lengthen its rotation.
Now, Indiana will push the tempo off made baskets as well as missed baskets, so the counterpoint that New York's dominance on the glass should limit Indiana's ability to push the tempo isn't exactly valid.
The notion that the Knicks will dominate on the glass is anyhow overstated, as based on the statistics we're talking about a difference of fewer than three offensive rebunds per game.
But let's talk about a significant reason why the Knicks are often able to own the offensive glass.
Teams like to commit multiple defenders to Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson.
In doing so, they diminish their ability to block out.
Andrew Nembhard's Defense
The Pacers can block out effectively tonight because they won't have to send multiple defenders to Brunson.
They can rely on a few different on-ball defenders who will give Brunson different looks, with Andrew Nesmith with his length being an important defender, although the most important one is Andrew Nembhard.
Nembhard did an excellent job, in the Milwaukee series, limiting the efficiency of Milwaukee's own star point guard, Damian Lillard.
The Pacers hounded Lillard especially in Game 6 on every inch of the floor, which is something that they can due to also wear down Brunson and further punish New York's lack of depth.
In the regular season, the Pacers had a lot of success against teams like Dallas and Oklahoma City that have one player in particular with a high usage rate.
This is something that will carry over to the postseason. Having guys like Nembhard will help by providing good on-ball defense while allowing teammates to remain locked into Brunson's teammates.
Indiana's Three-Pointers
In the regular season, the Pacers flexed their comfort with making three-pointers in the Knicks' venue.
Indiana has one of the better three-point shooting groups already.
The Pacers will take advantage of a Knicks defense that, in the first round of these playoffs, allowed the third-highest rate of open three-point attempts and the fourth-highest rate of wide-open ones.
Center Myles Turner is key. He shot 43.9 percent from behind the arc in the first season.
He'll exploit a Knicks defense that will struggle to have its bigs guard the perimeter, with Philadelphia's own more post-up-oriented center having some decisive success from behind the arc against the Knicks that also made scoring inside all the easier by stretching out the defense.
The Pacers' depth is evident in their ability to bring multiple guys off the bench who, like Turner, are efficient from deep.
Tyrese Haliburton's role as a facilitator will help Turner and others get open.
While OG Anunoby is well-known as a solid defender, he can't guard Haliburton and Pascal Siakam at the same time.
Best Bet: Pacers +6 at -108 with Heritage
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden
The Guards' Defense
This matchup will favor Boston because of its guards' defense.
Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are both known as excellent defenders. Both have been selected to All-NBA Defensive squads.
Their counterparts, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, are both extremely important for Cleveland's offense, especially with center Jarrett Allen still injured and fellow big Evan Mobley becoming less dangerous in Allen's absence.
Mitchell is especially central to the Cavaliers' offense.
Boston's ability to lock down Cleveland's guards will be decisive, as I don't see the Cavaliers finding another potent source of offense.
Cleveland has done a horrid job shooting away from home, with their road three-point percentage now sitting at 34.8-percent, which is 2.8 points lower than their home three-point percentage.
Max Strus is an example of an important Cavaliers shooter who excelled at home but was non-existent on the road.
Boston's Offense
Orlando dominated the Cavaliers in Games 3 and 4 in Orlando with immense scoring outputs driven by good guard play and solid play from its forwards.
Boston has the personnel to be much more dangerous than the Magic offensively, with stronger forward play from Jaylen Brown and of course Jayson Tatum.
Mitchell, who will devote his energy to trying to score, and especially Garland are vulnerable defensively. They allowed Orlando's backcourt to be dangerous and efficient in Orlando, and now they face a tougher test from Boston.
Cleveland On The Road
In general, the Cavaliers are still worth fading on the road.
Under their current head coach, they have yet to win on the road.
In the first round, Cleveland lost by 38, 33, and seven in its three respective games in Orlando, failing to cover the spread each time.
Boston had close games against Miami in the regular season but was locked in come playoff-time, blowing out the Heat in Games 1, 3, 4, and 5.
The Celtics have no problem blowing out teams. Cleveland with its road woes will pose a softer challenge.
Best Bet: Celtics -11 at -115 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
OKC's Guards on Defense
The Thunder will win Game 1 decisively because of the superior defensive play of their guards.
Lu Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander both received votes for the NBA All-Defensive team.
