CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Lost about 30 units last year (a little less than that posted I think, was choppy and/or a small loser the rest of the year but did do okay in October). This is on the heels of winning real good in baseball three of four years between 2011-2014, so let's root for an aberration last summer.
Thanks to robots and automation, my responsibilities as a line mover are all but over for now and won't ever return unless I go to work for a place that originates prices and/or moves off big and/or sharp action. These are the times we live in. That will give me more time for writeups and/or at least to post plays here daily.
* Most important thing I will say all year, and I try to say it repeatedly but rarely do I fit it into context once the games start playing. Perhaps in baseball moreso than other sports (not sure why), I understand the value of price much better. There are some sports where I like a side no matter the price. If I want to lay Alabama -34 against Middle Tennessee and the line comes 38, if I think Bama is going to win by 50, I will lay 38 even though I'm outside of my price-point. That's a raw example and you will rarely see me do that, but it's for context. In baseball, I made the Reds -150 today with these pitchers. Philly at +160 or more would be worth considering, especially since they are correlated to my OVER play in the game. Would consider at least a 2-team parlay with those two if i decided not to bet Philly outright. But say the game gets steamed down into the 30's...then I would consider Cincinnati -137 for example, small, and the lower it went, the more I would go. I trust my baseball numbers like gospel and know no one outworks me. Whether they are right or not, we'll just have to find out with the results on the field. *
Any questions, always feel free to ask and I'll get to them at my leisure.
To Monday:
Not sure who bet the Reddies total down, but despite these being two of the worst offensive teams in the league, LOOK AT WHO THE OPENING DAY STARTERS ARE. Hellickson throws 91-92 and has no movement on his balls. He's very easy to hit and hit hard. Wind blowing out 14 to right-center at the Great OVERican Ballpark. Iglesias showed some potential last season in getting 16 starts last summer but he still projects as no better than a mid-to-bottom of the rotation guy at the very best. Opening Day might overwhelm him. Waiting on an ump, but barring an "E" or "H" sighting, this will almost for sure be an OVER.
Waiting on roof status in Arizona but I will likely pass on a correlated parlay anyways considering I missed Colorado at the opener. Grienke goes from a pitcher's park to a hitter's haven and loses several strikes per month to pitch framing this season. Let's see how much it frustrates him as we get into the summer months. It's 91 today in Phoenix but will cool into the mid-80s at first pitch. Since it's a dry heat they'll prolly leave the roof open. Lean OVER with a good ump.
Wrong favorite in Arlington. Felix is 6-0 with a 1.49 in 8 opening day starts and was 5-0 with a 1.83 ERA against Texas in 2015. Hamels has yet to win on Opening Day, although only has a 2-start sample size to deal with. He did go 4-0 in Arlington last season (3.66 ERA) but I can't ignore Felix's dominance against Texas and on Opening Day, and he should be a small favorite.
The play: Seattle +120 medium 2u.
Total way too low in Cleveland, despite the wind blowing in. Two teams that are expected to have solid offenses and I don't expect either pitcher to go real deep. Boston is supposed to have upgraded their pen, but will have to prove it to me against a Tribe side that some oddsmakers supposedly think will break out on offense in 2016. On the other side, Boston has guys who are supposed to rake up and down the lineup. Will almost bet them OVER any total less than seven all season auto play. There won't be too many of them. Waiting on an ump, but this is an OVER bet barring a calamity.
Where did they get this price in Oakland? Anyone who read my season wins thoughts know that Oakland is better than what they look, and I'm not sold on these ChiSox changes. Gray went 14-7 and finished third in the Cy Young voting for a 68-win team last season. He's a certified ace and should rarely if ever be a home dog.
The play: Oakland +122 medium 2u.
Will be back with them totals later; that's it for the sides unless something really gets steamed way out of whack. GL today and this season!
:shake2:
Thanks to robots and automation, my responsibilities as a line mover are all but over for now and won't ever return unless I go to work for a place that originates prices and/or moves off big and/or sharp action. These are the times we live in. That will give me more time for writeups and/or at least to post plays here daily.
* Most important thing I will say all year, and I try to say it repeatedly but rarely do I fit it into context once the games start playing. Perhaps in baseball moreso than other sports (not sure why), I understand the value of price much better. There are some sports where I like a side no matter the price. If I want to lay Alabama -34 against Middle Tennessee and the line comes 38, if I think Bama is going to win by 50, I will lay 38 even though I'm outside of my price-point. That's a raw example and you will rarely see me do that, but it's for context. In baseball, I made the Reds -150 today with these pitchers. Philly at +160 or more would be worth considering, especially since they are correlated to my OVER play in the game. Would consider at least a 2-team parlay with those two if i decided not to bet Philly outright. But say the game gets steamed down into the 30's...then I would consider Cincinnati -137 for example, small, and the lower it went, the more I would go. I trust my baseball numbers like gospel and know no one outworks me. Whether they are right or not, we'll just have to find out with the results on the field. *
Any questions, always feel free to ask and I'll get to them at my leisure.
To Monday:
Not sure who bet the Reddies total down, but despite these being two of the worst offensive teams in the league, LOOK AT WHO THE OPENING DAY STARTERS ARE. Hellickson throws 91-92 and has no movement on his balls. He's very easy to hit and hit hard. Wind blowing out 14 to right-center at the Great OVERican Ballpark. Iglesias showed some potential last season in getting 16 starts last summer but he still projects as no better than a mid-to-bottom of the rotation guy at the very best. Opening Day might overwhelm him. Waiting on an ump, but barring an "E" or "H" sighting, this will almost for sure be an OVER.
Waiting on roof status in Arizona but I will likely pass on a correlated parlay anyways considering I missed Colorado at the opener. Grienke goes from a pitcher's park to a hitter's haven and loses several strikes per month to pitch framing this season. Let's see how much it frustrates him as we get into the summer months. It's 91 today in Phoenix but will cool into the mid-80s at first pitch. Since it's a dry heat they'll prolly leave the roof open. Lean OVER with a good ump.
Wrong favorite in Arlington. Felix is 6-0 with a 1.49 in 8 opening day starts and was 5-0 with a 1.83 ERA against Texas in 2015. Hamels has yet to win on Opening Day, although only has a 2-start sample size to deal with. He did go 4-0 in Arlington last season (3.66 ERA) but I can't ignore Felix's dominance against Texas and on Opening Day, and he should be a small favorite.
The play: Seattle +120 medium 2u.
Total way too low in Cleveland, despite the wind blowing in. Two teams that are expected to have solid offenses and I don't expect either pitcher to go real deep. Boston is supposed to have upgraded their pen, but will have to prove it to me against a Tribe side that some oddsmakers supposedly think will break out on offense in 2016. On the other side, Boston has guys who are supposed to rake up and down the lineup. Will almost bet them OVER any total less than seven all season auto play. There won't be too many of them. Waiting on an ump, but this is an OVER bet barring a calamity.
Where did they get this price in Oakland? Anyone who read my season wins thoughts know that Oakland is better than what they look, and I'm not sold on these ChiSox changes. Gray went 14-7 and finished third in the Cy Young voting for a 68-win team last season. He's a certified ace and should rarely if ever be a home dog.
The play: Oakland +122 medium 2u.
Will be back with them totals later; that's it for the sides unless something really gets steamed way out of whack. GL today and this season!
:shake2:
