The whole "loses one we shouldn't, win one we shouldn't every year" is both untrue and irrelevant to this particular matchup. Tech lost three games last year that they shouldn't have (i.e. games in which they were favored) and have dropped two such games this year. Furthermore, if I recall correctly, Texas Tech has only won one game in which they were not favored (Texas A&M, 2006) since the 2004 Holiday Bowl.
Over the past two seasons, Texas Tech has only beaten four teams with winning records; this number might actually decrease to three if Texas A&M loses to Texas on T+1. Since the 2005 Cotton Bowl season, the Red Raiders haven't shown that they can consistently beat "good" - hell, better than average - teams. Whenever they face someone decent (aside from Texas A&M), there always seems to be one side of the ball that fails to show up. Defense cost them dearly against Oklahoma State and Texas, while the offense cost them against Missouri and Oklahoma.
The only thing Tech has going for them in this match-up in my opinion is that it is a night game in the Jones, because the Sooners have looked fairly pedestrian in true road games this year.
Trust me, I would like nothing more than for the Red Raiders to whip the Sooners. I was down on the field during Tech's last drive two years ago against Oklahoma, jumping and high-fiving everyone in sight after the referee finally confirmed the play was a touchdown.
But if I'm looking to make money off of this game, I'm rolling with the Sooners.
(Also, I don't think the fact that Oklahoma faced a similarly-designed, if poorly executed, offense last week against Baylor should be overlooked.)