They can bother Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Doncic, bothered by his knee, is also not in his best form.
He shot the ball poorly against a worse Clippers defense.
OKC's defense is also deep, with Cason Wallace with his quick feet and quick hands – both features that make him well-suited to guard Kyrie – being another good guard for the Thunder defense.
The Rest of OKC's Defense
Multiple good wing defenders and Chet Holmgren embellish the rest of OKC's defense.
With efficient shooter Maxi Kleber out, Dallas' bigs are going to focus on attacking the basket, where they'll have to contend with Holmgren's rim protection.
Holmgren's rim protection quality is evident in the high total of field goal attempts that he defends at the rim per game and in his excellent ability to limit opposing efficiency at the rim.
With great perimeter defenders and the likes of Holmgren, OKC is well-suited to limit Dallas offensively.
OKC's Offense
The Mavericks are not remotely as well-equipped defensively.
Thunder offensive centerpiece Shai Gilgeous-Alexander does not have to deal with a Herb Jones-type player who can bother him.
Kleber's absence is huge because of his versatility, which would have made him a good switch candidate on ball-screens.
The Mavs now don't have a big who is comfortable along the perimeter, which is a problem against a pick-and-pop stud like the versatile Holmgren.
They've had to play Kleber more and bench Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford because of the poor perimeter play of the latter two bigs.
Dallas is one of the worse teams at limiting three-point efficiency, which is something that the Thunder, as the NBA's most efficient team from deep, can punish the Mavericks for.
OKC's stronger perimeter defense will be decisive in allowing the Thunder to win the battle from behind the arc, while Holmgren will help them win inside as well.
Best Bet: Thunder -3.5 at -112 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Monday, May 6, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
Don't Discount The Pacers
Everybody is down on the Pacers because they required six games to oust a Milwaukee team that was missing its best player and often its second-best player.
But the Pacers regularly play to their level of competition, as evident when they struggled against the Spurs and Hornets in the regular season.
Given this tendency, we rarely got to see the best that Indiana had to offer.
Philadelphia Was Easier
Conversely, New York struggled with a 76ers team that, in key respects, was an easier opponent for it to face than the Pacers will be.
Philadelphia naturally plays slower because it organizes its offense around post-ups from Joel Embiid.
The 76ers' slowness enabled New York, which likes to utilize a short rotation, to remain rested.
Indiana's Pace
A crucial factor in this game will be that Indiana has the style of play to punish a Knicks team for lacking depth.
The Pacers love to push the tempo, which will be bad news for a New York team that wants to play slow and that needs to play slow in order not to need to lengthen its rotation.
Now, Indiana will push the tempo off made baskets as well as missed baskets, so the counterpoint that New York's dominance on the glass should limit Indiana's ability to push the tempo isn't exactly valid.
The notion that the Knicks will dominate on the glass is anyhow overstated, as based on the statistics we're talking about a difference of fewer than three offensive rebunds per game.
But let's talk about a significant reason why the Knicks are often able to own the offensive glass.
Teams like to commit multiple defenders to Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson.
In doing so, they diminish their ability to block out.
Andrew Nembhard's Defense
The Pacers can block out effectively tonight because they won't have to send multiple defenders to Brunson.
They can rely on a few different on-ball defenders who will give Brunson different looks, with Andrew Nesmith with his length being an important defender, although the most important one is Andrew Nembhard.
Nembhard did an excellent job, in the Milwaukee series, limiting the efficiency of Milwaukee's own star point guard, Damian Lillard.
The Pacers hounded Lillard especially in Game 6 on every inch of the floor, which is something that they can due to also wear down Brunson and further punish New York's lack of depth.
In the regular season, the Pacers had a lot of success against teams like Dallas and Oklahoma City that have one player in particular with a high usage rate.
This is something that will carry over to the postseason. Having guys like Nembhard will help by providing good on-ball defense while allowing teammates to remain locked into Brunson's teammates.
Indiana's Three-Pointers
In the regular season, the Pacers flexed their comfort with making three-pointers in the Knicks' venue.
Indiana has one of the better three-point shooting groups already.
The Pacers will take advantage of a Knicks defense that, in the first round of these playoffs, allowed the third-highest rate of open three-point attempts and the fourth-highest rate of wide-open ones.
Center Myles Turner is key. He shot 43.9 percent from behind the arc in the first season.
He'll exploit a Knicks defense that will struggle to have its bigs guard the perimeter, with Philadelphia's own more post-up-oriented center having some decisive success from behind the arc against the Knicks that also made scoring inside all the easier by stretching out the defense.
The Pacers' depth is evident in their ability to bring multiple guys off the bench who, like Turner, are efficient from deep.
Tyrese Haliburton's role as a facilitator will help Turner and others get open.
While OG Anunoby is well-known as a solid defender, he can't guard Haliburton and Pascal Siakam at the same time.
Best Bet: Pacers +6 at -108 with Heritage
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden
The Guards' Defense
This matchup will favor Boston because of its guards' defense.
Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are both known as excellent defenders. Both have been selected to All-NBA Defensive squads.
Their counterparts, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, are both extremely important for Cleveland's offense, especially with center Jarrett Allen still injured and fellow big Evan Mobley becoming less dangerous in Allen's absence.
Mitchell is especially central to the Cavaliers' offense.
Boston's ability to lock down Cleveland's guards will be decisive, as I don't see the Cavaliers finding another potent source of offense.
Cleveland has done a horrid job shooting away from home, with their road three-point percentage now sitting at 34.8-percent, which is 2.8 points lower than their home three-point percentage.
Max Strus is an example of an important Cavaliers shooter who excelled at home but was non-existent on the road.
Boston's Offense
Orlando dominated the Cavaliers in Games 3 and 4 in Orlando with immense scoring outputs driven by good guard play and solid play from its forwards.
Boston has the personnel to be much more dangerous than the Magic offensively, with stronger forward play from Jaylen Brown and of course Jayson Tatum.
Mitchell, who will devote his energy to trying to score, and especially Garland are vulnerable defensively. They allowed Orlando's backcourt to be dangerous and efficient in Orlando, and now they face a tougher test from Boston.
Cleveland On The Road
In general, the Cavaliers are still worth fading on the road.
Under their current head coach, they have yet to win on the road.
In the first round, Cleveland lost by 38, 33, and seven in its three respective games in Orlando, failing to cover the spread each time.
Boston had close games against Miami in the regular season but was locked in come playoff-time, blowing out the Heat in Games 1, 3, 4, and 5.
The Celtics have no problem blowing out teams. Cleveland with its road woes will pose a softer challenge.
Best Bet: Celtics -11 at -115 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
OKC's Guards on Defense
The Thunder will win Game 1 decisively because of the superior defensive play of their guards.
Lu Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander both received votes for the NBA All-Defensive team.
They can bother Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Doncic, bothered by his knee, is also not in his best form.
He shot the ball poorly against a worse Clippers defense.
OKC's defense is also deep, with Cason Wallace with his quick feet and quick hands – both features that make him well-suited to guard Kyrie – being another good guard for the Thunder defense.
The Rest of OKC's Defense
Multiple good wing defenders and Chet Holmgren embellish the rest of OKC's defense.
With efficient shooter Maxi Kleber out, Dallas' bigs are going to focus on attacking the basket, where they'll have to contend with Holmgren's rim protection.
Holmgren's rim protection quality is evident in the high total of field goal attempts that he defends at the rim per game and in his excellent ability to limit opposing efficiency at the rim.
With great perimeter defenders and the likes of Holmgren, OKC is well-suited to limit Dallas offensively.
OKC's Offense
The Mavericks are not remotely as well-equipped defensively.
Thunder offensive centerpiece Shai Gilgeous-Alexander does not have to deal with a Herb Jones-type player who can bother him.
Kleber's absence is huge because of his versatility, which would have made him a good switch candidate on ball-screens.
The Mavs now don't have a big who is comfortable along the perimeter, which is a problem against a pick-and-pop stud like the versatile Holmgren.
They've had to play Kleber more and bench Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford because of the poor perimeter play of the latter two bigs.
Dallas is one of the worse teams at limiting three-point efficiency, which is something that the Thunder, as the NBA's most efficient team from deep, can punish the Mavericks for.
OKC's stronger perimeter defense will be decisive in allowing the Thunder to win the battle from behind the arc, while Holmgren will help them win inside as well.
Best Bet: Thunder -3.5 at -112 with BetOnline
